Welcome to our horse racing preview and betting tips for racing on Monday, January 27th.
It's a public holiday in Australia which means there's plenty of good metropolitan racing! Our focus today is on the meetings at Sandown Lakeside and Warwick Farm, find our best bets for each track below!
I'm not big on betting heavily into two-year-old races when there is horses on debut, but I'm keen to have something small each way on (3) Baba Vanga at $9.00. This Jason Warren-trained filly is bred by Nostradamus, who himself was a speedster, and she showed plenty of zip in the first of her two jumpouts leading into today. She was asked to extend toward the end of the trial and she went from behind the leaders to a few lengths in front in the blink of an eye. Her second jumpout was much quieter and she wasn't put under much pressure at all. Craig Williams is an eye-catching jockey booking and with eight runners in the field, we're getting paid for three places here, so with $10 the win and $2.38 the place on offer, I'm keen to get involved. One of the favourites is (6) Kartini Day for Ellerton and Zahra and Damian Lane. She won her jumpout but I didn't think there was anything special about it so at the current price I'd be pretty happy to oppose her.
How on earth (4) Ellis Park is $6.50 here, I'll never know! He's a 3YO gelding by Dissident on debut here over the 1300m. He's had two jumpouts at Flemington leading into his debut and he's won both of them, settling up on speed before finding the line nicely out in front. Again, it's noteworthy that Craig Williams takes the ride on him on debut and I'm fairly sure he was piloting him in at least his last jumpout. This is a decent little maiden but with that said, there's hardly anything with metropolitan form so nothing particularly scares me in the field. I think Ellis Park is a great each way bet at $6.50/$2.30.
Pretty keen on the $9.00 about (1) Sizzleme here and I'll be having a good each way bet. The 4YO mare resumed in a BM64 at Caulfield against the boys and finished third-last, beaten 3.65L. But I wouldn't be dropping off her on that effort. She's had five starts when first up from a spell and has never finished in the placings, so clearly she always needs her first run back. Second up from a spell, she's had three starts for a win and two 2nds, so she tends to improve significantly with a run under her belt. First up last prep she finished 11th of 14, beaten 6L in a Group 2. She then came out second up and ran 2nd to Mr Quickie in the Mornington Guineas, not a bad form line at all! The campaign prior to that, she ran 5th in maiden grade first up, then came out second up and bolted in by 5L in a BM70. That shows just how much she improves from her first up run to her second up run. She gets a little drop in grade here taking on her own sex, the jockey booking could be a bit better and so could the barrier draw, but at $9.00/$3.20, I have to have a decent each way bet here. (4) Hamslette ($5.50) and (8) Sorority Lass ($5.00) are the two biggest dangers in my opinion.
(6) Grand Promenade is a lightly-raced 4YO for Ciaron Maher and David Eustace, with just three career starts under the belt. He's a promising stayer in the making who comes into this off a dominant win at Warrnambool over 1700m, where he bolted in by 4L. Prior to that he ran two placings at Sandown Hillside, where he appeared to be in need of more ground. The step up to 2100m looks ideal and even though it's a fairly sharp rise for such an inexperienced horse, I think he's capable of handling it and from the good draw he should get a gun run throughout. He'll be very hard to beat. (1) Gazzara can improve and (8) Taikun Warrior is racing well.
Once again, I'm keen on a couple at good odds here. I was really keen to back (2) Confluence last week but he was scratched from that race and comes here instead. He ran midfield behind Montenegro Man first up at Caulfield, beaten 3.8L. That race has proved to be a strong form reference, with Montenegro Man running 2nd at his next start and Bam's On Fire (who ran 2nd to him) then coming out and winning its next start. Confluence's record suggests he will really improve with that first up run under his belt. He's only placed twice from six starts when first up from a spell, but he's got two wins and two placings from four starts when second up. Big jockey change today with Damian Lane taking over from Damian Thornton, he should be up on speed and should take plenty of running down at $7.50/$2.88. I also think the $34 about (3) Mai Shiny Choice is way over the odds. He won first up at Warrnambool despite sitting wide without cover throughout, and he was three-wide the trip once again last start when midfield at Stawell. He's placed in four of his six starts when third up from a spell so he's a knockout hope at big odds.
Keen to be with (4) Positive Peace here, who we can back each way at the $4.60/$2.00 on offer. She ran 2nd first up here at Warwick Farm in a 1200m fillies and mares race, beaten half-a-length. She's second up today, up to 1400m against her own sex once again. She's undefeated from her two previous second up runs and both were over this distance. James McDonald rode her first up and sticks with her today. She finds a race with moderate speed in it so she should land right up there from her good barrier draw, and Bjorn Baker has trained six winners from 17 starters at Warwick Farm this year (where he trains). I think she'll run a huge race, but she has made a habit of running 2nd throughout her career so the each way option at the odds is probably safest.
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