Time for the third grand slam of the year. Get your strawberries and cream ready, we are hitting the hallowed courts of Wimbledon. Tennis expert, Ace is back with his previews and best bets for the fortnight ahead. First up, he takes you through the men's draw and finds you the best bets for each quarter, with odds thanks to Bet365!
Men's Wimbledon Betting Tips
Quarter 1
It’s hard to get too excited about anyone outside of Jannik Sinner. The weather doesn’t look to be hot enough to oppose him in any confident way (unless he gets off to a slow start against Miomir Kecmanovic first up), so there isn’t a strong desire to get too heavily involved in this section given Sinner is $1.20 to make the final four. The only player I would potentially consider is Denis Shapovalov, who I felt has played better in the grass swing than the results perhaps suggest, but the other option would be to simply take him to beat Sinner were they to meet. His volatility and ability to lose in straight sets is also the reason why he is value at longer odds given how high his ceiling can be. With the weather forecast suggesting warm conditions on their scheduled meeting date, perhaps the $67 to win the quarter is reasonable.
Quarter 2
Going a little wider in this quarter, with one player a little further down the market having caught my eye. If Novak Djokovic wins the quarter at $1.60 then fair play to him, but given his lack of tennis this year, and father time looming over his career, I have no issue with opposing the Serbian and I will tip my cap to him were he to make it to the semi finals here. I don’t have enough trust in Felix Auger-Aliassime to confidently step into the quarter winner price there. Joao Fonseca hasn’t played enough on grass for me to entertain here either, which leads us to the rest who are $12 and beyond. Alejandro Davidovich Fokina just came off his maiden ATP title, and Andrey Rublev’s best can match it with most players on tour, but the player that has caught my eye the most here is Learner Tien. The thing with Tien is he will very rarely just hand a victory to his opponent, and it will take a player to play very well to progress past Tien in this draw. I’d give Tien a decent chance against every other player in this quarter of the draw, so the $19 that is currently available is incredibly appealing.
Quarter 3
As an Australian, I would have loved to have been able to sit here and talk up my thoughts around Alex De Minaur making his way through to the semi final. Unfortunately, I have Ben Shelton as being more likely to make his way out of this quarter than anyone else here. Shelton’s ability to hold serve for an extended period of time, and the level he has produced at the best of 5 level in recent years, makes him a very tough opponent here. If Shelton were to inexplicably lose in the early rounds, I might look to consider De Minaur in the outright market in some capacity, however with Jakub Mensik, Matteo Berrettini, Flavio Cobolli, Karen Khachanov and Arthur Fils next in the market, I struggle to make a strong case for any of them. Fils just hasn’t played enough tennis due to injuries, but if he gets through his tricky round 1 match, he may be worth consideration.
Quarter 4
After winning his maiden grand slam title at Roland Garros, Alexander Zverev now sits here as the 2 seed and favourite to progress to the final four of the tournament. In a weird quirk, the second and third favourites for the quarter, Taylor Fritz and Jack Draper, meet in round 1!
For me, I think the players that are worth playing here are Frances Tiafoe and Alexander Bublik. If you want a more consistent level, then Tiafoe is the guy that appeals, however in terms of pure ceiling level, Alex Bublik may be worth entertaining at double figure odds.
If looking to go very wide in this quarter, you could take a look at Alex Michelsen at $151 at some books and as short as $41 elsewhere, so he may be worth a tiny bet as well given his ceiling, as is Matteo Arnaldi at $81. However, I am going to settle on Frances Tiafoe, who again presents as a player that is going to take some beating over the course of the best of 5 set format.
Suggested Bets
0.25 units Denis Shapovalov to win Quarter 1 at $67 at Bet365
0.75 units Learner Tien to win Quarter 2 at $19 at Bet365
0.75 units Ben Shelton to win Quarter 3 at $3.50 at Bet365
0.75 units Frances Tiafoe to win Quarter 4 at $8.50 at Bet365
