Round 22 of the 2019 AFL Premiership Season kicks off on Friday night with a match that certainly won’t be breaking any attendance/viewing records. It’s the Demons vs Swans at the MCG from 7:50pm AEST. Following this clash will be a five-game slate on Saturday and a three-game slate on Sunday.
Make sure you check out our AFL Tips Page for a bunch of content for Round 22 in the AFL including previews and tips for EVERY GAME.
Both clubs featuring in this Friday night fixture have had less than ideal seasons, to say the least. However, a good winning performance here can help take some positivity into the off-season.
The Demons put up a decent fight last time out against the Magpies. They were in the game up to their eyeballs but fell short once again by 17 points. Clayton Oliver was best afield for the Demons with 29 touches and 11 tackles, Angus Brayshaw returned to form with 26 touches and a goal, while Max Gawn had his coloured lowered for the first time this year by Brodie Grundy.
The Demons injury list grew even longer with Steven May going down with a hamstring. It’s been a disappointing first year at the club for May who’s hardly been able to string games together. This is the last home match for the Demons this season and anything short of a win will see them finish the year in 17th position.
The Swans were outplayed again in their most recent match against the Power. They trailed by 15 points at half time and were putting up a decent fight but ended up going down by 47 points. Oliver Florent was best afield for the Swans with 29 disposals, 25 of which were kicks. Isaac Heeney continued his strong form with 20 touches and two goals, while Jake Lloyd racked it up as usual with 30 disposals.
It’ll be interesting to see who gets the job in the ruck vs Max Gawn on Friday night. Hayden McLean was exposed last weekend by Peter Ladhams and Aliir Aliir is simply too small to compete with by Maxy. Naismith is supposedly fit and ready for action, so he could end up being called upon.
The Swans have had the better of the Demons in recent years, winning seven of their past eight meetings. However, the Demons won their earlier meeting with the Swans at the SCG this season.
Last five meetings:
2019 R4 – Sydney (78) lost to Melbourne (100)
2018 R21 – Melbourne (78) lost to Sydney (87)
2017 R15 – Melbourne (50) lost to Sydney (85)
2016 R13 – Sydney (86) defeated Melbourne (31)
2015 R6 – Melbourne (50) lost to Sydney (88)
Key Betting Statistics
- The home team has only won four times in the last 21 fixtures between these clubs.
- Sydney have won seven of the last eight meetings with Melbourne.
- Melbourne have lost their last five matches by a margin between 1-39.
- Daniel Menzel has kicked 4+ goals in three of his last four vs Melbourne.
Both teams have been given nearly equal chances to win this match by the bookies with the Demons just slight favourites. We believe that’s about right considering neither team has won a match in their last five.
For us, we’ll be backing the ‘unders’ trend to continue on from last week, which was the lowest scoring round in AFL history (since the nine-match round was introduced). Neither the Demons nor the Swans have scored over 85 points in their last five fixtures, so we’re happy to bet on this game going under 155.
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