Michael Lee returns with esports betting predictions for three Dota 2 matches in Dota Pro Circuit (DPC) Southeast Asia Tour 1: Division I on Wednesday, January 11. Today he covers Team SMG vs Execration, Bleed Esports vs Fnatic, and BOOM Esports vs Talon Esports.
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Esports Betting Tips: Wednesday January 11th
Team SMG vs Execration
DPC SEA Tour 1: Div I
Execration celebrated their first victory of the 2023 DPC season on Monday when they defeated Talon Esports (2-0) convincingly, despite entering the match as 3.00 underdogs. Seeing Execration win wasn’t too shocking, though. They had a solid season in 2022 and were one of the top lower division teams, so it was only a matter of time before Execration started making waves in the big boy league.
Team SMG have yet to play a match this season, and they haven’t played an official game since November, when they exited Asia Pacific Predator League 2022 in seventh-eighth place. On a more positive note, SMG have made just one roster change by signing Xavius, so they should have a strong synergy. But seeing how they haven’t played a match in two months is concerning.
Most esports bookmakers have priced SMG and Execration at the same odds, but we’re getting 2.00 on Execration with PickleBet, which is a surprisingly good offer. I wouldn’t overreact to their success against Talon Esports, but I am far more confident in Execration than the rusty SMG.
Execration to win
$2 (1 Unit)
Bleed Esports vs Fnatic
DPC SEA Tour 1: Div I
Bleed Esports lost their opening match of the 2023 DPC season against Blacklist International, but I must praise them for winning one map. A loss is still a loss, but Bleed Esports shouldn’t have come close to winning that game, and yet they took a map from arguably the most stacked SEA Dota 2 team.
You could say that Bleed Esports benefited from Blacklist International’s lack of synergy, which is a fair argument. But the early-season shenanigans and upset results don’t stop after just one round of play.
Fnatic kicked off the 2023 season with a devastating defeat against Geek Fam, which was just one of many upset results SEA DPC produced on Monday. But I wouldn’t call it an upset as much as I would evaluate that game as a poor showing from Fnatic.
They were clearly the weaker team on the day, and considering Fnatic have signed two new players in November, I expect them to need a bit more time to find their ground. I wouldn’t write Fnatic off entirely, but they might be a bit less consistent for the first week of the season.
This seems like a match that can go both ways. Bleed Esports have shown more on day one, but if we go purely off the roster talent, Fnatic look stronger. This should be a messy game that can easily extend to three maps.
Over 2.5 maps
$2 (1 Unit)
BOOM Esports vs Talon Esports
DPC SEA Tour 1: Div I
BOOM Esports were the undisputed best Southeast Asian Dota 2 team last season. They won Tour 1, Regional Finals, and Tour 3. Moreover, they placed second in DPC Tour 2 and qualified for PGL Arlington Major 2022, ESL One Malaysia 2022, and The International 2022.
BOOM didn’t achieve much in international events, but they were nearly unstoppable domestically, so it’s fair to have high expectations for this team. But perhaps we should tame our expectations a bit following the major roster overhaul, which saw the arrival of three new players in Natsumi, Xepher, and xNova.
Although all great players, I expect BOOM to need a bit more time to gel together and form a strong synergy. They performed well at Mansion Invitational earlier this week, but they won just two series, against Polaris and Bleed eSports, who beat them 2-0 in the finals.
Talon Esports stumbled on day one of DPC SEA 2023 and lost against Execration. It was an unexpected result, but one loss doesn’t mean that Talon are weak. This is a fairly stacked roster that should compete for a top-four finish – the only question is how long Talon Esports need to find traction.
BOOM are priced as favourites for this match, but that’s because they were so dominant last season, and as noted, I can’t confidently say they’ll be as good in 2023. Perhaps later in the year, but for now, this seems like a match between evenly-matched teams, so I’m taking Talon Esports at 2.25.
Talon Esports to win
$2.25 (1 Unit)
