The 2016 Melbourne Cup Day is here and we've got a 10-race card to find winners for, including the race that stops a nation!
The Flemington track is a Good 3 for Cup Day, and even though there's a drop of rain predicted I don't think it will be anywhere near enough to affect the track. Rail in the True position.
We've got racing betting tips for every race on the card, including a preview with my top 5 in the Cup, so let's find some winners!
2016 Melbourne Cup Day Betting Tips
Race 1 - Ottawa Stakes 1000m
MADEENATY looks incredibly hard to beat here after a dominant debut win at this track and distance. The benefit of having that run down the straight against a field of runners who are unraced is key. She cruised in by over 2 lengths that day and I don't see anything beating her here.
The value in the race could be STRAVIERA. This horse is trained by Henry Dwyer which makes the booking of Damien Oliver an eye-catching one and suggests she may be ready to run a big race on debut. Her jump out was very sharp so at $15 she will run a big race I think. The other to consider is Robert Smerdon's BALLE D'OR, who trialled well and followed that up with a good jump out. Dwayne Dunn is another noticeable booking and at $26 she might be one to include.
Tip: Madeenaty
Race 2 - TAB.com.au Trophy 1700m
This looks quite a thin race with plenty struggling for form and for that reason I think MODEL DRAGON looks one of the best bets of the day here. This mare is undefeated and while she only won a BM64 at Cranbourne first up, it was a dominnant win and she carried 59kg. Drops down to 54kg here and against a field struggling for form, she looks a very good bet at $3.30.
SORT AFTER's win two starts ago reads well but she pulled up with poor post-race recovery last start and I question whether she will run the mile so I'm prepared to overlook her. JESSY BELLE drops heavily in grade so despite carrying 59.5kg I would expect her to be in the finish, she could be the vaue at $10.
Tip: Model Dragon
Race 3 - Prince of Penzance Plate 2800m
Really like the look of MURPHY'S DELIGHT here who looks like he is ready to peak at his fourth run back from a spell. His preparation so far has been spot on for a race like this and the step up to 2800m looks perfect now. Barrier 8 is ideal and Bowman takes the ride. $6.50 looks a nice price in a field with a lot of dead wood.
Dangers include his stable KINEMA who has his second Australian start after running 4th behind Qewy, Grey Lion and Oceanographer in the Geelong Cup. We know that form is strong and Ryan Moore takes the ride here - it will need to be a good ride from barrier 22. CINNAMON CARTER looks over the odds at $17. She won well three starts ago before a complete forgive run two starts back. Bounced back last Friday night with a win over 2500m at the Valley so she is in terrific form. On the quick back up here and should go well. MORNING MIX is the other one that has a good chance of winning. Has run 2nd and 3rd in his two starts in Australia. Up to 2800m now at his third run so should be hitting peak fitness and importantly drops from 60kg to 54kg here. Looks a strong chance.
Tip: Murphy's Delight
Race 4 - Lavazza Prontissimo 1400m
DEMONSTRATE looks mighty hard to beat here if he produces what he has been so far this prep. Only went down to Hellbent first up before two convincing wins over 1200m, the latest of which was an effortless win by over 3 lengths. Step up to 1400m looks fine and he's the one to beat.
I think SOVEREIGN NATION runs 2nd here and I think the horse is absolutely flying. His run last start was enormous after storming home from well back in the field, after also being held up. Blinkers back on here and he's a realistic chance of knocking off the favourite. LUCKY LIBERTY the only other danger.
Demonstrate is $1.80 but if you're after value Sovereign Nation eachway at $7.50/$2.10 appeals.
Tip: Demonstrate
Race 5 - Schweppes #FlemingtonFling 1000m
Looks a very open race on paper but if I've learnt one thing about Darren Weir runners recently it's to not ignore their previous runs at lesser tracks. We saw that with Tiamo Grace and it could be the case with SPEEDEOR here. This horse failed miserably as the $1.50 favourite on debut in May before returning with a blistering win at Cranbourne a couple of weeks ago. I think he'll measure up to this and $5.50 is a good price to find out.
One at value could be DREAM FIRST who ran 3rd in the Blue Diamond Preview for fillies last prep before failing in the Prelude. Resumes for the first time since that run and her jump out was pretty sharp. She's at $15. Others to consider are BIASED WITNESS, AMANAAT and the Phillip Stokes runner NEAPOLITAN.
Tip: Speedeor
Race 6 - Lexus Hybrid Plate 1400m
Four main hopes here. SYLPHEED can bounce back after facing the breeze last start and sticking on to finish within a length of the winner. With a better run from barrier 3 today she can reproduce the form that saw her bolt in first up.
SWEET SHERRY was impressive at the Valley last start and she looks to be flying this prep. The way she finished off last start suggests the step up to 1400m will be within her capabilities and she's 1 from 1 at the track so she should go well.
MY COUNTRY is racing very consistently without managing to crack another win. She went down by a lip last start and Paul Snowden did say before that run that she was working very well, so if she handles the rise to 1400m she should once again be competitive.
FARAWAY TOWN is the interesting runner in the race for mine. Finished 3rd in the Gr1 Sires Produce behind Yankee Rose last prep and then 3L off Prized Icon in the Champagne Stakes. Returned with a good 3rd behind the smart Spright first up and up to 1400m on a big track should suit. $10 looks a nice price.
Tip: Sylpheed / Faraway Town EW
Race 7 - Emirates Melbourne Cup 3200m
I found this year's Melbourne Cup quite difficult to assess for a number of reasons but mainly due to the large number of internationals engaged. This year's Cup looks set to be run at a very genuine tempo, with Big Orange, Curren Mirotic, Wicklow Brave, Gallante and Qewy all capable of leading. If you look back through the history of the Cup, there aren't many horses that win after being right up on the pace, and I think that will be the case again this year given the solid tempo I expect. In the end I've tried to narrow it down to my top 5 (not in order):
BIG ORANGE
I agree with his trainer when he says this horse is the best two-miler in the field, and one of the best in Europe. He ran 5th in this race last year and since then has been in outstanding form. He's won both his last two starts in quite impressive fashion - one was a Group 2 over 2400m and the other was a Group 2 over 3200m carrying 61kg. Draws significantly better this year with barrier 7 which will allow him to find the lead quite easily I think. He will definitely run the distance, has the right form and 57kg isn't much of a problem for him, but the thing that will bring him down is the expected fight for the lead. I don't think he'll get it all his own way and as history shows, it's difficult to lead and win in this race.
EXOSPHERIC
Flying under the radar but he profiles very well for this race. Back in April he beat Simple Verse and Big Orange covincingly over 2400m, albeit on Soft ground. In his last start before coming to Australia he ran 5th behind Postponed in the Juddmonte - that horse was favourite for the Arc this year. He ran a terrific race in the Caulfield Cup despite a few things not going his way, and the key with that is history is against international horses coming into the Melbourne Cup first up so having a lead up race here is beneficial. The slight query with Exospheric is this is his first go at the distance, but from barrier 13 he will slot in worse than midfield and the tempo will suit him. I think he is a massive chance if he can run out the distance and at $20 he looks very appealing.
WICKLOW BRAVE
I have been very keen on this horse ever since his last start win over Order Of St George, who is one of the best stayers in Europe. That's why my heart dropped when he drew barrier 24! We saw his trainer Willie Mullins bring Max Dynamite over last year and that horse probably should have won. This horse is similar to Max Dynamite in that he's mixed his racing over jumps and the flat, but he's a better horse than Max Dynamite and if he brings the form he produced to win the Irish St Leger, he gives this a massive shake. He led all the way on the occasion, albeit it was only a 3 horse field, so I would think they'll go forward from barrier 24, but I can't be sure. Big Orange did beat him by over 3 lengths over this distance back in July, which tells you how good he is on his day. I think he can win despite the barrier and you must include him at $16.
ALMANDIN
Looks the best of the Williams bunch and the money has started to flow for him, now into $12. It took him three runs to find his form in Australia but as soon as he stepped up to the 2400m he showed his class. His last two runs have been convincing wins and his win over 2500m in the Bart Cummings suggests to me that the 3200m won't be any problem because he won that untouched. Prior to coming to Australia he beat home a horse called Protectionist in a Group 2 in Germany - that horse came to Australia and won the Cup 5 months later. Almandin then had two years off the track, so it's reasonable to assume that he is only going to keep improving the more he races, so he comes into this peaking. Kerrin McEvoy is absolutely flying at present, he will go back from barrier 17 and settle worse than midfield, and he's another that will be suited by the pace. Can win.
OCEANOGRAPHER
Wow, what a win in the Lexus! It was only a relatively average field that he beat, but the sectionals he produced to win after settling last suggests he is every bit good enough to win this. The slight query is this is his third race in 13 days, which he's never come close to doing before, but there are positives with it. Firstly, he's rock hard fit and his Lexus run suggests he will eat up 3200m. Second, history suggests you need a lead up run in Australia before the Melbourne Cup - he's had two and has been huge in both. Third, horses coming through the Lexus have performed well in the Cup - Signoff ran 4th two years ago after winning the Lexus. Additional to all that, this horse will get the tempo he needs, draws the most successful barrier in Cup history and is weighted to win. His profile ticks all the boxes of a Melbourne Cup winner and if Godolphin is going to win, this is the horse that will do it for them, not Hartnell in my very humble opinion!
Others worth mentioning:
Hartnell comes into the race with a similar preparation to that of 2013 Cup winner Fiorente. I have a few concerns with Hartnell - his two starts over 3200m in Australia have both been massive failures. I also think, as we saw in the Cox Plate, he doesn't like it when the pressure really goes on, and I think this is going to be a high pressure, high tempo race for the majority. He could win, but at the price I can't touch him.
Jameka is flying, there's no denying that, but she will have to do something unprecedented by carrying 54.5kg to victory as a 4YO mare. Ethereal was the last 4YO mare to win, but she carried 52kg. Even Makybe Diva's first win was with 51kg as a 5YO mare. I think she'll run the 3200m but weight over this distance makes a huge difference and I just think it will be a bit too much for her.
Bondi Beach is probably the price he is because of the O'Brien/Moore factor. He's a talented horse but I don't think his form leading into this is particularly strong, and doesn't warrant being $10 fourth favourite.
Qewy is one horse in the field that will undoubtedly run the 3200m and love every bit of it. He is another that has had the 'all important' lead up race in Australia and he won't know himself with 51.5kg.
Gallante is the best value in the race in my opinion. The negative with him is that he likes to lead, but he won't be getting things his own way here. If you put a line through his last run however, his form looks pretty good, and we know he'll run 3200m after his Sydney Cup win. Gets a big weight turnaround on Jameka and is much fitter here. $61 looks huge.
So who wins? Having considered the likely pace of the race, the barriers, weights, history and more importantly the form, I see this being between EXOSPHERIC and OCEANOGRAPHER, and I'll be backing both equally, but I also found it tough to leave out Almandin who is next best. Big Orange and Wicklow Brave also have a chance, while Gallante is the best value in the race at $61. We can have saver bets on pretty much all of them at the prices.
Tip: Exospheric ($20) / Oceanographer ($9)
Race 8 - James Boag's Premium Stakes 1800m
I don't like backing Waterhouse runners in Melbourne but I'm going to back my second one for the day here with FABRIZIO who looks to be flying. Ignore his run two starts ago in the Epsom where the jock thought he was running an 800m race. His win last start suggests he took no ill effect from that and he should be hard to beat here with 54kg.
Behind him there are a number of chances, including LIDARI, CLOSING BELL, TUCANCHOO, PLOT THE COURSE and TASHBEEH.
Tip: Fabrizio
Race 9 - MSS Security Sprint 1200m
A race with plenty of chances! FAATINAH looks a bit of value in the race at $10 after splitting Our Boy Malachi and Lankan Rupee in the Caulfield Sprint last start. He carries 58.5kg here but loves the straight and gets Ryan Moore on board. If he's ridden for speed he will be there for a long way.
SIR BACCHUS was a moral beat two starts ago but bounced back with a huge win at the Valley last start. The pace will be on here and he will be at the back of the pack waiting to pounce. He's racing in terrific form and the straight could suit him so at $6 he's worth backing.
The two Snowden runners are worth keeping safe. RAVI looks ready to peak at her third run back from a spell and the form behind Sheidel has proven to be very strong. FLIPPANT had no luck first up when favourite at Caulfield. Can bounce back here at $18.
The chances don't stop there!
Tip: Sir Bacchus
Race 10 - The Hong Kong Jockey Club Stakes 1400m
Three main chances in this one and I think we can structure the bets to achieve a good result.
EGYPTIAN SYMBOL returned in impressive fashion first up in Sydney when winning the Group 3 Nivison. Has form behind the likes of Southern Legend and Takedown last prep. Will need luck going forward from barrier 17 but she should give a big sight.
SILENT SEDITION is the one I'm very keen on here after a huge run first up behind Sheidel, which has proven to be outstanding form. She won her last start over this distance by 1.75L in the Bendigo Guineas and from barrier 4 she maps to get the run of the race. Huge winning chance.
The value in the race is SHILLELAGH. We were on her last start when she was very well backed but got absolutely polaxed in the straight. She nearly got put through the rail and she was cruising, and that was a strong form race behind First Seal. I think this mare is very good - will need a good ride from Magic Man from barrier 14 but $10 looks a great price.
Happy to back both Silent Sedition and Shillelagh here with a saver on Egyptian Symbol.
Tip: Silent Sedition / Shillelagh EW (BEST VALUE)
Take note: Any of the tips in this article are simply the author’s opinion, so bet at your own risk and always gamble responsibly. Also be sure to check out the Before You Bet Twitter Page for all our thoughts in the lead up to bets! Happy punting!
