The bye rounds are finally behind us, which means we're back to a full Saturday of AFL action for Round 17.
The day kicks off with Hawthorn taking on Melbourne in what shapes as one of the better match-ups of the round. Unfortunately, the AFL, in its infinite wisdom, has scheduled the game in Launceston, where around 8,000 fans will be in attendance instead of the 80,000-plus that would likely pack out the MCG.
As if that wasn't frustrating enough, the scheduling only gets worse, with the GWS Giants and Fremantle starting just 20 minutes later. Thankfully, things settle down in the twilight slot as Gold Coast hosts Collingwood before Richmond and Carlton close out the night under the lights at the MCG.
Four games, plenty of fantasy-friendly match-ups and no shortage of ways to build winning line-ups. Let's dive in!
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AFL Daily Fantasy Lineup Tips: Round 17 Saturday
AFL Fantasy Round 17 Saturday: Where to Attack?
Hawthorn has been one of the toughest teams to score against in fantasy this season, so there's not a lot to like from the Melbourne side. The Dees, however, remain a team I actively target despite their improved on-field performances. They're still conceding plenty of fantasy points, particularly to opposition forwards and defenders. The designated kicker role has consistently scored well against Melbourne, making Hawthorn backs and forwards two of the strongest positional targets on the slate.
It's no surprise that Fremantle sits as the toughest fantasy match-up in the competition. They're ranked inside the top three most restrictive teams across almost every position, making Giants players difficult to justify. GWS has also tightened up considerably in recent weeks, with ruck being their only genuine area of vulnerability.
Gold Coast leaked heavily to opposition midfielders earlier in the season, but that's no longer the case. Over the past 10 matches they've improved back to around league average through the midfield and have become one of the stingiest teams against opposition defenders, ranking inside the top three.
Collingwood still has a couple of exploitable weaknesses. Opposition rucks continue to score well against the Magpies, who remain more than 14 fantasy points above league average in the position over the last 10 games. They also concede above-average scores to opposition defenders, particularly the designated kicker role.
Carlton has been generous to opposition rucks all season, although it's difficult to see Toby Nankervis fully capitalising on the match-up given his recent form. Outside of that, the Blues are relatively restrictive across the ground.
Richmond, on the other hand, shapes as one of the premier teams to target on this slate. The Tigers rank among the three most generous teams in the league against key forwards, inside midfielders and general defenders, creating multiple avenues to stack Carlton players in what projects as one of the best fantasy environments on the slate.
Game Script: Hawks forwards/defenders, Dockers/Suns rucks, Suns defenders, Blues stacks
AFL Fantasy Round 17 Saturday: Our Value Fantasy Picks
Dylan Patterson ($6,000) comes in for his debut for the Suns and looks a promising type. He’s a Suns Academy player who was drafted at #5 in last year’s draft, and brings some explosive run and dash out of the backline that could replicate the role of the injured Daniel Rioli. Patterson had 12 tackles to go with 18 disposals and a goal for a 102 fantasy score in the VFL last week, and although he’s yet to produce those numbers on a regular basis, he gets a good matchup for defenders here against the Pies, so could be a handy value pick.
Jack Ough ($6,000) is another debutant this week as he comes into the Giants lineup. Ough is a big bodied midfielder who was taken with pick #36 in the 2024 draft but had shoulder surgery that ended his season abruptly. He's been dominant in the VFL this year averaging 31.5 disposals and 5 tackles with plenty of big tons in his fantasy scoring. It's a great profile if he gets the role, but the concern is a tough match up against Freo.
Ned Moyle ($9,120) gets the gun match up against Collingwood's Darcy Cameron who has been leaking big points all season. Moyle is back into solo ruck duties after Jarrod Witts was dropped so Moyle comes right into calculations. His season average of 67.5 is unspectacular, but a season high a few weeks ago of 86 in a favourable match up against Geelong is what we're aiming for here. Always has a good floor of hitouts, just needs to get involved more around the ground to hit value.
AFL Fantasy Round 17 Saturday: Our Mid-Priced Fantasy Picks
Ben Ainsworth ($12,060) has enjoyed a tweak to his role under caretaker coach Josh Fraser where is playing far more midfield time than before. Since Round 7 he's been making a couple of CBA appearances, but last week's 34% was a significant uptick. This was reflected in his heat map which saw him roam all over the ground on his way to a career-best 28 disposals and a score of 112 fantasy points. It was a juicy matchup last week against the Eagles, but it's just as good here against the Tigers, so no reason why Ainsworth continue to play well and land another ton.
James Sicily ($13,570) is in play this week in a favourable match up against Melbourne who give up big points to opposition defenders, particularly to the designated kicker. The Hawks have huge outs in the defensive half with Jarman Impey, Jack Scrimshaw, Josh Weddle, Karl Amon and Josh Battle all out through injury. That means there's a lot of extra points to share around in the Hawks backline. Look to see an uptick for some of the budget options, but you'd think Sicily will want to step in and control a lot of the ball distribution, including a good share of kick ins - Amon and Battle had 6 kick ins last week and 7 the week prior between them. Sicily has the ability to go large and produced 123 (vs St Kilda) and 100 (vs Bulldogs) in favourable match ups in the last month. Blake Hardwick ($11,500) could also be a nice pivot as it seems likely he'll be playing back.
AFL Fantasy Round 17 Saturday: Our Premium Fantasy Picks
Noah Anderson ($16,600) has been in sublime form recently and warrants consideration for your team. His last three scores of 120, 143 and 133 have been superb, and even before that has scores of 83, 115, 118 and 115 which shows some very consistent high scoring. The Pies are unlikely to tag, and Anderson has the ability to go large against anyone, so if you have the salary for it, then try to squeeze him into your lineup!
Nick Daicos ($18,080) is in Brownlow winning form and it seems that nothing can stop him this season. His last two weeks have produced scores of 143 and 148 - huge fantasy numbers, and his season average of 123.3 confirms his consistency against all opposition. Normally I wouldn't look at rostering someone at $18k, but there's a number of potentially useful value picks on this slate, so a bit of a "stars and scrubs" approach might not be a bad way to go.
AFL Fantasy Round 17 Saturday: Our Fades
Luke Jackson ($16,500) has had an incredible All-Australian year but I’m going to be fading him today. He gets a great match up so there’s no issues there, but it’s the job share with Sean Darcy which turns me off. Darcy cannot play any other position but ruck, so it means that Jackson has to play more forward than I think he would like. With a buffer at the top of the ladder, the Dockers will be all about preserving Jackson and managing his workloads for the rest of the season. They have no interest in burning him out or seeing him injured. Also if you look at his recent numbers, they aren’t that flattering. If you ignore the monster score against Geelong (who leak massive points to rucks), his last six weeks around that are 70, 93, 72, 95 and 89 which is good, but not enough to hit value for us at the hefty price tag.
Here's our Suggested Draftstars Lineup for AFL Saturday
Weather Report for Saturday 4th July
Launceston - Mostly cloudy, 13 degrees
Sydney - Sunny, 18 degrees
Gold Coast - Sunny, 22 degrees
Melbourne - Light rain, 13 degrees
No real issues with the weather across the country on Saturday. Let’s play!
AFL Betting Markets Saturday
Odds provided with thanks to NextBet!
Hawthorn ($1.43) vs Melbourne ($2.83)
Line: Hawthorn -14.5
Points: 168.5
GWS Giants ($3.35) vs Fremantle ($1.33)
Line: Fremantle -20.5
Points: 177.5
Gold Coast ($1.61) vs Collingwood ($2.32)
Line: Gold Coast -8.5
Points: 173.5
Richmond ($6.05) vs Carlton ($1.13)
Line: Carlton -35.5
Points: 168.5
Also, be sure to check out our full AFL Previews and Betting Tips for each match. Our experts break down each individual game and highlight some key bets that you can follow!
