Australia vs India 2nd Test Preview
When: December 17th – 21st
Where: Gabba, Brisbane
WOW! What an epic finish to the 1st Test in Adelaide. It was a match where Australia performed well throughout but just couldn’t shake the defiance of the Indians until the final two hours of play. A dramatic final session that saw Australia claim an incredible eight wickets to snatch one of the most famous victories of all time.
It was such an amazing day that all three results were a distinct possibility in the final session. Test cricket at its finest! However we’re glad that Australia got the win. They deserved to win. Let’s face it, Nathan Lyon took as many wickets in the match as the entire Indian team combined. Two declarations by Australia were made at the right time, but if bad weather hadn’t affected Day 2, you’d have to think Michael Clarke would’ve a crack at the Indian openers late in the day in a tough little session. As it was he was forced to declare overnight both times, so the Indians could come out fresh in both innings.
It says a lot that the Aussies could overcome such fierce opposition to win on a bit of a road. If India can’t win in Adelaide, they’re going to hate it at the Gabba come Wednesday. There has been some ordinary weather around in Brisbane recently, so it’s expected that the pitch will be green, bouncy and fast, and completely favouring the Australian quicks. Not exactly sub-continental conditions.
The Indian batting was solid with Virat Kohli in particular leading by example with two hundreds. However with the bowling, they probably should’ve picked Ravi Ashwin ahead of leg-spinning debutant Karn Sharma. Ashwin has proven to give the Aussies trouble, and seeing how well Nathan Lyon bowled, I think Ashwin would’ve been a major handful. I can see him coming into the team in Brisbane, but the horse has bolted and the Gabba is not going to suit. The Indians will also welcome back their skipper in MS Dhoni to take the gloves and add some more batting depth which looked frail outside the top six.
For the Aussies, Michael Clarke has played his last match of the series, and maybe for his career. He was obviously wanting to do everything and anything to play the Adelaide Test for his mate Hughesy. That hundred will mean more to him than any other, and he could very easily leave the game now at the peak of his powers. Shaun Marsh will come in to replace him and will bat at five, with new skipper Steve Smith jumping up to four. Marsh should be inspired what Smith has achieved through similar opportunities, and Marsh will hopefully finally live up to potential and perform consistently at Test level. Chris Rogers is the other worry with the bat, and he’s probably only got this match to find some runs, otherwise Ed Cowan is knocking down the door and deserves to be recalled with four Shield hundreds already this season.
In the bowling department, Peter Siddle struggled and only bowled nine overs in the second dig when the game was on the line. He’s been omitted from the Gabba team with Josh Hazelwood set to make his debut. Hazelwood’s height and bounce will be a handful at the Gabba, as will the pace of Mitchell Starc who comes in for Ryan Harris who is struggling to back up with a slight quad strain.
Weather: There may be some rain interruptions on Day 2 and Day 3, but the Aussies won’t need a full five days to win this one, so it shouldn’t affect the result.
Verdict: How can the Indians lift themselves off the canvas here after such a demoralizing loss in Adelaide? I can’t see it happening. The conditions will suit Australia perfectly, with the quicks fresh and firing for this match which should be too much for India to overcome, despite their batting talent.
Betting
Rolling Profit/Loss: +6.48 units
We ended up +6.48 units on the 1st Test. Perhaps we were a little fortunate that the Aussies got up after they looked gone at tea on the final day, but we were also a little unlucky with the David Warner most runs bet after scoring 145 in the first Innings. Fortunately we took advantage of a good promotion from Luxbet to get our stake back there as a bonus bet.
The Australians are firm favourites for the second Test, but the price is short, opening at around the $1.55 mark and drifting slightly to now be $1.65 at Betfair. It’s really hard to see them losing but there’s not a whole lot of value in that price, eventhough Australia win or draw 85% of the time in Brisbane. In fact there’s not a whole lot of value around at all for this Test which is why we’re going to try and use a few of the online promotions around for this match.
We’re keen on Mitchell Johnson to play a big part in this match. The conditions will suit and he showed moments of brilliance on an unconducive wicket in Adelaide. He’ll be better for the run and will be peaking here in Brisbane. With two relative rookies in support, and Lyon’s effectiveness to be minimized, Johnson should lead this attack with great vigour. He looks short in the most 1st Innings wickets market at $2.75, but is far more attractive at $8.50 for the Man of the Match at Sportsbet, or take a slightly lower price and combine with the Man of the Match promo at BetEasy (see below).
We also will stick with David Warner for most Australian 1st innings runs. His price is around $3.25 at most sports books, but the enhanced $6.50 price combining with an Australian win looks like decent value.
Best Bets
Mitchell Johnson to win Man of the Match @$8.50 at Sportsbet (1 unit)
David Warner to score most team runs 1st Innings & Australia Win @$6.50 at Sportingbet (1 unit using promo below)
Other Bets
Australia to win 2nd Test @$1.65 at Betfair (3 units)
Highest Opening Partnership 1st Innings – Australia @$1.71 at BetEasy (2 units)
Team with most Run Outs – Draw @$2.15 at Luxbet (1 unit)
Futures Bets
Our futures bets are in good shape after Australia went 1-0 up and as long as weather doesn’t intervene, confidence is high of a nice return on this series.
Australia win series 4-0 @$5.50 at Centrebet (4 units)
Australia win series 3-0 @$5.00 at Sportsbet (4 units)
We’re also on the money with the leading run scorers so far. Virat Kohli had a magnificent Test scoring 256 runs, but he won’t have it so easy on the bouncier wickets to come. David Warner continues his incredible form with 247 runs, while Steve Smith scored 214 runs without even being dismissed. The others are well behind, so we’re in good shape after the 1st Test.
David Warner Most Series Runs Overall @$5.50 at Centrebet (2 units)
Steve Smith Most Series Runs Overall @$10 at Centrebet (1 unit)
