Michael Lee returns with his esports betting previews for three Rainbow Six Siege matches in the third stage of the European League. Today, he looks at Team Secret vs MNM Gaming, Heroic vs Wolves Esports, and Rogue vs Outsiders, who will meet on Monday, October 17.
Esports Betting Tips: Monday, October 17th
Team Secret vs MNM Gaming - EUL Stage 3
The European League still has four more rounds left to play before we know which four teams will head to Sweden for the Winter Major. And as it stands now, all ten squads are still in the race for the Major ticket. And while technically, any team can make it, Team Secret’s chances look fairly slim.
Team Secret enter the sixth round with four points and a 0-2-0-3 record, including back-to-back defeats against the Outsiders (4-7) and Wolves Esports (4-7). On a more positive note, Team Secret won two games this stage, albeit a month ago, against G2 Esports (8-7) and Natus Vincere (8-7), which is hardly worth celebrating.
MNM Gaming are in a much better spot, with a 2-1-0-2 record and two wins from their last three games – against Natus Vincere (7-4) and Rogue (8-7). But that stretch also includes a tough 2-7 loss against Wolves Esports.
Results-wise, MNM Gaming have looked better at this stage, but not by much. They took care of business against weaker teams but were somewhat underwhelming when faced with tough opponents – except for their round 3 clash with Rogue.
In a perfect world, MNM Gaming should win, and I have no problems seeing them priced as the favourites. But they’re not consistent enough for me to believe they’ll crush Team Secret, as many expect them to. I expect Secret to put up a fight and force a close game that can easily go into overtime.
Team Secret +2.5 rounds
$1.83 (1 Unit)
Heroic vs Wolves Esports - EUL Stage 3
Wolves Esports are 3-0-1-1 with 10 points, which is good for second place in the standings. Over Stage 3, they’ve already beaten Outsiders (7-3), MNM Gaming (7-2), and Team Secret (7-4), but they also lost against G2 Esports (7-5) and Team BDS (6-8).
That’s quite a strange mix of results that shows no clear pattern. In some games, the Wolves were dominant, but then there were games where they looked very weak and disorganised. On a more positive note, the Wolves are on a two-game winning streak, so they should be in good form.
Heroic are 2-2-0-1 with 10 points to their name and a +5 round difference, which sits them below Team BDS and Wolves with +5 and +8 differences. Like Wolves, Heroic have produced quite a mixed bag of results, beating G2 (7-4), NaVi (8-6) and TT9 (7-5), and Outsiders (8-7), but lost against BDS (4-7) in round four.
But while Heroic have been collecting points, their overtime wins against NaVi and Outsiders leave much to be desired. Had Heroic won those games a bit more convincingly, they would surely enter this match as the favourites; instead, they’re priced as 2.10 underdogs to Wolves, at 1.65.
The offered odds are justifiable, mainly due to the Wolves’ solid form ahead of this bout and the fact that Wolves won against Heroic (7-4) in July. But while Wolves Esports seem stronger, I don’t believe any team should be favoured over the other.
This match is a complete coinf-flip that will be decided on the team’s daily form. Therefore, I have to take Heroic at 2.10.
Heroic to win
$2.10 (1 Unit)
Rogue vs Outsiders - EUL Stage 3
Rogue are priced as 1.44 favourites to defeat Outsiders, which is more than fair. They’ve been playing well at this stage and enter the fourth round with a 3-0-2-0 record, which includes wins against TT9 (7-4), G2 (7-2), and Team BDS (7-2).
Even though Rogue also lost against MNM Gaming (7-8) and Natus Vincere (6-8), those losses happened in round three and one, respectively. Since then, Rogue have looked like an entirely different team – as evident in their combined score of 14-4 across the last two rounds of play.
Similarly to Rogue, Outsiders have started to play better lately. Even though they’re 1-2 across their last three outings, Outsiders forced Team BDS (6-8) and Heroic (7-8) to overtime (6-8) and won convincingly against Team Secret (4-7).
Outsiders have shown some improvement, but the question remains – are they good enough to defeat Rogue? It is possible since they’ve done it before, but at the same time, it’s extremely tough to doubt Rogue and the form they’re in. Over 10.5 rounds is not a bad bet here, but I prefer Rogue to get it done with at least three rounds to spare.
Rogue -2.5 rounds
$1.83 (1 Unit)
