Welcome to our preview and horse racing betting tips for racing at Caulfield on Saturday, June 30th.
We have a nine-race card on our hands with the rail out 7m, so leaders may be advantaged. The track is currently a Good 4 and should remain that way with only a drop of rain predicted.
We’ve got betting tips and comments for every race below, and you can also tune into Episode 40 of the Before You Bet Podcast too!
Best Bet: Race 5 #11 Rillito
Best Value: Race 9 #7 Princeton Spirit
Always trappy races to get involved in these two-year-old races, with a few horses on debut. I backed the favourite (8) Trilli on debut at Sale where she finished third, but missed her last start at Sandown when she won in good style and good time. She was touted by trainer Jason Warren as his best ever two-year-old and she showed what she’s capable of last start. The horse she beat had trialled nicely and they smoked the horse that ran 3rd, so that indicates the form might be pretty good. I think she’ll drift from her current $2.90 quote but she does appear to get the run of the race from barrier 4. The horse I’m terrified of is (7) Tony Nicconi who is on debut for the Lindsay Park stable – probably one of the country’s best stables in terms of two-year-old results. He’s jumped out nicely at Flemington and if he jumps forward I’d expect them to go forward from barrier 10. (4) Eugene’s Forest was sound on debut on Heavy ground. He trialled well before that and can measure up here so could be the value at $8. Not a race I’ll be betting big into but Trilli goes on top.
TIP: (8) Trilli
Interesting race with the two imports taking up a large percentage of the market and seemingly bringing quite strong formlines to the race. (3) Al Galayel won his first start in Australia over 1600m at Sandown, defeating Rat With Goldtooth by 0.5L with a further 4.5L back to the 3rd horse. That tells me those two horses are well and truly capable of going on with it. He carried 60kg on that occasion and he’s now won his past three starts after winning two from two last prep in the UK. All three have been over this distance, too. The concern for me today is Mark Zahra being replaced by 3kg apprentice Liam Riordan. That’s as negative a jockey change and I therefore can’t get the horse as short as his current $2.40 quote. (8) Mantastic is the current second favourite at $3.40 after running 2nd, beaten 0.5L on his Australian debut at Flemington. The form out of that race is particularly strong – the winner Barthelona came out and bolted in last weekend, while the horse Mantastic dead-heated with, Miles Of Krishan, also won last weekend. The step up from 1400m to the mile will suit, the only concern is barrier 15 at Caulfield with the rail out. He’ll have to be good to round them up from the back. (5) Another Bullseye was disappointing last start but it was her first run in a month so she might be much better off for that. Her form from early in the preparation would see her competitive in this so the $17 could be value. Interestingly, Oliver jumps off her to ride Dusty Jack, who is completely out of form but gets to the mile third up from a spell here. Worth keeping safe at $61. (2) I Boogi and (9) Lord Tennyson others to consider.
TIP: (8) Mantastic / (5) Another Bullseye EW
Tricky race in that (1) Masculino is the best horse in the race but has to carry 4kg more than his opposition. He comes off a good win at this distance at Flemington last start, which followed a good run in defeat behind Gaulois at Moonee Valley. He’s drawn tricky again here but if he can get a similar sort of run that he did last start, he’ll be launching late. He’s won four of his nine starts and the weight may not stop him from winning again today. There’s a few horses down in the weights that can be competitive though. (12) Seas No Limit recorded a strong victory to break his maiden over a mile at Pakenham last start. I’m typically careful with synthetic form measuring up in metropolitan Saturday grade but he’s still open to improvement with the step up to 2000m at his third start, especially with the good barrier to help. (6) Nothin’ Leica High didn’t get a great deal of luck at a cucial stage last start behind Masculino. Draws wide but comes down in weight and should have finished closer than he did. (5) Borella gets the run of the race from barrier 4 and comes off a strong win over 1700m at Sale, while (14) Big Bad Baz worked home well behind Masculino last start.
TIP: (1) Masculino / (12) Seas No Limit EW
Big field and a wide-oen race. The favourite (1) Summer Sham is obviously the class horse in the field having won three of her first four runs in her debut preparation, including a Group 2 success over 1400m here at Caulfield. She’s drawn ideally but she’s still first up over 1200m with top weight against a field of race-fit horses, so she’s likely to be vulnerable. (5) Josephine Sea has always had talent but has mixed her form. She appears to have returned in good order this preparation with a 2nd first up followed by a good win at Mornington last start, which was afer another seven weeks off. Drawn a touch awkward and this is much harder than what she faced last time out, but her best would see her very competitive here. I was impressed by the run of (4) Miss Norway last start where she did well to run 3rd having been posted wide throughout the race. The form from that race could prove pretty strong and although she’s drawn barrier 16 here, she looks a value chance at $17. (2) Derasa faces a tough task fom the draw, (9) Stylish Missile has the ability but may need one more run and barrier 1 isn’t ideal. Williams booked on (14) Soul Star first up catches the eye.
TIP: (5) Josephine Sea / (4) Miss Norway EW
Very competitive race but the standout looks to be the Gdolphin filly (7) Rillito who produced a hugely eye-catching run first up at Moonee Valley when she motored home from the back of the field to be beaten a nose by Showpero. The form from that race has already been franked with Belwazi winning on Wednesday. She draws wide again here but the extra distance will suit and she’s won two of her three previous second up runs. Excited to see (3) Just Hifalutin back at the track after five months off. She’s finished top two in eight of her 11 races and the 1200m is her pet distance. Drawn well in 5 and looks a chance at $9. (6) Mamzelle Tess drops back from Group 3 company and the blinkers go on first time. (11) Run Gypsy Run and (12) Bellaria come through the same race at Echuca and have small claims, while (5) Typhoon Jolie drops back in trip to 1200m and isn’t hopeless. Happy to take o (10) Jennifer Lynn having her first start for a new trainer.
TIP: (7) Rillito / (3) Just Hifalutin EW
Tough race. (11) Sixties Groove has been very heavily backed in his first two Australian starts but hasn’t fired on either occasion. Third up from a year off, up to 1800m and back on a firm track are all positives, as well as the good barrier draw in 4. Today could be his day and he’s already had some support in early markets. $5.50 currently and judging by his first two starts, he could well start much shorter. (4) Trap For Fools was luckless in his Melbourne debut, caught wide all the way. Better drawn today, he’ll find himself up on speed and if he leads, he could be hard to get past with the rail in the 7m position. Prepared to have something on at $8.50 here – he will continue to get better with racing and as the distance rises. (1) Pacodali was good first up at Swan Hill and has a good second up record. The 1.5kg claim comes in handy and he’s well and truly capable of winning this at $10. (6) My Nordic Hero won well at the Valley last start but drops back in trip to 1800m here. That shouldn’t worry him too much but dropping back in distance is always a concern of mine with stayers. Drawn well to get every chance though. (12) Jaminzah is better suited at Flemington but his stablemate (14) Hursley is better suited back in distance at Caulfield today.
TIP: (11) Sixties Groove / (4) Trap For Fools EW
I’m a big fan of (7) Street Sheikh and Patrick Payne as a trainer but the jockey booking here concerns me greatly. He gets in with just 51kg and has the talent to win this, but Nathan Punch has ridden two winners from his past 62 rides, hs never ridden at Caulfield before and has barrier 8 to deal with which is slightly awkward. I have to take him on for that reason. (3) Usain Bowler goes on top after a good win at the Valley last start. Oliver takes the ride today, replacing Mick Dee, and there’s no reason he can’t win again. (10) Smooth Landing motored home last start but needs a good ride from the awkward barrier. (11) Captain Harry is knocking on the door but doesn’t win out of turn. (12) Greyworm backed up three winning trials with a debut win at Mornington. If he leads here he’ll be tough to run down. Don’t be surprised if (1) Snitzepeg goes forward today and if there’s a tactics change, he’ll be understandably met with support.
TIP: (3) Usain Bowler / Smooth Landing EW
There’s been a huge betting move early for (10) So Poysed here. It’s easy to see why and this is probably one of the biggest betting stables in Victoria. The horse was good first up when 4th over 1200m and his second up record stands at three wins from four starts. Down in weight, drawn perfectly and looks well placed to win. Currently $5. (3) Malaise was good first up without a lot of luck at the Valley. Second up here and should enjoy a good run from barrier 1. Has to carry the big weight and might need luck at some point but he’ll be right there in the finish. (9) Rib Eye has blinkers on first time and drops back to 1400m. Likely to need a bit of luck from barrier 2 but he’s flying and should be competitive. (8) Mr Individual tends to pop up in these sorts of races, while (13) My Paisann must be kept safe with Oliver going on board.
TIP: (10) So Poysed
Very competitive way to end the card. (7) Princeton Spirit is a winning machine and with $8.50 on offer today I’m happy to back him in again. He’s won five of his seven starts, was luckless in one of his losses and was first up in the other. This is another step up for him but with a winning record like that you have to take the odds available here. (5) Wise Hero has been a touch disappointing this preparation in my opinion. Lane off, Brown on today is a slight negative, as well as the awkward barrier, but he doesn’t have many excuses at his third run back from a spell. (12) Chatuchak saluted in midweek grade last time out and looks to get the run of the race from barrier 3 here but she steps up from fillies and mares grade to take on the boys here. (14) Kennedy has his first start as a gelding today and comes down from the Sydney stable. He’s always shown ability and certainly gets in well with 54kg from barrier 6 but he’s short enough in the market at $3.70 for mine. (11) Lord Barrington ran 2nd to Princeton Spirit last start yet is a $26 chance here which looks over the odds, and (4) Murt The Flirt is a blowout chance at $31. Tough race to end with but backing Princeton Spirit, Chatuchak and Lord Barrington.
TIP: (7) Princeton Spirit / (12) Chatuchak EW
1, 4, 6, 11
1, 2, 3, 8, 10, 12
3, 8, 9, 10, 12, 13
4, 5, 7, 11, 12, 14
$100 = 11.57%
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