This is a card that is incredibly underrated as the UFC have put together some fantastic stylistic matchups. Away from two big heavyweights trying to knock each other out in the main event there is also some fantastic prospects and wily veterans. This is the best card of betting propositions there has been for months so let’s dive into it below.
In a card full of great value this is the first where the market seems wrong. Overeem was looking fantastic in his last fight until the last 20 seconds when he was knocked out. Walt Harris is simply a one-dimensional power puncher who really hasn’t beaten anyone significant that warrants him being favourite. Other than his impressive knockout of Aleksei Oleinik his other notable wins are over Cyril Asker, Daniel Spitz and Sergey Spivak, which no offence to them but isn’t anything to write home about. Harris has to be given a chance of knocking out the ‘Reem’ but I just don’t see him doing it. If Overeem can keep this at range or keep it tight in the clinch in the early rounds, Harris’ gas tank won’t last the five rounds and Overeem should secure the win by either a late stoppage or decision.
This is a really tough fight for Barboza and one of the hardest they could make for him at 145 pounds. I personally don’t know how he is going to make 145 pounds and add in that we are in the middle of a pandemic it’s going to be a big ask of him and will likely deplete him a fair amount. He is also paired with Dan Ige who is a punishing top control fighter who is happy to stand in the pocket and trade before taking people down and putting it on them. Barboza has had trouble with pressure fighters before and that is exactly what Ige is. Add in the weight cut and Ige just should not be the underdog. While Barboza is dangerous at all times of the fight, Ige will likely wear on Barboza, probably earning himself a finish towards the end of the fight. He is also on a three-fight win streak, the latest of which he outstruck Bektic on route to a dominant decision victory.
Do not underestimate Matt Brown. While Baeza is 8-0, Matt Brown is consistently disrespected by the odds makers, and I believe he will be too good for the promising Miguel Baeza. Baeza was impressive on DWCS before earning his UFC contract and beating Hector Aldana in his UFC debut. Matt Brown often is too much for natural strikers especially when he utilises the Thai Clinch. This will a kill or be killed type fight but I’m backing Matt Brown to win and get the finish. He may be 39 but he has plenty of fight left in him.
Darren Elkins has lost his last three fights, but they were to Volkanovski, Lamas and Hall which is no knock on him at all. Darren Elkins has more UFC fights than Landwehr has fights and Landwehr lost bad in his UFC debut. While Landwehr looks like a future prospect, he has been thrown to the wolves here by being paired with Elkins. Elkins is a tough, experienced fighter who really should have the advantage wherever this fight goes.
Because of the value on the card I am putting together a multi with the other two selections I liked but didn’t make the cut for my main picks.
Anthony ‘Fluffy’ Hernandez ($1.90)
Anthony Hernandez has a perfect stylistic matchup against Kevin Holland who has been known to be too casual through fights which ultimately will cost him here. He really should have lost his last fight and Fluffy dominated Jun Yong Park before finally finding his neck and finishing him in his last appearance. I like the chances of Fluffy to find a choke in one of the multiple scrambles through the fight.
Mike Davis ($1.50)
This is Davis’ third time stepping into the Octagon and although like Chikadze he is a power puncher, he has the better gas tank and throws more volume than his counterpart, which will likely see him earn a wide decision victory. As long as he doesn’t get complacent and get caught with a Chikadze counter hook this is Davis’ fight to lose.
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