Welcome to our preview and horse racing betting tips for racing at Kensington on Saturday, August 17th.
There's nine races on today's card, with the track rated a Good 4 and the rail in the true position.
Best Bet: Race 7 - (4) Seaway
Best Value Bet: Race 8 - (5) Nicochet
Happy to stay out of the Highway to start the day. One that did appeal slightly at each way odds was (8) Elegent Ellen. She's placed in seven of her 10 career starts, including three wins, and she ran 2nd over this track and distance in a very similar race last preparation. She resumes from a spell today and has a good first up record, she'll go forward to probably lead and from there she should give a good sight. At $13 she's a decent option if you want to play small in the race.
(5) Wimlah is flying but just can't manage to get her head in front again for one reason or another. She simply got too far back two starts ago but she ratted off a really good final sectional, before being beaten a nose last start. Comes into this on the quick back-up, if she's not flat from last weekend then she'll go very close to winning this again. (2) Velocita will appreciate getting back onto firm ground and this is a suitable race for her third up from a spell. (1) Connemara just keeps finding one better but her formlines are good. (7) Bubbles Ball has yet to finish out of the top two from eight career starts. Backing Wimlah, saving on Velocita.
(10) Maddi Rocks is a filly I have a bit of time for. She ran 2nd to California Zimbol on debut, before winning her second start at Canterbury over 1250m. She went straight out for a spell after that and returns for the first time today. She's had one very quiet trial leading into this, where she was ridden by JMac, but with 52kg today Kathy O'Hara is booked for the ride. Barrier 10 is a bit sticky but I like the price we're getting today, with $5.50 on offer. I think there's a bit more to come from her this campaign. (9) Pandemic was very well backed on debut and is the one to beat, while (5) Making Whoopee can make the step up in class at each way odds.
This could be a two-horse race. (2) Royal Witness is primed for this, third up from a spell, back to firm ground and returns to a track and distance he is undefeated at. He's trialled well since his second up run and I think he's in this up to his ears. (7) God Of Thunder returns to the races asa gelding for the first time. He won first up last prep and he's trialled well leading into today's race. He'll go forward from his wide barrier and be tough to run down on the Kenso track. We're getting $5.00 and $3.60 respectively - happy to back both.
Small field and a few unconvincing horses engaged here. Going to side with the best jockey in the race which is clearly JMac, who rides the Godolphin horse (6) Watchdog. He draws the rail and there looks to be very little speed in the race, so he may well kick through to lead. He's placed in all three starts at this track and althugh he's not the most genuine horse, I'm banking on JMac to control the race. (9) Tour Down Under comes over from Melbourne and is the rank outsider in the race, though he's not completely hopeless third up here.
Looks a race in two between (13) Wolfe and (7) So You Win. Wolfe returns from a spell after winning two of his three wins last prep. He's now won four from five overall. This stable will have him fit enough for 1800m first up and he'll roll forward to lead with the light weight on his back. So You Win turned it up as the short-priced favourite last start. He put two wins together over this distance prior to that and James McDonald jumps aboard from the inside gate today. If Wolfe is below his best, So You Win will serve it right up to him. His stablemate (10) Savacool is a bit of a non-winner but probably represents any value in the race.
Happy to stick with (4) Seaway who won in Listed company last time out over 1500m at Rosehill. The key to that victory was getting back onto firm ground. He drops back slightly in trip to 1400m today but there's no reason he can't win again today. He'll get the firm ground he needs once again, he'll roll forward to sit on speed and he should take plenty of catching. There will be plenty of eyes on the French import for Godolphin (6) Wren's Day, who won a trial leading into his Australian debut today. I'll take him on first up here given he's never won below 1600m, but I did a similar thing with Avilius when he made his Australian debut and it came back to bite me. (11) Bangkok is flying and can run well again.
Backing two here but this is a tough race with a few unknowns. (8) Shock Alert improved as I expected last start, running 2nd when we secured the early odds of $34. He's third up now and finds another race he can be competitive in. He drops in weight and will roll forward from the wide gate, which should see him be very competitive. (5) Nicochet gets Glen Boss aboard today, which isn't necessarily a positive, but he found the right circumstances to win last start, namely a firm track. His form at the start of this prep was good enough for him to win a race like this and he can handle the step up in grade after winning last start. He's a decent each way price. I'll wait one more run to back (6) Bull Market, who should be ready to win next time third up.
A few chances to end the day here. (1) All Too Royal represents a decent each way chance at $8.00. He's first up from a spell after putting five wins on the board last preparation. He's won two from three when first up and has run 2nd in both starts at this track. Goes well on firm ground and hopefully he is firm in the market. (4) Goldfinch is flying, having run 2nd in its past three starts. I see no reason why he should be $18 here. (5) Mister Songman is the favourite and rates well. He returns from a spell and last prep he resumed with a nose defeat to Kapajack over this distance. He's going to be better suited up in trip but the stable will have him ready.
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