Welcome to our preview and horse racing betting tips for Breeders Classic Day at Warwick Farm on Saturday, February 10th.
We have a nine-race card on a Good 4 track with the rail in the True position. The card is headlined by the Group 2 Breeders Classic, but it looks a meeting stacked with quality.
We have betting tips and comments for every race on the card below. If you haven’t already, take a listen to Episode 21 of the Before You Bet Podcast and see which races at Caulfield and Warwick Farm Tim is keenest to bet into! Alternatively, you can find out Caulfield Racing Tips here.
Best Bet: Race 8 Show A Star
Best Value: Race 2 Forever Newyork
Keen to bet here. I backed (1) Satin Slipper on debut when she won the Gimcrack Stakes, which was the female equivalent of the race Performer won on debut. He resumed with a good win last week and looks a major Golden Slipper chance, and while Satin Slipper may not be as good as him, I think she’s good enough to take care of this field. Really liked the way she moved in her two recent trials leading into this, and the wide barrier may be a blessing as the inside at Warwick Farm can sometimes be off. Taking $3.60 with numerous promos around offering money back for 2nd and 3rd. (8) Oxford Tycoon finished alongside Satin Slipper in their Wyong trial and looks a big player on debut here. Another reason I’ve got Satin Slipper ahead is that Blake Shinn rode both these horses in their most recent trials and he elects to go with the Snowden filly. (3) Make ‘Em Cry and (5) Burbank both come out of the same Kembla Grange race and should be included at better odds.
TIP: (1) Satin Slipper
I really dislike getting involved in these staying races, particularly as I can never catch the right Chris Waller runner, but I’m hoping to turn that around here with (4) Xebec, who is ready to win. This horse was very heavily backed late in betting last start but was just caught in the worst part of the track at Randwick. He was forced to come down the middle on a day where the fence was on fire, so if everything is a bit fairer today then I expect him to win. The main concern is barrier 1 at Warwick Farm, but Waller himself said he’d be disappointed if he didn’t finish in the first two, and he rarely gives a push like that to a horse. Taking $4.60 and once again making use of the numerous promos around for 2nd and 3rd. (3) Beijing Board has won two on the trot and the wide barrier could be a blessing if the inside is off. (5) Zourkhan and (7) Chaterlard both get to 2400m for the first time this preparation which should bring about improvement.
TIP: (4) Xebec
Nothing really worth writing about here. (3) She Will Reign has a mortgage on this race as a multiple Group 1 winner taking on restricted company. She should well and truly belt these. (7) Limbo Soul is a horse worth following this preparation.
TIP: (3) She Will Reign
Wide open edition of the Highway Handicap here. (16) El Mo comes out of a reasonably strong edition of the race last start at Rosehill. His win at Goulburn prior to that was good and with 53kg and Brenton Avdulla on board here he should once again be a leading contender at $5.50. (12) Try A Lil Harder has returned from a 612-day spell in terrific order, winning both starts dominantly. This is a big step up on what she’s been facing and she does draw very wide, but she’s a mare in form and can go on with it. I think the value could be (2) Forever Newyork at $26. He’s got a good first up record and is undefeated at the distance. The concern I have is that I’ve never heard to the jockey on board. (3) Volpe, (4) Conniving and (6) Under The Thumb are all others worth consideration.
TIP: (16) El Mo / (2) Forever Newyork EW
Looks a nice race for (1) Sanctimonious here, who comes off a solid first up win at Moonee Valley, where he was absolutely backed off the map. Prior to that he ran well in a much better race than this at Randwick, so all things being equal, he’ll be very hard to beat. The wide barrier is no concern and the race doesn’t look particularly deep so I’m happy with $3.20. We may even get a better price come race-time. (14) Ballistica looks a good chance on debut for the strong Baker/Collett combination. Has won two trials leading into this and draws perfectly in barrier 3. (11) Snicki Minja comes off a 3L win at Doomben last start and shouldn’t be underestimated, while (3) Sunfighter has some claims after winning well on debut, and the blinkers are applied for the first time here.
TIP: (1) Sanctimonious
This is a great little race with some very good horses and I’m pretty keen to bet here. (6) Brave Song is the one I want to be with. I’ve backed him just about every start in his career and he’s come back in great style this preparation, winning both starts fairly comfortably. All three wins have come over this distance and I think the barrier draw will allow him to come to the best part of the straight. I have some queries over his main rivals’ ability over 1200m so the distance really looks to give him a great chance. Happy to back him at $4.60. (3) Siege Of Quebec looked gone for all money last start but rallied doggedly in the straight to come back and win. I think this horse has 1400-1600m written all over him, and probably even 2000m in time. The fact he got the job done over 1100m last start suggests he may just be very good. The step up in trip certainly helps him here but against some sharp three-year-old’s he may just be left flat-footed once again? I can’t quite believe (4) Kementari is $3 here. The horse has shown enormous potential but he’s so far failed to deliver on that. His recent trial was outstanding, but his only win has come over 1400m and 1200m is almost certainly short of his best. I’ll be taking him on today. (5) Assimilate might just be the horse in the race that’s gone under the radar. He had a very good debut campaign and if he returns a better horse first up here he’ll give this a very good shake at good odds.
TIP: (6) Brave Song
Really don’t like this as a betting race. (1) Prompt Response has only placed twice from five starts when first up from a spell, and we last saw her racing over 2000m. First up over 1200m might be a bit sharp for her. (3) Danish Twist has the ability to run a big race here, and may well do so, but she’s only placed twice from six starts when first up from a spell and is almost certain to need luck from barrier 1. (6) Memes is a better 1000m-1100m horse and the 1200m here may test her, but she won well first up and does come out of a very strong race last start. (7) Faraway Town was about $26 into $9 at this stage last week before starting $5.50 and winning. The fact she’s been $6.50 out to $9.50 is somewhat of a concern. If she could repeat that performance she’d be right in this. Which leaves me with the two Bjorn Baker mares on top. (4) Bonny O’Reilly has a terrific first up record and a terrific record at the distance. She trialled well behind Trapeze Artist and can definitely win this. But I’ve just landed on (2) Egyptian Symbol by default. She ran fairly last start when beaten 2.3L by Viddora, but that’s a very good form line to follow given Viddora is a genuine Group 1 sprinter. She’s third up from a spell and will get to the right part of the track from barrier 6, and Jason Collett has seemingly chosen to ride her rather than Bonny O’Reilly. $3.50 is about as low as I’d want to go but she goes on top.
TIP: (2) Egyptian Symbol
(4) Show A Star is possibly the best bet of the day here, because he doesn’t have to improve much to beat this lot. He’s had two starts for Bjorn Baker and both have been good, including a last-start win when leading all the way over 1500m at Rosehill. Steps up to 1600m now which is a distance he’s won at four times, and he drops to 53.5kg. Has a good third up record, should be peaking with a low weight and I’m expecting him to win this. (1) Supply And Demand’s best form would win this but he’s been a bit of a mixed bag since returning from WA injured. He has won his only start at this track and distance but with 61kg he’d want to be at his best to win this, and judging off last start, I’m not sure he is. (2) Testashadow drops from 2200m to 1600m here, which I don’t like when backing horses. (6) More To Gain looks a decent chance first up over 1600m. He’s got a terrific record at this distance but he’s never fired first up so I’m sceptical. (8) Nat King Cu could actually be the value in the race. He won first up over 1400m at this track and the horse he beat won at Canterbury last night. He’s got a good second up record, carries just 51.5kg and finds a very suitable race to be competitive in at double figure odds.
TIP: (4) Show A Star
Wide open race. (9) Fickle Folly was completely butchered last start when well-backed. She is a 1000m specialist and gets a huge jockey change here with Corey Brown taking over from Robert Thompson. Well weighted and can atone here at $4.60. The value could be (7) Hieroglyphics, though the early betting drift ($5 - $8) is a bit sketchy. The horse flies fresh with three wins and two placings from five starts when first up and if she’s fit enough here after 259 days off then she’ll run a good race. (2) Dal Cielo is more than capable of winning this. Has had a stack of trials leading into his first up run today and would need to be going well to win with 61kg, but he’s capable. (3) My Favourite is an interesting runner – he came to Australia last preparation after previously racing in Hong Kong, having two years off the track before resuming. He ran three very good races but has since been off a further two years. Clearly not the soundest horse, but I’d keep him safe. (10) Khalama has been well-backed early and (11) Grand Condor could be worth including at $34 first up with 50kg.
TIP: (9) Fickle Folly / (7) Hieroglyphics EW
3, 4, 5, 6
2, 3, 4, 6, 7
4, 6, 8
2, 3, 7, 9, 10, 11
$100 = 27.77%
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