Welcome to our horse racing preview and betting tips for racing at Happy Valley on Wednesday, October 23rd.
We're on the C+3 course tonight, which the the widest rail, so typically it helps to be up on speed and runners will fan wide in the straight.
Check out our best bets from tonight's card below!
Happy Valley Racing Tips: Wednesday, October 23rd
We will kick off our betting for the night in Race 2, where I'll be playing it very simple on two runners. It appears hard to make a case for (5) After Me, who is yet to finish closer than 5th in 14 starts in Hong Kong, but he's getting my money tonight. He dropped into Class 5 this prep for the first time since arriving and he hasn't been beaten far in either start. In fact, first up he ran the fastest final 400m of the race against a couple of horses he lines up against again tonight. He's drawn awkwardly in both of those runs and has been caught back and wide. Tonight he draws barrier 1 on the C+3 course, which is a gold mine over 1200m. Hopefully he can use the gate to his advantage and he finds a winnable race. (6) Exponents also finds himself up to his ears in this. He's at least got two wins and six placings to his name, and he's run 2nd on two occasions over this track and distance, including two starts ago when beaten half-a-length. He was trapped three-wide on that occasion so it was a good effort to finish as close as he did. He drops back to 1000m tonight which is a little query but he's also drawn favourably in barrier 3. Between them, barriers 1 and 3 have combined for eight of the 13 winners over the 1000m on the C+3 course at the Valley this season. After Me and Exponents are $4.40 and $4.20 respectively, will be backing both.
Also backing: (6) Exponents $4.20
Another two I'll be backing here, with Moreira and Purton seemingly with very good chances. (9) Mischievous Sundae looks ready to win now. He won a trial after his first up run at Sha Tin and took that form into his last start here at Happy Valley, where he rattled off a better 800m-400m split and a similar final 400m split to Hardly Swears, which I think is a horse capable of going through the grades (he's won his past two with his devastating turn of speed). I think that's a great form reference for this. Mischievous Sundae started from barrier 11 on that occasion but he's drawn better in barrier 7 tonight, so I'd expect Moreira to try and have him further forward in midfield. He's the one to beat. Purton rides (10) Speedy Wally who has a good record at this track and distance. Three of his past four starts have been here over the 1650m at the Valley and it's bred a win and two 2nds. Purton jumps on tonight in a big jockey change, but the negative is barrier 11. He's had the luxury of barriers 1 and 2 the past two starts so barrier 11 makes things a bit harder for him. With that said, he's racing well and should get his chance with the champ in the saddle. Happy to back Mischevous Sundae ($2.90) and have something small on SPeedy Wally ($6.00).
Value: (10) Speedy Wally $6.00
(9) Mischievous Sundae
$2.90
My best value bet of the night comes up here in the form of (4) Golden Glory, who I think is a terrific place chance at the very least. Now, on his first up run, you'd say he'd need to improve significantly to be competitive in this, which he does, but he's done it numerous times before in similar circumstances. He always needs his first up run. He's never run a place first up from eight starts, but second up he has two wins and two 2nds from eight starts. Back in March 2017, he finished 5th first up before being beaten a head second up at this track and distance. Fast forward to October 2017, he was beaten 7L in 9th first up, before winning by 1.5L second up at this track and distance. March this year, he finished last beaten 8L first up, before being beaten a neck second up at this track and distance. There is a definite pattern there and every single one of his wins and placings in Hong Kong have come over the 1200m at Happy Valley. He's drawn well in barrier 4, should get a beautiful run and with $11/$3.50 on offer, I am very keen to back him each way (much more on a place line than a win line).
If you backed (6) Reliable Team at odds on first up, you probably feel obliged to take $3.10 tonight, but of course there is concern after his poor showing first up. His first two career starts were very impressive, winning the second of those by 3.5L. But after a good trial leading into this prep, he put up a very weak effort at his first run back. He pulled up with no issues, no abnormalities and no excuses, so they've tried their hand at 1650m tonight to allow him to settle into the race a little bit quicker. He's drawn perfectly in barrier 6 and he should just be allowed to find his feet early rather than be bustled out to be up on speed. I'll give him another chance tonight because he was too bad to be true first up. Hopefully the step up in trip does the trick here.
Normally I'd be betting against a horse taking a 6kg hike in the weights, but (5) Le Terroir gave them a galloping lesson first up and draws the inside pole once again, which as I've already mentioned is a gold mine over this track and distance with the rail in the C+3 position. There looks very little speed in the race so he should be able to jump and find the front again, and if he does, he's going to be awfully hard to run down. He has three wins and two 2nds in his career and all of those have been in his past five starts. He's absolutely flying and of the two odds-on runners to close out the card, he's the one I'd rather be backing.
