Welcome to our preview and horse racing betting tips for racing at Warwick Farm on Wednesday, June 12th.
There's seven races on today's card, with the track rated a Soft 6 and the rail in the true position.
We've previewed the entire meeting, with tips and comments for every race below.
Best Bet: Race 4 - (2) Sedgemoor
Best Value Bet: Race 6 - (10) Shangani Patrol
Provided she handles the wet track, (7) L'cosmo looks very hard to beat in the opener. She started a well-backed favourite on debut at Canterbury back in December, but failed badly. That was on a heavy track so that may have been an excuse. She was sent for a spell and resumed with a good effort behind Maddi Rocks at Canterbury three weeks ago. I think that's a pretty solid formline and definitely the best formline for this particular race. Of the raced brigade, she's the only horse that brings any decent form at metropolitan level. She was scratched from last Wednesday's meeting on wet ground, so it will be interesting to see if they line up today. (3) On Her Word rn well despite being caught wide throughout the race first up. Steps up to metro company but can run well again. (1) Light Exceed deserves respect from the Waterhouse/Bott stable, first up from a spell with two quiet trials under the belt. (5) Tereka the blowout.
Tricky race, I can make a case for about five of the eight runners. I'm going to give (5) Disruptor one more chance. He ran 2nd first up this prep behind Reloaded, which I think is reasonable form, and went on to run in the Champagne Classic and Sires' Produce in Brisbane, both at Group 2 level. They were much harder races than this and he wasn't disgraced. Drawn barrier 1 here on his home track with the blinkers going on for the first time, he should be going close. (2) Sneaking To Win should appreciate conditions, given he ran 2nd on debut at Canterbury behind Master Ash on Soft ground. He resumes from a lengthy spell but has two trials under the belt to ready him for today. If he reproduced his debut effort, he'd give this a shake. (3) Super Pins went down as the odds-on favourite on debut at Gosford. He'd trialled well leading into that and given his short SP, it could be worth sticking with him today at $8 if you backed him last start. (4) You're Next has been heavily supported in early betting, firming from $3.75 to $2.50. He had two starts back in January at Canterbury and ran 2nd on both occasions. He looks the likely leader today and has obvious claims. The value looks to be the second-string Snowden runner (8) Vici. He's been gelded during his spell and he's trialled significantly better this time around. There's no jockey listed yet so it remains to be seen if he does line up. $18 looks over the odds.
Only three of interest here. (2) California Salto comes into this ready to break through. She was luckless on debut at Kembla Grange and then ran 2nd over this track and distance last start, beaten 1.8L. She's against her own sex here and draws much better in barrier 5 compared to 13 last start. Hard to beat. I'll be siding with the Waterhouse/Bott runner (7) Mini Boom though. She finished 3rd on debut in a 1000m race at Gosford and was a drifter in the market that day. She's trialled well but only over shorter distances. I think with that run under the belt she'll be much better off. She's also the only obvious speed factor in the race so should be able to slide across and find the lead at her own leisure. The value is (10) Satin Rain. The Anthony Cummings stable is flying at the minute, with two winners and two 2nds from his last five runners. This filly was given a very quiet time of things in her only public trial; she looked to have plenty under the bonnet so don't be surprised to see a good showing on debut here.
I've landed with (2) Sedgemoor on top. He was beaten a nose first up despite a wide trip and followed that with a narrow victory over 1400m at this track last start. Steps up to 1600m now third up and even though he's tasked with 60kg, he looks the horse with the most upside. I think he'll also appreciate the bigger field size. (3) Lady Of Shallot was outclassed in some black-type races earlier this prep and was helped by a drop in class last start. She was first up off a six-week break for that run but should be fitter for this race today. There's some debate as to whether (7) Litzen is up to metro grade but she gets her chance today. She improved significantly from her first run to her second run this prep and comes into this third up, which is when she won her maiden last preparation.
(7) Embracer looks the horse to beat here but he's short enough at even money. He comes off a win at this track and distance last start where he led all the way. He jumps up to BM70 company today and draws the inside, so will look to lead once again. He's well and truly up to this class but just at the prices, I'd rather back a different horse. That horse is (5) Jack's Bar and he's a $6 chance. I think that's a decent each way price. The Kris Lees-trained gelding was luckless when finishing 6th over 1100m here last start. He drew the inside, jumped slowly, settled near the back of the field and didn't get much room late in the straight. Blake Shinn goes on today which is a big plus and the horse did win third up on wet ground last preparation. (4) Bare Naked Lady is racing consistently and will be thereabouts.
A few chances in this. (2) Loveisili has two wins from his past two starts and finds another winnable race today. He won over 2100m at Hawkesbury two starts back before dropping to 1900m at Canterbury last start and getting the job done narrowly. He goes up in weight again today and draws poorly in barrier 12, so he'll need to improve once again to win. But he has the capability of doing so. (8) Mrs Madrid drops back from Group 2 company in Brisbane, where she bumped into the likes of Kenedna and Sixties Groove. We've already seen the form out of that race franked and this is significantly easier. She went close in a similar race two starts ago at this track so from the good draw she really should be very competitive in this. The stable is going very well at present. (10) Shangani Patrol is an interesting runner at double figure odds and one I'll be having something on. He's had three runs back from a spell this time in and he showed great improvement last start. The horse has had two starts at this track for a win and a 0.3L 2nd, so clearly when this stable travels him to Sydney, he is ready to fire. Fourth up last prep, he went down by 0.1L, with a 4.75L gap back to the 3rd horse. I think he's the best value in the race at $11. (7) Stardome gets blinkers on for the first time.
Hardest race of the day. I think (3) Sweet Ava probably comes out of the best form race behind Reelem In Ruby and she wasn't far away in 3rd on that occasion. She's third up from a spell today so should be peaking and it's often a big plus backing leaders that are dropping in grade. (7) Unguarded is knocking on the door after two good recent efforts. Her only win was at this distance and she ran 2nd at her only start at Warwick Farm. (10) One Fire Beach and (5) Aperitif come out of the same race here two starts ago. On that effort, One Fire Beach would appear value here at $17 but the form seems rather sketchy from that race.
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