Another night, another round of esports betting tips to look forward to from our gaming expert Michael Lee. This Tuesday, the 13th of July, Michael focuses in on the Pinnacle Cup II and the LPL 2021 Summer for his best bets.
Pinnacle Cup II
MIBR are 2-2 at Pinnacle Cup II with wins against HAVU (2-1) and Lyngby Vikings (2-1), and two losses against Endpoint (1-2) and Young Ninjas (0-2). While competing at Pinnacle Cup II, MIBR also attended IEM Cologne, where they lost both of their Play-In matches against Renegades and Team Spirit and ended the tournament in 12th-16th place.
Even though MIBR lost both of the IEM Cologne games, they still forced Spirit into overtime (18-22). That is quite impressive, considering Spirit are the 14th highest-rated team in the world. MIBR, meanwhile, are ranked 53rd.
Like MIBR, Team Fiend won two and lost two of their four games at Pinnacle Cup II. They won against Young Ninjas (2-1) and Double Poney (2-0) but lost against SINNERS Esports (0-2) and HAVU (0-2). Fiend also participated at Elisa Invitational, where they finished ninth-12th after getting eliminated by SKADE (1-2).
This will be the first meeting between MIBR and Team Fiend. The latter are expected to win, but they seem a bit overrated.
Team Fiend were competing against some of the top teams in the world at the start of the year, and while they have done relatively well at the time, it’s been nearly four months since Team Fiend faced a proper team.
This is a 50/50 match without a clear winner. MIBR have been playing much better across the last few weeks, and the experience of playing against top teams in Cologne should be enough for the Brazilians to outlast Team Fiend.
LPL 2021 Summer
Bilibili Gaming and TT Gaming will lock horns on Tuesday, July 13, in Week 6 of the 2021 League of Legends Pro League (LPL) summer season. Bilibili Gaming are expected to dominate this match, as they have been the more successful team this split.
Bilibili Gaming are 5-4 on the season, whereas TT Gaming 1-8. There is obviously a large gap between the two, however, TT Gaming had a very tough schedule behind them, so I would be careful not to overreact to their record.
Throughout the season, TT Gaming played JD Gaming, Team WE, Top Esports, FunPlus Phoenix, LNG Esports, Victory Five, Oh My God, Rare Atom, and Edward Gaming. TT Gaming ended up losing all of those bouts except for their 2-0 win against Victory Five.
While you can’t be too optimistic about a team that is 1-8, six of their losses happened against teams that are ranked inside the top-six in the league. Team WE and Oh My God are only exceptions, yet even those two teams are easily LPL playoffs candidates.
Statistically, TT Gaming are still a much worse team than Bilibili Gaming, but, we have to go back and take into account the quality of teams TT had to face compared to BIlibili Gaming. Interestingly, TT Gaming have a 58% First Blood rate and 52% First Turret rate, which is up to par with Bilibili Gaming’s 56% First Blood rate and 52% First Turret rate.
I wouldn’t bet on Bilibili Gaming at 1.16, as this price overrates them a bit. There might be some value in backing TT Gaming with a +1.5 map handicap, but I like the First Blood and First Turrent bets better. As noted, TT have been just as impressive in achieving first blood and killing first turrets as Bilibili Gaming, yet the bookmakers still offer odds of 2.04 and 2.36.
LPL 2021 Summer
LNG Esports have been phenomenal this split and are at 7-2 after nine fixtures. Team WE were not as convincing and now hold a 4-4 record ahead of this match.
However, it’s worth pointing out that LNG had a much easier schedule than Team WE, so their record likely isn’t showing the accurate picture. While they have beaten some good teams, LNG aren’t as good as how it seems.
These two teams are statistically very close in gold per minute and gold difference per minute. Interestingly, Team WE have a higher first tower rate (50%) than LNG Esports (34%) which could present a solid betting opportunity. However, the first blood rate is in favour of LNG, who boast a 43% success rate to Team WE’s 35%.
PickleBet have Team WE as underdogs on the first turret market (1.90), which is a good spot to take a position on.
On the moneyline market, I would prefer Team We over LNG Esports. Although they’re four wins short of catching up to LNG, Team WE had to endure a much more challenging schedule, and I don’t believe their record would be as bad if they faced the same teams as LNG.
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