Welcome to our horse racing preview and betting tips for racing at Flemington on Saturday, June 20th.
After a successful day at The Valley last week, Melbourne racing is back at Flemington for a great day of winter racing. The rail is out 11 metres and the track is rated a soft 5, with rain expected during the day, so monitor it as the day progresses. On pace horses are generally suited with this setup so I’ll be leaning that way early in the day.
Find the race-by-race preview and betting tips for Flemington from Trent Crebbin below!
Best Bet: Race 7 - (1) King Of Hastings (also backing Run To Perfection) * Use Palmerbet Price Push *
Next Best: Race 6 - (3) Alfarris
Best Value: Race 8 - (9) Inn Keeper * Use Palmerbet Race Rescue *
A tricky little BM90 to kick things off. (3) Man Of Peace comes down from Sydney in great form. I’d expect them to try and lead from barrier 2 as usual, and the claim for Poy is a very handy one because his last 5 weights read: 52, 51, 55, 49 & 51.5. The form around him is very good too, knocking off Outrageous two back and beating home Phaistos/Dr Drill last start (who both had excuses). Last time at the 1600m he ran 2nd to the group class Mugatoo. The other on pace horse is (6) Brilliant Concept who has won his last two on heavy tracks. His form probably isn’t as strong, but he did thrash Persan two back which is solid. The other main chance is (2) Danon Roman who was good first up, but he’s won two races in Australia: A Peninsula Cup by a nose with 6kg less than Heptagon, and a Yarra Glen cup in a dead heat. Happy to play the percentage horse here with Man Of Peace.
A typically tough 2yo race with a lot to line up. It was an impressive debut by (3) Cherry Tortini, racing wide (with cover) before striding away to win well. The form has stacked up, with 2nd horse Not A Zak running a narrow 3rd at The Valley, and Mystique Falcon winning at Sandown. He’s a fairly big horse that should eat up 1400m. I’m confident (5) Alycone can turn the tables on (2) Albarado from their debut, but he does still map rearwards which could be an issue. (1) Chequerboard is 2/2 and narrowly beat (14) Insaaf last start. (12) South Parade was given no hope from last at Mornington and can settle closer. I’ve got Cherry Tortini on top, but I don’t think he’ll firm much so happy to shop late for a better price if possible.
Mares race over the 1420m. It’d be rude not to start with (8) Honey Esprit, who won for us at $65 last start over this T/D. The form out of that race is already stacking up, with 2nd placed Holbein winning a good race at The Valley last week. 4th placed Mount Popa unfortunately goes around 20 minutes after this race at Randwick as the early favourite. She’ll be in it for a long way again. (4) Snogging gets Olly fresh off 5 weeks, but she’s very hard to catch Same goes for (2) Great Duchess who was good first up swooping at Caulfield. Not sure what to do with (12) So You Swing who was good first up but has had a long break with two odd jumpouts since. One at double figures that can figure is (9) El Questro. She was only 1.35L off Alfa Oro first up over 1100m, running the 3rd fastest last 400/200m of the race. Her 2nd up record is excellent and has a good SP profile in races against some of these horses. The map is a touch tricky but if she can get to midfield with cover, she’s certainly good enough, especially at $4 the place.
A lot of the chances come through the race won by (5) Persan at this T/D two weeks ago. I tipped him that day, and in a race devoid of pace he was able to sit handy and slip away, but I’m happy to jump off today. The run of that race was clearly (3) Coolth, who as predicted just got too far back off a slow tempo. He ran every sectional substantially faster than the next best horse and gets a 2kg weight swing on the winner. The obvious danger is (1) Right You Are who Olly sticks with over Coolth. I’m not sold on him however. His win at Caulfield was workmanlike after getting every favour. The step up to 2000m is probably what he’s looking for now, but he only beat (4) Independent Road (who was in the inferior going) by 2L, whereas Coolth went straight past him. The run of that race was (8) Grinzinger Alle. If he can hold a spot from barrier 1 and gets the breaks he’ll run well. (7) Blue Ocean and (2) Hypercane have obvious chances and both have been good in similar races. It’s a very open contest, but there’s more pace here and Coolth is the horse with the most upside at start number 4 so I’ll lean his way.
1000m dash and it’s a pretty average race. Most of these aren’t 1000m horses, nor do they have straight track experience. If she gets a run, (16) Pinyin is probably the best horse in the race, and going Jess Eaton to Olly won’t hurt, but the short course worries me. She beat home (11) Montenegro Man first up, who was disappointing after racing keen but does have some 1000m form. (4) Pariano is 4 from 8 at the distance but hasn’t raced down the straight. She’s in good form and won off a three week break recently, which is the scenario here. You’d expect (6) Global Gift to need way further than the 1000m but he’s an interesting one. (12) The Last Napoleon will improve 2nd up. He comfortably beat recent Golden Topaz 2nd placegetter Reward With Return when last 2nd up. With very little confidence I’ll put him on top, but it’ll come down to the horse getting the best steer in the best part of the track.
Up to 2520m for the stayers and it’s an intriguing contest. The favourite is (8) Arty Lucas who is in great form. He ran 2nd here over 1800m in between two dominant victories, the latest as a $1.22 shot. Billy Egan sticks and he maps to sit just behind the speed. I’m not sold on him at 2500m, but he should get every chance to run it out. They tried to be more positive on (7) Sin To Win last start, rolling forward after a slow start but he didn’t finish off. He’s left himself with too much to do all preparation, so I’ll be against again today. (4) Chapada knocked off Masaff last start and finally got another win. He’s actually been racing very well lately, and could go on with it here, but I’ll be against. I’m keen on (3) Alfarris. He wasn’t far off Chapada when first up over 2000m, before coming home the fastest in every sectional from the 1600m to home. His last third up run was a win at this T/D, beating King Of Leogrance. Before that he was only 2.3L off Surprise Baby after racing wide. Willo sticks from barrier 8 who can just assess the early speed, find cover midfield or slightly worse, and he’ll be storming home. (5) Lord Belvedere can improve on a drier track- he finished 2nd to Super Titus in the UK over a similar distance which is very comparable. He could start 50s on the exchange and that’s overs.
On to the feature of the day, the Creswick Stakes over 1200m. The favourite is (1) King Of Hastings, and he’s impossible to knock. He was excellent first up here over 1000m running a narrow 2nd to Prezado, before coming out in the Swan Hill Golden Topaz and walking in against the older horses. He only carries 4kg more than the bottom weights, and 2kg more than most of the field. Put simply, he’s the best horse in this race and should be winning. The only horse that scares me is (8) Run To Perfection. This NZ colt was a touch disappointing first up, starting $4.40 EF and finishing 2L away in 7th. He was giving the winner 5kg there, and pulled up with the thumps, so there’s cause for excuse. The run that jumps off the page is a 2.5L 2nd to Catalyst in a group 3, which is easily the best form in the race. We saw Grand De Flora improve lengths for Danny O’Brien on Wednesday, and I think that could be the case here. Of the others, (7) I Am Eloquent was very good first up behind Xilong but could want further already, while (5) Broadwayandfourth keeps racing well but will be a long way back again. Very happy to play King Of Hastings and Run To Perfection. Make sure you use the Palmerbet Price Push product to get better value for our Best of the Day!
Very open race. I think (1) Heptagon is very easy to take on. He was dominant in the Swan Hill Cup but rises 5kg and will need luck from barrier 1. He can win, but he’s poisonous at the odds. The map is crucial for a few of these drawn wide. If Rawiller can find a handy spot for (9) Inn Keeper I’m confident he’ll be in the finish. He was a close 3rd in the Wangoom, should’ve nearly beaten (17) Victoria Star at Cranbourne giving that horse 7kg, drew barrier 1 at Caulfield in the inferior ground, before a solid 3rd behind King Of Hastings last start. 1400m is some query but he wasn’t far off some handy ones at his only attempt. There’s a host of other chances, including (6) Vassilator who finally got another win last start and (5) Romancer who wasn’t far off that horse last start. Could’ve easily still missed the winner, but if Inn Keeper can get the right run, he’s flying and will be there at big odds. Make sure you use the Palmerbet Race Rescue product to ensure your stake is returned if our Best value finishes 2nd or 3rd!
Good 1100m contest to finish. (1) Order Of Command is the deserved favourite, coming off a strong Wangoom win with 62kg before finishing 5th, beaten 2.8L in the group 1 Goodwood behind Trekking & Gytrash. (4) Rich Charm got back to near his best last start, coming home very strongly to just miss Great Again. He’s got a great 3rd up record and his best would win this, but I’d prefer a wider draw and 1200m here. (2) Prezado is flying, winning his last three, all over the straight 1000m. He’s never won from 5 attempts at this extra 100m, but he’s also never been in this form. (5) Milwaukee started favourite last start but dropped out to finish last. Not sure you can back him at single figures off that. I’ve got Order Of Command on top, and I’ll wait to see how the track plays. If the inside in straight races is holding up I could save on Rich Charm, if not I’m happy to risk him and just back the topweight.
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