Former teammates Kamaru Usman and Gilbert Burns look to battle it out for Welterweight gold this weekend for UFC 258. Coming out of the Apex Centre in Las Vegas, Nevada, the UFC 258 card is sure to throw up some wild finishes and give us a bevvy of action to enjoy. While it may look devoid of names away from the main event, from a betting standpoint, the card is one of the best of the year. We will be previewing the main event below and throwing out a range of method of victory bets as well to help us pay for the Pay Per View card.
Let’s get right into it with our UFC 258 betting tips below!
The best fights don’t always have to be ones with bad blood as two former teammates face off in the main event in what will surely be a great fight. They were set to meet back in July last year but when Burns tested positive we saw Usman face Masvidal instead. As I said at the time, that was going to be a walkover for Usman which is exactly what it turned out to be. There isn’t much that needs to be said about Usman as he lets his fighting do the talking. He is undefeated in the UFC and has beaten some of the best to ever grace the Welterweight division in Tyron Woodley, Colby Covington, Rafael dos Anjos and Leon Edwards. He has excellent wrestling to go with some ever developing striking and is incredibly hard to take down, as backed up by only spending 2 seconds on his back in his UFC tenure. Usman is also incredibly strong making clinch exchanges dangerous for his opponents.
His opponent Burns has gone on a big run since his loss to Dan Hooker in 2018, winning six straight. Burns has power punches and some of the best jiu jitsu in the division which will mean Usman is in danger for as long as the fight goes. For Burns to win he will either need to get Usman on his back (a notoriously bad position for a wrestler) or get him to strike with him in extended exchanges. If you look back at Usman’s fight with Covington, he was in complete control when they exchanged one for one but when it came to extended combinations, Covington was getting the upper hand almost every time. If Usman exchanges like this against the explosive Gilbert Burns, he could see himself being caught and put away. If he uses his range and picks his shots it is hard to see a route to victory for Burns.
The X Factor in this fight is these fighters have sparred together on numerous occasions, meaning they know each other’s strengths and tendencies. Anyone who has sparred with teammates knows after a while you hit almost a stalemate as you both know each other’s "go to" moves. I definitely have to side with Usman as he ultimately can control this fight and get the win but there is no value in his price and too many questions and uncertainties to get me to think that $1.30 is worth taking. So I am staying out and looking to other fights where there is much better value.
TIP: No Bet
Kelvin Gastelum is on a three-fight losing streak but he still has the power and timing to knock out most fighters in the division. It is not that long ago he took Adesanya to the brink and troubled Till as well. Getting caught in an outrageous heel hook by Hermansson doesn’t mean he is done by any stretch. Gastelum is by far the better striker and has the wrestling to keep it on the feet. Heinisch will inevitably get increasingly desperate when he can’t get the fight to the ground and that is when Gastelum will land one on his chin. Back Gastelum to get a statement knockout win.
I cashed a submission at $6 in Viana’s last fight and there is no reason she can’t get another finish here. Viana has massive potential but makes repeated silly decisions that cost her. Nevertheless, she is still the better grappler and has the advantage on the feet. A stab at Viana to get another finish at $4 looks good value to me.
Green lost his UFC debut to Daniel Rodriguez who I have a big wrap on so that is nothing to be worried about. Rowe is making his UFC debut and doesn’t have a clear advantage on the ground and looks shaky on the feet. Green has a solid takedown defense and great power in his hands, a recipe for disaster for Rowe who looked very vulnerable in his Contender Series win. Expect a slug fest that ends in Rowe seeing stars.
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