The dust has settled after the spectacular 2016 Melbourne Cup, but we're straight into the third day of the Carnival where the 2016 Crown Oaks for the fillies is the highlight of the show.
The rail moves out 3m for the meeting and the track will remain around the Good 3-4 range.
We have a 9 race card on the program and we have horse racing betting tips, including a full preview of the Group 1 Crown Oaks:
2016 Crown Oaks Day Betting Tips
Race 1 - Red Rock Deli Plate 1700m
Tough race to start the day with $6 the field here. Two I'm interested in backing here, but a number of these could win.
SEA THE SPARKLE is the first of those for Darren Weir. Undefeated so far and although she's only coming off a Stawell win, we saw on Tuesday with Speedeor and before that with Tiamo Grace that Weir runners coming from provincial tracks to the city must be considered genuine chances. Both her wins have been on wet ground so as long as she handles the firmer track she should go close at $7.50.
The other is Tony McEvoy's runner DAISY'S JOY. You always have to respect when he brings runners to Melbourne and this one comes off a 4 length win at Balaklava. Admittedly this is significantly harder but if you go back through her form she has measured up in similar races in Sydney. Third up here, 1700m looks ideal and Kerrin McEvoy takes the ride. She's at $8.50.
Plenty of other chances in the race. MONTOYA'S SECRET will relish stepping up in distance and looks over the odds at $21, so I'm happy to back the two above with a dollar or two on Montoya as well.
Tip: SEA THE SPARKLE / DAISY'S JOY
Race 2 - Twitter Trophy 1800m
Another very open race with a number of chances.
I expect COOL CHAP to be thereabouts at his third run back from a break. He extended to 2800m last prep so this might still be a touch short, but his run last start in the Sale Cup was good, and getting back to Flemington should suit him here. Up in distance, peaking in fitness and looks backable at $8.
CURRAGH is the other one I'll be backing. He didn't handle the tight Moonee Valley track last start when he was runner up as the short priced favourite. The jockey that day suggested the horse wanted a bigger track, and that's exactly what he gets here. Oliver takes the ride and I'll be backing him at $9.50.
Other chances include perennial money-munchers DATA POINT and PILOTE D'ESSAI, who will send Twitter into meltdown if either win, and I think former WA horse BOOM TIME can run a big race here. He should have won 2nd up last prep and his first up run this time in was good, so $16 looks value.
Tip: COOL CHAP / CURRAGH (best value)
Race 3 - Off The Track Subzero Handicap 1400m
Three main chances here for mine. Sticking with MURT THE FLIRT after a decent enough win at Caulfield last start. Up in grade again but drops 1kg in the weights and more importantly he draws to get the box seat once again so should get all the favours in the run.
ROCK FORTHE LADIES has been running in good form in Sydney with a good win over this distance at Randwick last start. The concern here is the 60kg he lumps, which is 2.5kg more than any other horse. HARBOUR GREY holds some claims at his third run back from a spell. He's never missed a place at this distance and also has a terrific record at the track. From barrier 1 with only 54kg he looks a good value chance at $11.
Wary of the Brisbane horse PEPPERANO and Oliver's mount FABULONH, but happy to risk ONEROUS.
Tip: MURT THE FLIRT
Race 4 - 3AW Talking Melbourne Mile 1600m
Three main chances here and it could pay to stick with PAY UP BRO who flew home last start over 1500m to just miss, so the step uo to 1600m looks ideal. He step up in grade but enjoys a 5kg weight drop to 54kg so if he can get cover from barrier 11 he looks a good chance.
The hardest to beat looks to be the pair from the Hayes/Dabernig stable. I'm really expecting MIHANY to bounce back to form here after performing just as the huge market drift suggested he would last start. Drops a bit in weight but the key is getting back to a very firm surface. I think he could be overs at $8.50. His stablemate GRANDE ROSSO looks a danger, too. He won easily on his debut for the stable last start without really being tested, so up to 1600m with 54kg on his back should see him go close.
Tip: PAY UP BRO
Race 5 - TCL QUHD TV Stakes 1800m
Very keen on EXOCET here. This is a very talented filly and her win three starts back at this track proved that. Following that she pulled up with mucus, and then last start she ran a huge race despite being the clearly inferior part of the track. The 3rd horse out of that race has since come out and won a Group 1! If Dunn can give her a good ride she should be very hard to beat.
The biggest danger looks to be ROCKSTAR REBEL for Darren Weir. His two starts this campaign have both suggested he is crying out for extra ground and he gets that with the step up to 1800m here. He'll go back and should get every chance to launch at them late on this track.
Very keen to back EXOCET even at the $2.50. I think she is the best of the day, but will be covering my losses with ROCKSTAR REBEL AT $7.50.
Tip: EXOCET (BEST BET)
Race 6 - L'Oreal Paris Stakes 1400m
This is a cracking race. Ultimately, I think TAKEDOWN is the best horse in the race at the moment. His win two starts ago over Our Boy Malachi looks even better when you consider Our Boy Malachi came out and belted some very good sprinters. Last start he was also desperately unlucky behind Voodoo Lad and should have gone close to winning. The biggest issue I have here is both barrier 12 and the 59.5kg. If he has to work early the weight may tell late on.
CLEARLY INNOCENT will relish stepping out to the 1400m. The 1100m and 1200m might have been a touch short for him so far this prep, but at his third run back he looks ready to improve sharply. He draws wide but that's okay as he will go back anyway. If the pace is good he will be flashing home late with just 54kg on his back.
FEDERAL gets all the favours today from the inside barrier. He didn't run the 1600m out last start so dropping back to 1400m suits him much better, while RAGEESE is the other to consider back down to 54kg after a runner up finish with 59.5kg last start. I can't back him to win given how unpredictable he is but he holds definite claims.
Tip: CLEARLY INNOCENT
Race 7 - Mumm Stakes 1000m
Looks between HELLBENT and TERRAVISTA and I'm siding with Darren Weird horse, who I think would have won the Caulfield Sprint if he wasn't scratched last start. He's been dominant in his last two wins and the wide draw will help him here. Provided he has taken no ill-effect from his incident, he looks very hard to beat.
TERRAVISTA is the class in the field and he's trialled well leading into this. His first up record is phenomenal and he should have won the Lightning over Chautauqua first up last prep. 60.5kg first up a query but no surprise to see him win.
REDZEL probably didn't handle the Valley last start but his form previous to that suggests he can run a big race here, and the same can be said about FLAMBERGE. One at $67 that might run a cheeky race is RUNSATI who loves the Flemington straight races.
Tip: HELLBENT
Race 8 - CROWN OAKS 2500M
The Group 1 looks at the mercy of YANKEE ROSE here after it was announced that Tiamo Grace wouldn't be lining up. It's very hard to see her getting beat if she handles the trip after producing a massive effort to finish 3rd in the Cox Plate. Group 1 winner over 2000m two starts ago, she's the obvious class in the field.
Hardest to beat could be HARLOW GOLD who finished alongside Prized Icon last start, who then won the Derby. The stable have no doubt she will run the trip, and that alone gives her winning claims. Her stablemate SEBRING DREAM finished runner up to Tiamo Grace last start over 2000m at this track. McDonald sticks with her and if she handles the step up to 2500m, which I think she will, she also has claims.
There is nothing wrong with the form of ELEONORA, who beat home Tiamo Grace last start. She was perhaps a bit lucky to have won that but the form line reads very strong. She'll need luck slotting in from barrier 10.
There's been early money for BELLA SORELLASTRA who we backed last start but she ran a shocker. Two stats ago her run was just as good as Sebring Dream's and this is the first time she's drawn a decent barrier since her win four starts ago. She might be able to settle closer to the speed today and I wouldn't be surprised to see her run a big race at $26. SMART AS YOU THINK could be another value chance at $16.
Sticking with Yankee Rose to win her third Group 1, but at $1.65 I won't be betting because there is still the query of her handling 2500m. I'd put her in a double with Exocet perhaps, or look to back one of the others at bigger odds.
Tip: YANKEE ROSE
Race 9 - Crown Resorts Plate 1100m
This looks to be between two horses. SPRIGHT is undefeated this prep and her win last start was impressive, charging away to win by nearly 3 lengths. That form makes her very hard to beat here and she looks one of the best bets on the card in my opinion.
KENTUCKY MISS is the other one, who has also won her last two races. Three starts ago she ran 3rd to Star Turn, before winning down the straight here, and then again in Sydney last start. The fact she's had straight track success bodes very well and if Spright doesn't win I think this one does.
Happy to have a good bet on Spright at $3.40 and cover losses with Kentucky Miss at $6.
Tip: SPRIGHT
Take note: Any of the tips in this article are simply the author’s opinion, so bet at your own risk and always gamble responsibly. Also be sure to check out the Before You Bet Twitter Page for all our thoughts in the lead up to bets! Happy punting!
