The Australian Open women’s final delivers exactly what everyone wanted: the two most dominant hard-court players in the draw, Aryna Sabalenka and Elena Rybakina, meeting again on the biggest stage. Neither has dropped a set all fortnight, and with their 2023 Melbourne classic still fresh in the memory, this rematch has heavyweight written all over it.
Australian Open: Women's Final Betting Tips
Saturday, January 31st, 7.30pm AEDT
H2H Odds: Sabalenka ($1.58) vs Rybakina ($2.35)
Total Games Line: 22.5
This final is a celebration of power tennis. Both Sabalenka and Rybakina have bulldozed their way through the draw, thriving on Melbourne’s fast hard courts and refusing to give opponents any breathing room. Sabalenka’s path has been steadier, while Rybakina’s run arguably carries more weight after knocking off No.2 Iga Swiatek and No.6 Jessica Pegula back-to-back without dropping a set.
Sabalenka arrives with the aura of inevitability. She’s into a seventh consecutive hard-court Grand Slam final, a staggering level of consistency, and while finals haven’t always showcased her very best tennis, her resilience has. She’s won four of her seven Slam finals already, including a gritty three-setter over Rybakina in the 2023 Australian Open final that launched her hard-court Grand Slam dominance.
Rybakina, though, looks primed to flip the script. Her serve has been the single most destructive weapon in the tournament, firing double-digit aces in two of her last three matches. Even when her first-serve percentage dipped below 55% against elite opposition, she still found a way through. When she faced Sabalenka indoors at the WTA Finals, she landed two-thirds of her first serves, blasted 13 aces and was never broken, a blueprint she’ll need to follow again.
Expect short points, ruthless first strikes, and very few extended rallies. Sabalenka’s extra variety and defensive grit may matter late in sets, but Rybakina’s serving ceiling is the X-factor that can tilt this final quickly.
Prediction
This feels razor-thin. Sabalenka is the more complete hard-court player and has proven she can survive big-match pressure here before, but Rybakina’s serve gives her a real path to control this final if her first-serve percentage climbs above 60%. Best bet: Over games / match to go three sets
Total Sets Over 2.5
$2.35 (1.5 Units)
