2019 Melbourne Cup Preview & Betting Tips

Master Of Reality (1)

Southern France (14)

Cross Counter (5)

Mer De Glace (2)

Mustajeer (6)

Magic Wand* (24)

Latrobe* (22)

Hunting Horn (11)

Finche (4)

Mirage Dancer (13)

Sound (10)

Neufbosc (23)

Twilight Payment (19)

Prince Of Arran (8)

Rostropovich (12)

Surprise Baby (20)

Raymond Tusk (3)

Constantinople (7)

Steel Prince (16)

Downdraft (15)

Youngstar (9)

The Chosen One (18)

Il Paradiso (17)

Vow And Declare (21)

The 2018 winner of the Melbourne Cup. You have to go back to Makybe Diva in 2003-2005 to find the last back-to-back winner of the Cup. Her victory in 2005 was also the last time a horse carried 57.5kg or more to victory. So, history doesn’t bode particularly well for Cross Counter. With that said, we are dealing with one of Europe’s elite stayers here. He won the race as a Northern-Hemisphere three-year-old last year, so returns a more mature and stronger horse this time around. The form behind the likes of Stradivarius is about as good as it gets, we know he runs the trip comfortably and we know he handles a potential wet track. I wonder if he still has the dynamic turn-of-foot we saw from him last year now that he’s a year older. He was explosive last year but his UK runs this year have seemed slightly less dynamic. Whereas we saw him settle toward the back from barrier 21 last year, I think we’ll see him no worse than midfield from barrier 5 this year. He’s a chance but I’ve got others ahead.

The Japanese raider couldn’t have been more impressive in the Caulfield Cup just over two weeks ago. He settled near the back of the field from barrier 17 and put them away in a matter of strides in the straight, a performance which has him now installed as the favourite for this race. That was his first go at 2400m so the obvious query is his ability to stay 3200m. The way he ran through the line in the Caulfield Cup to me suggests he’s more likely than not to get the 3200m, but there’s also the chance he might be too brilliant and 2400m could be his max. He’s now won his past six races on the bounce and we need no reminding just how strong the Japanese form has proved this Spring. He’s another that I’d expect to settle in midfield from the inside draw. I don’t think he’ll be bustled out of the gates given it’s his first attempt at the distance, so they won’t want to do anything to fire him up, but I don’t think we’ll see him as far back as what he was in the Caulfield Cup. The major concern for me has to be the track conditions. Flemington is currently a Soft 6 with more rain predicted on Monday. Will it dry out enough for him in time for Tuesday’s race? I doubt it. He needs it Good or Firm. His one run on Soft ground was a failure, where he was beaten more than 7L. The other little query is the space between runs. All of his career wins have been with at least four weeks off leading into them. He gets just over two weeks break for today's race since his Caulfield Cup win.

One of three Lloyd Williams runners in the race. He’s a Group 3 winner in the UK and more recently placed at Group 1 level behind Stradivarius and Dee Ex Bee in the Ascot Gold Cup over 4000m back in June. He finished ahead of Cross Counter in that race and he meets Cross Counter 2kg better off at the weights for today’s race. Cross Counter didn’t run the trip out particularly strongly there though, he’s much better suited at 3200m. Master Of Reality was beaten 4L by Southern France two starts back in the Irish St Leger trial on Soft ground, and those two finished alongside each other in the St Leger itself. From barrier 1, I think Dettori will be no worse than one pair back, if not leading. He’s a chance.

Ran a terrific race in the Caulfield Cup at his first start in Australia, finishing 3^rd beaten 1.2L. That was his first start in 11 weeks so he should improve off that a touch. He’s untested at the trip but three of his four career victories have come over 2400m so he’s a genuine stayer. In years gone by it’s been highly beneficial to have a lead in run in Australia prior to starting in the Cup. Drawn well to sit midfield from barrier 13 and he has claims at big odds.

Former Aiden O’Brien-trained horse now in the care of Ciaron Maher and David Eustace. He comes through a few similar formlines as some of the other Europeans in the race, having clashed with the likes of Master Of Reality, Cross Counter, Latrobe, Twilight Payment, Mirage Dancer, Downdraft and Mustajeer this year. They’ve all mixed their form a bit and they’ve almost taken turns finishing in different positions. If we look at recent performances, Southern France beat Downdraft by 2L over 2800m on Soft ground two starts back. Downdraft was the winner of Saturday’s Hotham Handicap which was also run on Soft ground, so that form ties in well. Last time he ran, Southern France ran 3^rd in the G1 Irish St Leger behind Search For A Song and Kew Gardens, with Cross Counter about a head behind him in 4^th. I think this stable has the potential to improve him and he should enjoy a good run forward of midfield from barrier 13. Soft ground is a plus in my opinion and he’s worth including.

Got absolutely everything go his way in the Moonee Valley Gold Cup and appreciated the steep drop in class from what he’d been facing overseas. We did see that form franked with Downdraft coming out of that race to win Saturday’s Hotham Handicap, but I think this is a major step up in grade. Notably, Ryan Moore jumps off to ride stablemate Magic Wand. He’s a top 10 chance but he won’t be winning this.

The second Lloyd Williams runner, to be ridden by James McDonald from barrier 22. While the barrier looks bad, we’ve seen wide barriers at the fore in recent years, so it’s not the end of the world. This horse won the G1 Irish Derby as a three-year-old and we saw him in Australia last Spring, where he was aimed at the G1 Mackinnon Stakes. He ran 2^nd behind Trap For Fools on that occasion. Back in June he ran 4^th at Royal Ascot, where he basically finished alongside Magic Wand, before running 2^nd to Twilight Payment over 2800m. He won a six-runner Group 3 over 2400m two starts ago and finished 6th in the Irish St Leger last start, behind Southern France (3^rd), Cross Counter (4^th) and Master Of Reality (5^th). Obviously have to respect this stable and connections but I’d be surprised.

Made his Australian debut in the Caulfield Cup, where he ran 6^th beaten 1.8L. He ran home in similar sectionals to both Constantinople and Mirage Dancer and I think the step up to 2800m is really going to suit him. He was the winner of the Ebor Handicap at York before coming to Australia and we’ve seen that form hold up in recent years. He’s another that’s been taking turns and mixing form in Europe alongside the other raiders. At Navan back in April, he was beaten a head by Master Of Reality, with Southern France and Twilight Payment behind him. In June he finished midfield in the Curragh Cup, which was won by Twilight Payment ahead of Latrobe, and he then won the Ebor. He’s drawn well, gets an in-form and big-race jockey on board in Damien Oliver and the Soft ground is likely to suit him better than Good ground. He’s a chance but 7YO’s have a poor record in this race.

Returns after running 5^th in this race last year, which was a big effort after being caught wide without cover for part of the race. He the spent 39 weeks off the track and has so far failed to rediscover any kind of form in his three starts back. He’s had some excuses in his last two starts having endured wide runs throughout, but he’s still been beaten a long way and it would be hard to make a case for him here.

The third and final Lloyd Williams runner. Interestingly, Lloyd seems to think he’s no hope. He was a game winner of the Curragh Cup two starts ago, defeating Latrobe, Southern France and Mustajeer, so on that form you’d have to consider him some sort of chance. That was the same race Rekindling won before coming to Australia and winning the Cup in 2017. In fact, he’s followed a very similar path to what Rekindling did, the only difference being Rekindling had one more run between the Curragh Cup and the Irish St Leger. Twilight Payment instead had a longer break after the Curragh Cup and went into the Irish St Leger first up, where he finished midfield. The other difference is Rekindling was a Northern Hemisphere 3YO, whereas Twilight Payment is a 7YO and therefore carries 3.5kg more. He’s never won second up from a spell but he’s placed in four of his five attempts. Bowman takes the ride and I think he’s a definite top 10 chance.

Ran 4^th in this race last year, beaten 3.5L by Cross Counter, Marmelo and Prince Of Arran. He carries the exact same weight this year. I thought he ran well in the Caulfield Cup last start after covering ground for at least the first half of the race. He as only beaten 1.6L by Mer De Glace and he gets a few things in his favour today. Firstly, we know he can run the trip, we know he can handle wet ground, he’s drawn much better than he did in the Caulfield Cup and he gets a 1kg weight swing on the Japanese horse. Four 6YO’s have won this race in the past 10 years and they’ve all carried between 53-54.5kg so he’s weighted perfectly with 54kg. Kerrin McEvoy is one of, if not the best, rider in the country in staying races and the horse has been aimed at this race all along. Chris Waller can hardly be going any better than what he currently is and the horse has to be rated a huge chance this time around.

Just seems to grow a leg in Australia, this horse. His European form is nothing particularly special, especially compared to some of the other internationals in the race, but he’s had five starts in Australia for two wins and three placings. He ran 3^rd in this race last year and that was after backing up from the Hotham Handicap three days earlier. He’s better suited this year having won his way into the race with victory in the Geelong Cup, which gives him an extra 10 days recovery compared to last year. The form is somewhat questionable out of that Geelong Cup, given Haky ran poorly last weekend, but the race itself was the fastest Geelong Cup in the past 15 years. The previous winners of the three fastest Geelong Cups were Media Puzzle, Zazzman and On A Jeune, who then went on to run 1^st, 3^rd and 2^nd in their respective Melbourne Cups. So that’s a big positive. He’s a 7YO but he’s flying, he’s drawn well, he only carries 1kg more than last year and he’s had a better set up for the race. He’s a terrific place chance.

5YO UK raider trained by Richard Hannon and ridden by Jamie Spencer. His placings behind the likes of Dee Ex Bee and Crystal Ocean certainly warrant respect, as does his 4^th placing in the Ebor last time we saw him. We’ve seen the Ebor stand up as a good form race in years gone by. He’s only had one run on Soft ground and that was two starts ago in the Ascot Gold Cup, where he was well beaten, but that was behind Stradivarius who is arguably the best stayer in the world, so it’s probably more to do with being outclassed than not handling the surface. His breeding suggests the ground will be no issue. He runs the trip, draws well and on his best form would be competitive.

Has had two starts in Australia leading into the Cup, finishing 3^rd in the Moonee Valle Gold Cup before winning the Hotham Handicap on Saturday over 2500m here at Flemington. That was on Soft ground, so we know he’ll relish the conditions, but the race itself looked particularly weak and he’d have to improve to win this in my opinion. He did split Southern France and Master Of Reality in the Irish St Leger Trial before coming to Australia, so his form isn’t completely lacking substance, but I think there’s others better.

Magic Wand ran well in the Cox Plate where she finished 4^th after leading the field up. She was pressured mid-race by Black Heart Bart on that occasion, which probably took out of her finish, so it was a good run all things considered. She doesn’t win out of turn with just two victories from 19 starts, but she’s always around the mark and always tries. She’s untested at this distance but does have a 4L victory over 2400m to her name. The big negative for her is going to be the potentially wet track. If it’s still in the Soft range come Cup time, I don’t give her much of a chance. She seems to like it as firm as possible. Barrier 24 makes things very interesting. We saw her lead in the Cox Plate, but we’ve also seen her ridden dead cold from wide barriers in the past with Ryan Moore aboard, and with good effect. I wouldn’t be surprised if she sped across to lead, but I also wouldn’t be surprised to see her snagged to the back, especially as it’s her first try at the distance. I was keen on her chances in the Cox Plate but I prefer others.

Has had five starts in Australia and hasn’t finished closer than 4.5L off the winner. No chance.

He’s actually not completely hopeless here. He was travelling into the race rather well in the Caulfield Cup but he got cut in half in the straight. I reckon his run was better than what it might seem on paper. With that said, he’s had eight starts in Australia and hasn’t finished closer than 4^th, and even then, he was beaten 6L. Hard to make a case for.

Looks a realistic winning chance for the locals; I think he’s right in this. He’s got five wins from 10 career starts and returned from a spell in September with an eye-catching run in the Feehan Stakes at Moonee Valley. He then went straight from the mile to the 2500m of The Bart Cummings, where he settled back in the field and powered home over the top of them. He carried 57kg on that occasion and drops to 53.5kg for today’s race. Almandin won The Bart Cummings back in 2016 before going on to win the Cup at his next start and both have similar racing patterns. Jordan Childs will need to produce a gem from barrier 20, but two of the past three winners have started from barriers 19 and 17, while Heartbreak City started from barrier 23 when 2^nd to Almandin in 2016, so it’s not necessarily a bad thing. He’s a great each way chance.

What do we do with him? I was very keen on him in the Caulfield Cup and he ran enormous, he arguably should have won the race with any luck. He settled midfield but by the home turn he’d been dragged back to last. He then got held up once again at the 300m mark before balancing up and hitting the line strongly. He’s not the type of horse that can just stop and sprint. He’s a big, gangly, lanky horse that needs time to wind up, but when he gets going, he can really lengthen stride. There’s no doubt Mer De Glace has a better turn of foot than him, but he’s going to handle the track better than the Japanese horse and he’s also going to relish Flemington in my opinion. I don’t think there’s any queries about him getting 3200m either. Barrier 7 will see him sit midfield again and I think the instruction to Moreira will be to have him in clear galloping room as early as possible. He profiles exceptionally well as a 4YO with 52.5kg here and I suppose the only little query is whether he’s mature enough at this stage. He tends to do a few things wrong in the run and can find trouble, and you can’t afford to do that in a Melbourne Cup with quality opposition. He deserves to be where he is in betting markets and I’ll be having something on.

Fascinating runner. Only had the eight career starts and he’s a typical light-raced Northern Hemisphere 3YO that gets in light under the race conditions. We’ve seen these exact types of horses perform so well in recent years. Rekindling (2017) had only had nine starts before winning his Melbourne Cup, carrying 51.5kg, and last year Cross Counter had only had seven starts before carrying 51kg to victory. Notably, Il Paradiso’s last run was at the same meeting at York this year that Cross Counter ran at leading into the Cup last year, however they tackled different races. Cross Counter ran 2^nd in a G2 over 2400m, while Il Paradiso 3^rd in a field of four over 3250m at G2 level. Cross Counter went straight into the Cup after that race but Il Paradiso ran again at York in the St Leger, finishing 5^th. The important take away from that is that Rekindling ran 4^th in the exact same race the start prior to winning his Cup in 2017. So, the path he’s taken here is one we’ve seen before and one that’s worked very well. Drawn barrier 17 but Cross Counter drew 19 last year and Almandin drew 17 in 2016. We know he runs the trip; we know he handles soft ground and we know he profiles well. The blinkers go on for the first time too. The only query I have is that Ryan Moore is riding Magic Wand, leaving Wayne Lordan to pick up the ride. I’m not sure if Moore can ride 52.5kg so that could be the answer. Has to be considered a leading chance!

He’s seemingly struggled to recapture his form from earlier in the year in his three runs back from a spell. It certainly didn’t help that he was scratched at the gates and missed a run prior to his last start, but even last start he didn’t catch the eye in the run to the line. He does have a terrific record at this track and he of course went to the line locked together with Surprise Baby in the Andrew Ramsden Stakes in May, but he hasn’t shown that same form since. The wet ground is another little query as he seems to appreciate the firmer going. I would say this stable is probably the best grand final stable in the country, but I have to take him on today.

Was impressive winning the Herbert Power Stakes three starts ago when the blinkers were applied, but has struggled since. He found it hard coming from the back of the field in the Caulfield Cup, where he drew wide, but he didn’t finish the race off as well as he could have, and he was below par in the Hotham Handicap on Saturday. The blinkers come back off today in an attempt to get him to settle given he over raced on the weekend, but I can’t make a case for him.

He’s had a fascinating prep and he has to be considered. Went into the G1 Turnbull Stakes first up from a spell and caught the eye running home into 4^th, and backed that up with a terrific run in the Caulfield Cup last start, beaten a length by Mer De Glace. He bolted in by more than 3L last preparation when he got up to 3000m, and even though the field was very weak, he couldn’t have been more impressive. Gets a 1kg weight swing on Mer De Glace and gets in with a weight he can certainly win with, it’s just whether he has the class of the European bred stayers. From barrier 21, I think they’ll try and have him as close as they can without getting caught wide without cover. I think in an ideal scenario, he’ll slot in midfield or worse than midfield with some cover, but it will take a very good piece of riding. He’s a top 5 chance and has to be respected.

She showed a return to form last start in the ATC St Leger and Carif came out of that race to run 2^nd in the Hotham Handicap on Saturday, but I struggle to see her winning this. She did run 6^th in this race last year but I think she was going better into last year’s race than what she is at the moment.