It’s probably not what the AFL had in mind when determining the fixtures, but we've got 18th placed Sydney hosting 11th placed Essendon on Friday night to kick off Round 8 of the 2019 AFL season. As always, we’ve broken down the game and provided our best bet for the fixture, which you can find below.
Don’t forget, Sydney vs Essendon will be our focus today, but you can head to our AFL Tips Page for a bunch of content for Round 8 in the AFL including preview and tips for EVERY GAME.
Friday 10thof May 7:50PM (AEST), SCG
The Swans are in desperate need of a win as they find themselves in an unfamiliar position at the bottom of the ladder. On the other hand, the Bombers have lost back-to-back games themselves and will be looking to bounce back with a win when they travel to Sydney on Friday night.
The Swans have had a horror season to date with their lone win coming against 17thplaced Carlton in Round 3. Their 1-6 record and poor percentage has them sitting on the bottom of the ladder after seven rounds.
The Swans showed glimpses of their old selves last weekend against the Lions at the GABBA. They trailed by 28 at quarter time but were able to bring it back to just two points at the half. However, they couldn’t keep up with the young Lions in the second half and would end up losing by 22 points.
With so many players out of form for the Swans, it’ll be interesting to see if John Longmire swings the axe at the selection table. Lack of leg speed has been a real issue for the Swans this season, so expect at least a couple of personnel changes this week.
The Bombers have had a mixed bag this season as they currently sit in 11thposition with three wins and four losses. They started off the season with two poor losses before bouncing back with three wins, only to lose their next two to bring us to where we are today.
The Bombers were simply outcoached and outplayed by Chris Scott and the Cats in Round 7. They were beaten in all four quarters en route to a 32-point loss in what was a step back from the great footy they played in the month prior. Jake Stringer was the positive for the Bombers, booting 3.2 from his 18 touches.
We don’t expect any drastic changes from John Worsfold this week on the back of one bad loss. After all, the Cats are the league’s best team the moment and they get a chance to bounce back against the league’s worst this Friday night.
The home team has won each of the last six and 10 of the last 12 meetings between the Swans and the Bombers. However, five of the last six meetings have been in Sydney, which means the Swans are 5-1 in that period.
Last five meetings:
2018 R19 – Essendon(109) defeated Sydney (66)
2017 EF – Sydney (121) defeated Essendon (56)
2017 R14 – Sydney (86) defeated Essendon (85)
2016 R7 – Sydney(135) defeated Essendon (54)
2015 R1 – Sydney(72) defeated Essendon (60)
While the Bombers have clearly been the better of the two teams this season, we expect a big response from the Swans this weekend. It wasn’t too long ago that the Swans started the season at 0-6 and went on to make finals. Admittedly, the Swans had a far better list than they do now, but they still have plenty of top-end talent that would be disgusted with how they’ve played up until this point.
The bookies have priced the Bombers as just under two goals favourite to go to 4-4 on the season. However, the Swans have won each of the last five matches against the Bombers at the SCG by an average margin of over 30 points and will be determined to put an end to their losing ways. We have a desperate Swans outfit getting the win on Friday night or at least going very close to doing so.
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