NRL Super Saturday marches on, with an intriguing battle between two teams that are similarly rated by the market, with the Dragons hosting the Sea Eagles at Jubilee Stadium. With Manly chasing the final spot in the top 8, they will be desperate for a win here to keep their hopes alive, whilst the Dragons’ season has quickly spiralled out of control. A tight one expected at Kogarah.
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Dragons vs Sea Eagles Prediction & Tips: 2025 NRL Round 26
Dragons Stumbling Towards Bali
The Dragons are sporting a two-game losing streak and have lost seven of their past 10 games of football. Whilst their finals hopes were never that high, they have since evaporated and they are now playing for pride. With this set to be their last game of the season at Kogarah, can they get up for this clash with a Manly side with plenty to play for?
Last week, the Dragons headed to Accor Stadium to take on a severely depleted Rabbitohs team, in a game that was expected to be tight as evidence by the short 1.5-point start for the home side. It was anything but close, as the Rabbitohs shut the Dragons out of the game entirely, winning 40-0 at a canter in one of the more disappointing performances of the year by any side. They were dominated across the paddock, with the Rabbitohs running for a massive 2205 metres, breaking the line six times and busting 25 tackles, in the seven tries to zero romp.
Looking for positives for the Dragons, and both Clint Gutherson and Christian Tuipulotu ran for over 200 metres, whilst Jacob Liddle made 51 tackles and broke the line once off the bench. There wasn’t a whole lot else to write home about, and the Dragons are now suffering from a host of injuries, with their lack of depth showing up late in the season.
Sea Eagles Consistently Inconsistent
The Sea Eagles continue to be one of the toughest teams to handicap in the NRL, as they snapped a four-game losing streak in which they averaged just 8 points a game last week, by piling on 58 points against the Dolphins. In one of the more unbelievable margin stats this season, the Sea Eagles have the most 13+ wins of any team in the competition, and in fact they have only one win all season by a margin of 1-12. If they are clicking, they are hard to stop, but it appears as though if the attack isn’t on, this team cannot find a way to win.
Last week was instant attack from both teams, as the Sea Eagles and Dolphins exchanged converted tries over the opening 20 minutes to have the score all square at 12-apiece. It was the half hour period either side of halfway that had the Sea Eagles take control, as they ran in five unanswered tries to lead 40-12 at the hour mark, with the Dolphins never sniffing victory after this time, with the Sea Eagles eventually winning 58-30. The Sea Eagles managed to run for over 2000 metres, breaking the line 10 times and popping 21 offloads, where their attack was allowed to do whatever it wanted against the Dolphins defence.
There were several stars for the Sea Eagles, with Tom Trbojevic looking back to his best with 200 running metres, two tries, two-line breaks, three try assists, four-line break assists and five offloads, whilst Lehi Hopoate scored two tries, broke the line four times, and set up another two tries. Daly Cherry-Evans was also fantastic, running for 170 metres, setting up three tries and kicking 9 from 10 off the tee. A wonderful attacking display from a team that had been struggling for weeks.
Dragons vs Sea Eagles Recent History
This has been a nice little back and forth rivalry for the last few years, with both teams winning three of the past six matchups, and neither team managing two in a row. The Sea Eagles haven’t managed a victory at this ground since the 2014 season.
The last meeting between the two teams came back in round 7 this season, where the Sea Eagles welcomed the Dragons to 4 Pines Park as 4.5-point home favourites on Thursday night. With no Tom Trbojevic, the Sea Eagles struggled in attack as they weren’t able to score a try until the 49th minute. They played well for a brief period, scoring 14 points in just 9 minutes, but it wasn’t enough as the Dragons snuck home on the road, winning 20-18.
Lehi Hopoate was huge for the Sea Eagles, running for 278 metres, breaking the line once, setting up a try and busting 7 tackles, whilst Tyrell Sloan was everywhere for the Dragons, scoring two tries and running for 210 metres.
Dragons to Reward Their Loyal Kogarah Fans
The Dragons were listed as massive 5.5-point home favourites on the look ahead, which initially looked a bit rich, despite the poor form of the Sea Eagles. After Manly dominated the Dolphins last week, the market quickly changed, with the game re-opening a pick em’. The money line is still a pick em’, with a heavily juiced Sea Eagles +1.5 available. I believe pick em’ is about right, with my number suggesting the Sea Eagles should be tiny favourites, however I haven’t been able to get a read on the Manly side all year, and whenever I think they’ll win, they inevitably lose. There’s no real numbers play here but given it’s the Dragons last home game at Kogarah this season, and they generally play better there, I’ll lean towards the Dragons to get the win here.
Looking towards the total, and it opened 48.5 and hasn’t moved. My fair total is 44.5, and as such I see decent value to the under purely on numbers, however at this time of the season and with the Sea Eagles attack capable of massive points, I can’t touch the total. Manly have been a heavy unders team this season, hitting unders at a 68% clip, however the Dragons have played more overs than unders (12/22). I’ll steer clear.
So, a tough game to handicap, with motivation tough to predict here. If the Roosters get by the Storm on Friday night, the Sea Eagles will have little to play for, however a loss for the Roosters will see the Sea Eagles much closer to the finals. Still, I’ll take on the Sea Eagles here, and back the Dragons to get the win at home. Small stakes, given the unpredictability of both teams, but we will take the home side here.
Dragons -1.5
$1.90 (1.5 Units)
Dragons vs Sea Eagles Player Prop Bet
Koula to Continue Hot Form
There hasn’t been too much said about Koula’s try scoring form this season, however with 16 tries in 21 games, Koula has the fourth most tries of anyone in the NRL this season. With Tom Trbojevic back pulling the strings on the left, expect another Koula four pointer here.
Tolutau Koula Anytime Try Scorer
$2.02 (1 unit)
Same Game Multi: Dragons vs Sea Eagles
Leg 1: Dragons -1.5 – See best bet
Leg 2: T Koula (1+ try) – See above player prop bet.
Leg 3: M Feagai (1+ try) – Has looked good in the left centres in attack for the Dragons since coming in, scoring four tries in the last four games. Takes away from Christian Tuipulotu’s chances on the left wing, but scores plenty himself.
SGM Odds: $8.00 at Dabble
Dragons vs Sea Eagles Betting Odds & Match Info
Date: Saturday 30th August
Location: Jubilee Stadium, Kogarah
Time: 5:30pm AEST
Odds: Dragons ($1.78) vs Sea Eagles ($2.05)
Line: Dragons -1.5
Points: 48.5
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