It’s ‘prelim time’ in the NRL this weekend and with just 4 teams remaining, the excitement from fans is higher than ever. There have been some thrilling games of rugby league recently and the on-field action is tipped to jump to another level this weekend. The weekend begins on Friday night in Brisbane as the Dolphins host the Roosters. Having met only recently, these two sides will know one another well. This promises to be an epic encounter and Before You Bet is here to look at the game with this comprehensive preview of what is ahead.
Dolphins vs Roosters Prediction & Tips: 2026 NRL Preliminary Final
Gritty, determined, and resilient
It was a tough set of circumstances to overcome for the Dolphins in Week 1 of the Finals as they travelled over to New Zealand to face the Warriors. Down 12-8 at HT, they rallied in the second half, scoring 3 tries in the final 20 minutes of the contest to prevail 26-16. Clinical in their execution, they overcame only 47% possession and an inferior completion rate (81%) to turn their momentum into points. They were also fierce in defence; despite missing 42 tackles, they allowed their opponents to make 8.5m per carry. Their 5 line breaks in attack caused chaos and they took their chances when presented. It was a classic example of a team playing well with confidence in one another and themselves.
Worrying signs ahead… for their opponents
On a short turnaround from a loss to the Panthers, the Roosters had plenty of excuses for a poor performance. They produced anything but that in their dominating 46-10 victory over the Sharks. Starting strongly, they appeared faster than their opponents and maintained this intensity throughout the contest, eventually scoring 8 tries in 80 minutes. With 51% possession, they completed at 79%, ran for 9m per carry, and made 9 line breaks. Their defence was also strong, missing just 20 tackles. It is amazing to think that they should only get stronger with their first-choice team taking the field for this contest. It’s exciting to see what they can produce.
Stats that matter
- These two sides have played twice this season already with the Dolphins successful on both occasions. They recorded a dominant 48-10 victory in Round 15 with both sides missing their Origin players. On the road in Round 26, they won 26-12 with the Roosters impacted by injury.
- The Dolphins have a strong home record, winning 60% of matches played here. The Roosters do not struggle, having a 50% strike rate.
- In the past 5 matches between these two sides, only twice has the margin of victory been below 10 points; two blowout victories takes the average margin of victory to 24 points. The average total is also high, sitting at 61.6 points.
- There isn’t much between these two sides throughout the season. Both concede an average of 20 points defensively. The Dolphins have a slight edge in attack, scoring 27ppg to the Roosters 26ppg.
The difference is minimal
This is about as close as Preliminary Finals get and don’t let the odds fool you, these two sides are evenly matched. The miraculous recovery of Sam Walker to be named in this contest provides a boost for the visitors; their attacking spark flows through his creativity and reduces the attention on other key players around him. Providing the forwards can generate a fast ruck speed, the Roosters will benefit greatly from his inclusion.
The week off also benefits the Dolphins; the Roosters are facing consecutive 6-day turnarounds heading into this game and fatigue will undoubtedly be a factor. Both teams play an up-tempo style which is fast and uncompromising if defenders are slow to react. The Dolphins points scoring ability against the Warriors was something to behold in performing to this standard and it will be difficult to counter. If there is one side that can generate a positive game plan to achieve this, it is the Roosters. They will be primed for this contest and while there is a slight lean towards the home team (only just…), the smarter investment is for this to be a close game.
Overlooking the fact that both teams have an average win and loss margin in 2026 beyond 13+ points, take this one to be decided by fewer than 2 converted tries, with the intensity of the Finals to have a large impact on this outcome.
Either team by 10 points or less
$1.87 (2 units)
Dolphins vs Roosters Same Game Multi
Leg 1 = Total points over 45.5 – see above for justification.
Leg 2 = Farnwoth to score – he has a great record against the Roosters, scoring 4 tries in his past 5 games against them. Furthermore, Farnworth is a man in form with tries in his past 4 NRL games.
Leg 3 = Toia to score – crossing last week for his team, Toia has gone to another level recently with tries in all 4 of his past NRL games. He also enjoys facing off against the Dolphins, recording 3 tries from as many games against them.
Dolphins vs Roosters Betting Odds & Match Info
Date: Friday 25th September
Location: Suncorp Stadium, Brisbane
Time: 7:50pm (AEST)
Odds: Dolphines vs Roosters
Line: -2.5
Points: 45.5
Where to Watch Dolphins vs Roosters
Watch the Dolphins vs Roosters match live and ad free on Kayo Sports.
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