Michael Lee is back with more Dota 2 betting previews and predictions for Monday, December 27. Today's menu has three tiebreaker matches at Dota 2 Champions League Season 6, featuring three teams vying for the final two tickets leading into the playoffs.
Esports Betting Tips: Monday, December 27th
Neimga Gaming vs V-Gaming
Dota 2 Champions League Season 6
Nemiga Gaming and V-Gaming will clash in the final tiebreaker round at Dota 2 Champions League Season 6 on Monday, in their fourth meeting of the tournament. They first met back on December 18, when Nemiga won 2-0, adding another victory (1-0) in the first round of the playoffs on Friday, December 24.
But while Nemiga were the more successful team in their first two meetings with V-Gaming, they couldn't deliver in the second round of the tiebreakers, when Nemiga lost 0-1.
Their past results would suggest that Nemiga are better, but there are a few things to consider. In their first meeting, when Nemiga won 2-0, V-Gaming had to play with two stand-ins.
Even their first two matches in the tiebreakers featured stand-ins, only this time, it was Nemiga who were playing with a substitute - Oleg "Lodine" Kvasha instead of Ivan "VANSKOR" Skorokhod. We have no information about whether Nemiga and V-Gaming will have their full rosters available on Monday, but VANSKOR likely won't be available again.
This puts Nemiga in a tough position since they were struggling without VANSKOR last time out. Even though the teams went 1-1 in the tiebreakers, V-Gaming were far more convincing and should have won both bouts. I must trust V-Gaming to deliver on Monday and will be backing them at 1.85.
V-Gaming vs Brame
Dota 2 Champions League Season 6
On Friday, V-Gaming won the first tiebreaker match with Brame but had to admit defeat in the rematch, meaning they're 1-2 in the head-to-head. Brame already won this match on December 21 with 2-0, and while they ended up losing the first tiebreaker match, they had their chances.
It's hard to say what exactly went wrong for Brame in the game, but realistically, it all came down to V-Gaming taking better use of their early lead and using it to snowball to victory. Although V-Gaming deserved to win on the day, they were also clearly the weaker team in the remaining two bouts, leading me to believe that their W was more a fluke rather than anything else.
At the same time, it's hard to deny that V-Gaming are gaining some serious momentum and have proven before that they can compete with Brame, so it doesn't make much sense for the bookies to price V-Gaming as 2.00 underdogs.
V-Gaming's win condition is fairly simple. They need to avoid giving up too much in the early game as they did in their last meeting with Brame, and as long as they can achieve that, they should be able to come out ahead.
Brame should be aware of that plan, so I expect them to prepare for it with a more late-game scaling composition, which can only mean one thing; we're in for a longer game that can easily drag out to over 30 minutes.
PickleBet offers 2.00 on over 36 minutes which seems like the right call. There is a chance that Brame outmuscle V-Gaming and close it out in 25 minutes, but I have seen enough from V-Gaming to believe they can put up a fight.
Brame vs Nemiga Gaming
Dota 2 Champions League Season 6
Neimga had some bright moments during the group stage, but they were far from convincing in the tiebreakers, and the possibility of them missing Ivan "VANSKOR" Skorokhod makes it hard to trust them with our money.
However, based on what we have seen in the first two meetings between Nemiga and Brame, I would prefer Nemiga. The first match ended in favour of Brame, who produced an incredible comeback, clawing their way to a victory despite trailing 16.6k at 36 minutes.
The second clash was much more straightforward, and while the game lasted for over 37 minutes, Nemiga were clearly the better team, ending the match with 35-17 in kills and +26k net worth.
But despite Nemiga's strong performances against Brame on Friday, they're still priced as underdogs, which is surprising. Missing VANSKOR isn't optimal, but Nemiga did well against Brame without their core player last week, so there is no reason to believe they can't do well on Monday. Take Nemiga to win at 2.05.
Nemiga Gaming to win
$2.05
