Round 15 continues on Saturday afternoon on a very competitive day of AFL football. First up, we head to Adelaide for a battle between two teams in form as the Crows take on the Demons. The Crows are favourites but the Dees will fancy their chances for an upset. Next up, the Giants are at home as they welcome the Blues to town in a game where both teams need a victory to stay in touch with the top 10. Finally, we head to the MCG where the Pies are favourites against the Power. Looks like a great day of action!
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AFL Daily Fantasy Lineup Tips: Round 15 Saturday
AFL Fantasy Round 15 Saturday: Where to Attack?
The Dees are a great fantasy target to attack on this slate as they give up above average points all over the ground. In particular, they give up huge points to opposition defenders - both general defenders and outside runners - as well as general forwards. Adelaide players will be popular today!
By contrast, the Crows don’t give away much at all. Opposition key forwards and general forwards have the toughest time in the league to amass fantasy points so be careful with rostering Melbourne players.
The Giants and Blues will be an interesting battle in the ruck as both teams give up big points to the opposition ruck. Will Kieran Briggs or Marc Pittonet be able to take advantage of this match up?
The Giants are pretty solid all over the ground, but they are generous in giving up points to the opposition designated kicker.
Interestingly, the Blues are opposites in that area of the ground as they refuse to give up cheap points to the opposition designated kickers and are in the top three stingiest in the league in that position. However they do give up above average points to general defenders and wingers.
The Pies have a couple of areas where they have been giving up big fantasy points. Their ruck situation has been problematic all year where they are easily the loosest in that position over the last ten games. They also are the league’s worst in conceding points to the opposition designated kicker.
The Power don’t give up much, and they are particularly stingy to the opposition wings and outside defenders, so avoid rostering the Pies in those areas.
Game scripts: Adelaide stacks, Giants/Blues rucks, Blues designated kicker, Power ruck/designated kicker
AFL Fantasy Round 15 Saturday: Our Value Fantasy Picks
Sam Swadling ($6,000) comes into the Collingwood side to make his debut and is a potential option for some salary relief. Swadling will slot into the backline vacancy left by the injured Brayden Maynard, and his VFL form warrants consideration. Had 40 disposals and a 138 fantasy score a few weeks ago and has been regularly putting out scores in the 80s and 90s.
Josh Lai ($6,910) could be sneaky pick on a slate which doesn't have a lot of great value. Lai comes into the side and will slot into a Power backline that is missing its key distributor in Kane Farrell. It's also the best match up in the league for designated kickers against the Pies, so if Lai can step into that role, then he should hit value. Lai brings good skills if he can find some of the ball. His season average is a modest 47.8 but he has strung together some consistent scores in the 60s. That's not terrible at this price point, but he's yet to show be can break past that total.
AFL Fantasy Round 15 Saturday: Our Mid-Priced Fantasy Picks
Logan Evans ($11,830) looks best placed to capitalise on a super-favourable match up against the Pies who give up the most points in the league to the designated kicker role. Originally, I preferred Kane Farrell at a similar price, but he's now out with injury, so that brings Evans and potentially Darcy Byrne-Jones ($12,030) into play. Evans should see a boost on his 71.7 season average, but he's shown the ability to go big with two tons and a ceiling score of 111 which was also in a favourable match up against the Bulldogs. Finding the right Port defender(s) who get a boost might be the key to this slate.
Joe Richards ($12,060) is on our radar after a recent role change. In the last month, Richards has been increasingly used at centre bounce attendances for the Power. His CBAs have gone 0% -> 10% -> 24% -> 48% -> 67% for scores of 84, 95, 82 and 107 during that time as Port clearly prefer the run of Richards at the expense of Ollie Wines and Willem Drew. The role change has clearly helped Richards, and his price has yet to catch up. Grab him now before he’s $13k+ next week.
Jordan Sweet ($12,760) is in play this week as a ruck option. It might not be obvious at first considering the quality of Darcy Camerson ($14,230), but the Pies ruckman has given up big points the opposition in recent weeks:
123 to Max Gawn (2026 average: 109.8)
93 to Tim English (86.6)
106 to Bailey Williams (82.1)
161 to Brodie Grundy (104.2)
80 to Rhys Stanley (80)
84 to Ned Reeves (58.6)
92 to Marc Pittonet (69.6)
131 to Luke Jackson (102.4)
As you can see, all of these performances from opposition ruckmen are well above their season and historical averages. Even poor old Rhys Stanley in his one and only game of the season, performed above his career average of 69.9.
So the Collingwood ruck weakness is clearly evident. Not that Cameron has always scored poorly, but clearly he doesn’t mind his opponent doing his own thing. Jordan Sweet has a 79.3 average this season, but does have two tons this season and scores of 90 and 98 in the last fortnight. Last week was against Brodie Grundy where he collected a solid 35 hitouts, so he looks to be improving each week now that the #1 ruck role at Port is his without having to job-share. Hopefully a “sweet” return for us this week.
AFL Fantasy Round 15 Saturday: Our Premium Fantasy Picks
Rory Laird ($14,710) looks to be back to his best in recent weeks. It was only a few short years ago that Laird was the #1 fantasy player in the game, so we know he can go big, and he draws a fantastic match up for defenders here against the Dees. Laird had a 133 last week against the Dogs with 35 disposals and 12 marks, so with that sort of ceiling, he’s right in play. If you want to pivot, Wayne Milera ($14,460) is available with a similar profile at the same price point. They have a similar average but we’ve yet to see Milera have that same ceiling as Laird.
Jordan Dawson ($17,200) is the stand out premium on this slate. The only problem is finding decent value options so that you can fit him in under budget. Dawson was sublime last week with one of the great games against the Bulldogs - 32 disposals, 8 tackles, 3 goals and a whopping 156 fantasy points. That wasn’t even a once-off - his last six games have produced 116, 133, 106, 131, 131 and 156. Just superb fantasy scoring. The match up against the Dees is juicy, although he might get some close attention this week. Don’t think it will stop him from going large again.
Here's our Suggested Draftstars Lineup for AFL Saturday
Weather Report for Saturday 20th June
Adelaide - Mostly sunny, 14 degrees
Sydney - Sunny, 19 degrees
Melbourne - Partly sunny, 13 degrees
AFL Betting Markets Saturday
Odds provided with thanks to NextBet!
Adelaide ($1.37) vs Melbourne ($3.12)
Line: Adelaide -18.5
Points: 178.5
GWS Giants ($1.41) vs Carlton ($2.93)
Line: GWS Giants -16.5
Points: 188.5
Collingwood ($1.45) vs Port Adelaide ($2.76)
Line: Collingwood -13.5
Points: 163.5
Also, be sure to check out our full AFL Previews and Betting Tips for each match. Our experts break down each individual game and highlight some key bets that you can follow!
