A battle of two desperate teams kicks off Friday Night Football in Round 3, where the Warriors head to Campbelltown to take on the Wests Tigers. The Warriors are coming off the back of a 2-point loss to the Titans last week, where for a second week running, they made a comeback and led the game with just over 20 minutes left.
Unfortunately, for the second week in a row they couldn’t score a single point in the final 20 minutes and lost. The Tigers were woeful, hammered by a Ponga and Klemmer-less Knights team, and never looked interested. They will need a massive turn around in attitude to turn their season around.
As always, stay tuned throughout the 2022 NRL season to get the best betting value when taking on the bookies, with our NRL Tips page previewing all the NRL matches in 2022.
Wests Tigers vs New Zealand Warriors
Campbelltown Sports Stadium, Friday 25th March, 6:00pm (AEDT)
Squads
Wests Tigers
1. Daine Laurie 2. David Nofoaluma 3. James Roberts 4. Oliver Gildart 5. Ken Maumalo 6. Jackson Hastings 7. Luke Brooks 8. James Tamou 9. Jacob Liddle 10. Stefano Utoikamanu 11. Luke Garner 12. Luciano Leilua 13. Joe Ofahengaue. INTERCHANGE: 14. Tyrone Peachey 15. Alex Twal 16. Zane Musgrove 17. Jake Simpkin. RESERVES: 18. Thomas Mikaele 19. Jock Madden 20. Alex Seyfarth 21. Starford To’a 22. Tukimihia Simpkins 23. Austin Dias 24. Ruatapu Ngatikaura
New Zealand Warriors
1. Reec Walsh 2. Adam Pompey 3. Jesse Arthars 4. Rocco Berry 5. Marcelo Montoya 6. Chanel Harris-Tavita 7. Kodi Nikorima 8. Addin Fonua-Blake (c) 9. Wayde Egan 10. Matt Lodge 11. Euan Aitken 12. Eliesa Katoa 13. Josh Curran. INTERCHANGE: 14. Jazz Tevaga 15. Bunty Afoa 16. Aaron Pene 17. Bayley Sironen. RESERVES: 18. Jack Murchie 20. Ben Murdoch-Masila 21. Taniela Otukolo 22. Pride Petterson-Robati 23. Valingi Kepu 24. Junior Ratuva 25. Edward Kosi
Match Preview
With both sides off to an 0-2 start, the palms of both teams’ supporter base are hovering over the proverbial panic button. And whilst an 0-3 start doesn’t necessarily mean season over, it’s a pretty good indication. Going back 10 years in the NRL, only 20% (4/20) of teams that start the season 0-3 go on to make the Finals series. Interestingly, one of these teams (Cowboys 2015), went on to win the competition after starting 0-3. However, I don’t see a Jonathon Thurston on either of these teams. Given this, both teams would be viewing this game as close to a “must win”.
The Tigers started the season quite competitively in their 1st round matchup with the Melbourne Storm, leading them 16-10 with just over 20 minutes remaining. The Storm ran over the top of the Tigers, scoring 3 late tries to win 26-16. In round 2, the Tigers opened 7.5-point underdogs as they travelled to Newcastle to take on the Knights. This massive start was viewed as the Knights being over-valued after their impressive round 1 victory over the Roosters. Late in the week, news broke of Kalyn Ponga being out, and the Tigers moved into just 3.5-point underdogs. The upset was on.
Then, from the moment they took to the field at McDonald Jones Stadium, the Tigers didn’t look prepared. They were horrible, conceding 2 tries inside 10 minute and making error after error. In the end, the Knights outgained the Tigers 1769m to 1286m, the Tigers missed 36 tackles and made 18 errors in easily the most insipid performance so far in 2022.
The Warriors have managed to lead both their first 2 matches, leading the Dragons 16-14 with just under 20 minutes remaining, and led the Titans 18-16 with just over 20 minutes remaining. On both occasions, the Warriors were unable to grind out a victory, and this could be something we see moving forward.
It is the third straight week the Warriors will have a new halves combination, and with that sort of turnover their creative attack will struggle as the combinations take time to gel. They end up needing boom fullback Reece Walsh to pull off something special in the redzone, and whilst he can create points on his own, he can’t be expected to create it all. This a great chance for the Warriors against the Tigers, who have arguably the worst defence in the league right now. It remains to be seen if they can take advantage.
In team news, the Tigers will hope to welcome back captain James Tamou, who is named to start at prop, which sees Alex Twal revert to the bench. Luke Garner comes into the team starting on an edge for the injured Kelma Tuilagi, whilst Jacob Liddle comes back in at hooker, with backup Jake Simpkin reverting to the bench. Jackson Hastings failed to have his dangerous throw charge downgraded and will miss 3 matches, with Jock Madden likely to start at 6.
For the Warriors, Ash Taylor is out through injury, with Kodi Nikorima named to start at 7. No other changes are expected.
Hastings is a huge loss for the Tigers. He has been the most likely to create for the home side in the first 2 rounds, and without him they will have to rely on Brooks, who looks disinterested and incompetent leading this team around the park.
The Warriors should win this. The Tigers appear in a freefall and Michael Maguire must be on the hot seat. I picked the Tigers last week, and they were dismantled. The spread is -2.5, and I don’t trust the Warriors to cover, so will just take the Warriors ML. I would not be surprised if goal kicking wins this for the Warriors in a 14-12 type score line.
Both teams are struggling to score points, and the under seems the bet. The forecast also suggests wet conditions across the weekend in Sydney, so look for points to be at a premium.
Prop Bets:
Under 38.5 ($1.91 at Unibet)
Warriors H2H
$1.82 (2.5 Units)
