As we make our way towards the American hardcourt swing, players look to make the most of the top level clay tournaments while they can. Ace is back with his best tennis betting tip for the match-up in WTA Palermo between Irina-Camelia Begu and Oceane Dodin.
WTA Palermo
Thursday 12:10am AEST
There appears to be a touch of recency bias in play here in the odds for the match first up in Palermo today between Irina Begu and Oceane Dodin.
Let's start by taking a look at Begu, the current world number 45. Begu has shown over a large body of work that she is more than proficient on the clay, including finding herself just a set away from the quarter finals at Roland Garros just a couple of months ago. She is experienced and quite tactically savvy, and will know exactly what she is coming up against today given these two faced off at the Australian Open at the start of the year. On that occasion, Dodin actually served for the match at *5-4 40/15 in the second set, before going on to lose serve, lose the set 5-7, and drop the decider. Begu is much improved on the clay, and in her general level in recent months, so should enjoy this match-up on the clay moreso than what we saw in January.
For mine, Dodin lacks the variety in her game to be a genuine threat in this type of match-up unless she serves out of her mind. She came into Palermo on a 4 match losing streak, and her only wins on clay since the start of May came in the tournament held the week before the French Open, and they don't hold quite as much weight for mine. Barring a serving masterclass, Begu should be winning and covering in this one.
Happy to back Begu at the -4.5 games for 1 unit at Topsport.
Begu -4.5 games (1 unit)
$1.83
