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2022 NRL Round 5: Warriors vs Cowboys Preview & Betting Tips

April 7th 2022, 2:24pm, By: Ben Bridge

Warriors vs Cowboys Betting Tips

The early Friday night game sees a top 8 showdown, with the 5th placed North Queensland Cowboys travelling to Redcliffe, to face the 7th placed Warriors, winners of 2 straight.

The visitors fell back to earth last week, being totally outclassed by the Sydney Roosters on Saturday night at home, losing 28-4. The Warriors on the other hand, hosted their first match at their new temporary home of Redcliffe, easily accounting for the woeful Broncos 20-6. Both sides will be looking for consistency moving forward, as there appears a large chasm between each side’s best and worst football.

As always, stay tuned throughout the 2022 NRL season to get the best betting value when taking on the bookies, with our NRL Tips page previewing all the NRL matches in 2022. Last week our best bets went 5-3 for +7.95 units, so if you’re not following along, you are missing out!

New Zealand Warriors vs North Queensland Cowboys

Moreton Daily Stadium, Friday 8th April, 6:00pm (AEST)

Squads

New Zealand Warriors

1. Reece Walsh 2. Edward Kosi 3. Jesse Arthars 4. Adam Pompey 5. Marcelo Montoya 6. Chanel Harris-Tavita 7. Shaun Johnson 8. Bunty Afoa 9. Wayde Egan (c) 10. Matt Lodge 11. Euan Aitken 12. Bayley Sironen 13. Josh Curran. INTERCHANGE: 14. Kodi Nikorima 15. Eliesa Katoa 16. Aaron Pene 17. Jack Murchie. RESERVES: 18. Taniela Otukolo 20. Addin Fonua-Blake 21. Rocco Berry 22. Pride Petterson-Robati 23. Junior Ratuva 24. Viliami Vailea 25. Otukinekina Kepu

North Queensland Cowboys

1. Scott Drinkwater 2. Kyle Feldt 3. Valentine Holmes 4. Peta Hiku 5. Murray Taulagi 6. Tom Dearden 7. Chad Townsend 8. Jordan McLean 9. Reece Robson 10. Jamayne Taunoa-Brown 11. Tom Gilbert 12. Jeremiah Nanai 13. Jason Taumalolo. INTERCHANGE: 14. Jake Granville 15. Heilum Luki 16. Reuben Cotter 17. Griffin Neame. RESERVES: 18. Coen Hess 19. Brendan Elliot 20. Connelly Lemuelu 21. Emry Pere 22. Ben Condon 23. Ben Hampton 24. Daejarn Asi

Match Preview

The New Zealand Warriors are looking to make it 3 straight wins as they play host to the North Queensland Cowboys. Last week, the Warriors thoroughly outplayed the Broncos, who to be fair have been horrible since their win in week 1 over a rusty South Sydney side. Nevertheless, the Warriors should have gained some confidence from the past two weeks, which should put them in good stead this week against the Cowboys.

Confidence is something the Cowboys should have been brimming with heading into Round 4. As second on the ladder with the best defensive record in the competition, there were plenty that thought the Cowboys would offer stuff resistance to the Roosters, however, that is not how it worked out. The Roosters were slick in attack and stout in defence, running out 28-4 winners in a 6 tries to 2 display that will have the Cowboys second guessing their chances this season.

Looking at statistics, the Cowboys have the edge in most key statistics. Their forwards are dominating through the middle, with the Cowboys running for the 3rd most metres and post contact metres per game. An interesting stat is that they have the slowest play the ball speed, whilst also having the least number of offloads per game. It will be interesting to see if Payten gives a licence to players like Taumalolo, Holmes and Hiku to attempt some second phase play, or if he wishes to continue with high completion percentage (3rd) and a high possession rate (3rd).

In defence, it is similar, with the Cowboys eking out small advantages in about all key statistics. The allow less metres, post contact metres, line breaks and tackle breaks. The Cowboy’s defence has looked competent against the lower sides in the competition, and they should be able to hold the Warriors to a low total.

In team news, the Cowboys lose explosive fullback Hamiso Tabuai-Fidow (knee), who will be replaced by Scott Drinkwater at fullback. The only other change from last week is Jamayne Taunoa-Brown coming back into the starting side, at the expense of Reuben Cotter.

For the Warriors, they are sweating on the availability of front rower Addin Fonua-Blake, who has been named in the reserves, with Bunty Afoa expected to take his place if he isn’t fit to go. Jazz Tevaga (Suspension) is also out, which sees Joel Curran at lock and Bayley Sironen starting in the backrow.

The look ahead had the Cowboys as 2.5-point favourites; however, the money has been coming in on the Warriors, with the match a pick em’ at most books, with some having the Warriors as the slightest of favourites. I do not agree with this shift in favouritism, and the Cowboys have the greater body of work so far this season. With odds at greater than $2 around, the Cows get my best bet of the day.

Two prop bets I am looking at are Warriors team total under, and Warriors 2nd half tries under. I am going to trust the Cowboys defence against a below average attack in the Warriors to hold them to 3 tries or less, and under 18. The second half tries bet is interesting, as the Warriors have scored 1 second half try all season, whilst the Cowboys have conceded 4 second half tries all year (1 per game). I think Warriors under 1.5 tries is value.

Prop Bets:
Warriors Under 18.0 ($1.88 at TopSport)
Warriors Under 1.5 2nd Half Tries ($1.98 at Unibet)

Cowboys to win

$2.02 (1.5 Units)

 

Based in Newcastle, Ben earns a living working for the NSW Government, but his real passion lies in sports and sports betting. Ben has spent years developing sports betting models for various sports and has been using these models for the past few years, creating articles for Before You Bet across NRL, NFL, Formula 1, and fantasy sports contests on Draftstars.

A lifelong Penrith Panthers fan, Ben has finally seen some rewards for his years of loyal support, with the Panthers chasing a fourth straight NRL Premiership in 2024.

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