Saturday Horse Racing: Chelmsford Stakes Preview

September 4th 2015, 10:34am, By: tim_tips

The feature race of the day comes to us from Randwick in Sydney with the running of the Group 2 Chelmsford Stakes. Our resident horse racing expert Tim is back once again to bring you some more great horse racing betting tips

Those that have followed Tim's work, either on Twitter or through his subscription service at Tim's Tips, will know that Tim brings excellent form and great experience in the industry. Tim will be providing previews and analysis of feature races, with regular articles each Saturday and throughout the spring racing season.

Tattersalls Club Chelmsford Stakes 1600m - WFA Group 2

Strange sort of race with 11 of the 16 runners belonging to Chris Waller and the majority of those being set for races much further down the track. There appears to be only 4 realistic winning chances here with Pornichet, Kermadec, Royal Descent and the returning Hartnell, but those 4 alone are tough to separate and set this race up to be an absolute cracker!

HARTNELL resumes from a spell following his disappointing failure as odds on favourite in the Sydney Cup. Last preparation was his first in Australia and he resumed with a blistering run behind Contributer in the Group 1 Chipping Norton before going on to eventually win the Group 1 BMW. He has had two trials leading into this and his latest trial was close to the best I've seen from any horse. Imported horses generally do improve in their 2nd campaign in Australia, so while the barrier might make things tough, he rates as the top pick here.

PORNICHET ran 2nd to Royal Descent two weeks ago and ran better than I expected he would first up from a spell. Comes into this fitter and can probably turn the tables on Royal Descent, but the barrier also makes things interesting. There looks to be a lack of pace in this race so he should definitely roll forward from out wide and look to either lead or settle in the first 4. Still think his best will come over 2000m but he will be thereabouts.

WHO SHOT THEBARMAN resumes after the narrowest of defeats in the Sydney Cup. Interestingly has a decent record over 1600m and only finished 1.5L behind Contributer first up last prep so should go well here. On track for the Melbourne Cup and think he can give that race a shake again this year!

BEATEN UP resumed when 4th behind Royal Descent two weeks ago. Actually beat Kermadec home on that occasion. Decent record 2nd up and he's drawn well here but is probably a level below the top 4 in the market. Expecting him to run well but probably just out of the placings.

MORIARTY comes into this 2nd up from a spell. Normally takes one or two more runs to hit his straps and even so is a level below the best horses in this race. Will probably go back from the wide draw and finish somewhere in midfield.

JUNOOB also comes into this 2nd up where he has placed once from 6 attempts. Never placed at this distance and will need a few more runs before he is competitive. 

GRAND MARSHAL resumes from a spell following his win in the Sydney Cup. Interestingly has a good record fresh and has won his only attempt over 1600m, and has placed in 4 of his 5 runs at Randwick. Heading towards the Caulfield and Melbourne Cups.

OPINION is first up here and needs a few runs and a soft track before he will be competitive.

HAWKSPUR is struggling for form. Generally improves 2nd up from a spell but hard to see him featuring here.

I'M IMPOSING is another of Waller's stayers first up from a spell. He will need the run but isn't the worst when fresh, and he has a win and a 2nd from two runs over this track and distance. Has had three trials leading into this, will settle towards the back from barrier 15 but wouldn't be surprised to see him run a nice race.

PRECEDENCE resumes and is on a path towards his 5th Melbourne Cup start! 2 placings from 14 starts when first up from a spell - don't expect him to show anything here.

COMPLACENT returned from nearly 2 years off the track last start but was badly hampered by a horse that broke down and took him completely off the track. Still likely to need a few runs given the length of his layoff. 

TREMEC has never placed from 7 attempts first up. Wait for him to get over 2400m+ on a wet track.

KERMADEC ran well first up over 1400m when finishing 4th behind Royal Descent, beaten by 2 lengths at the end. Much better suited 2nd up and stepping up to the 1600m. From 4 runs over this distance he has two wins, a 2nd and his desperately unlucky 4th in the Australian Guineas where he really should have won. Draws wide but tends to get back anyway - the lack of pace could be against him but I think he is a massive player here and the 1600m will suit him better than most. Got him equal top pick in this.

PREFERMENT resumes from a spell and is on a path towards the Melbourne Cup. Wait until he gets to 2000m and beyond before he starts to show anything.

ROYAL DESCENT finally broke through last start for a long awaited win when she saluted over 1400m first up from a spell, beating the likes of Pornichet and Kermadec. The race really was set up for her that day and she got the run of the race before finishing off strongly to win by 1.5L. Never missed a place over 1600m and has 3 wins and 9 placings from 14 runs at Randwick! Gets the weight advantage on the boys again but from barrier 8 she might not get as cozy a run as she did last start. Still a big chance but might have to settle for another placing.

Summary

I think the race definitely lies between HARTNELL and KERMADEC. You don't see many horses trial as good as Hartnell did in the lead up to this race and generally the imported horses improve in their 2nd preparation in Australia. Given how good he was first up last preparation behind Contributer I think he will be incredibly hard to beat here and wherever he goes throughout the Spring. In saying that, Kermadec is going to strip much fitter than he did 1st up and the 1600m is probably his pet distance, whereas Hartnell will appreciate a bit further. Both have drawn wide but given Kermadec normally races back it will likely be more of a problem for Hartnell to try and slot in somewhere. 

I cannot split the pair, and with the way the market is shaped I think we can either back Hartnell heavily at $3.40 and have a saver bet on Kermadec at $4.40, or back both and stand to win an equal amount regardless of which one wins.

I fancy those two over PORNICHET and ROYAL DESCENT. Pornichet will be best suited over 2000m and while I'm sure he will run a huge race here I think over 1600m the top two will be better. The lack of speed in the race could play into his hands though. Royal Descent got all the favours first up and although her record at the Randwick mile is outstanding, she might face a tougher task today. 

1st Hartnell ($3.50 at Sportsbet)
2nd Kermadec ($4.40 at William Hill)
3rd Royal Descent ($4.40 at Sportsbet)
4th Pornichet ($5.00 at Sportsbet)

 

Dato' Tan Chin Nam Stakes 1600m - WFA Group 2

Early Cox Plate favourite and potential WFA superstar CONTRIBUTER resumes here for Godolphin, and currently sits very short as the $1.80 favourite. Won all three of his starts during the Sydney Autumn, and quite dominantly too. Has a phenomenal first up record (5 wins from 6 starts) and he is tuned up for this assignment. He is the only genuine WFA Group 1 horse in the race, but I expect him to find a bit of trouble in the run given he maps to sit 3 or 4 pairs back on the rail. Will need luck.

THE CLEANER returns to his favourite track and he won this exact race last year. Showed that he has come back well when he went down by the barest margin to Mourinho first up, and he is much better suited stepping up to the 1600m here. He's undefeated over 1600m at Moonee Valley and he will once again be tough to run down.

MOURINHO is the one that represents the best value. He defeated The Cleaner first up and will only improve stepping out to the mile. He ran 2nd to The Cleaner by 3/4 of a length in this race last year, but travelled wide without cover for most of the race. I see him going forward from barrier 3 and I think he can get the better of The Cleaner. If Contributer has trouble getting off the rail, Mourinho might be off and gone. At $7.00/$2.00 I think we are getting a great price to back him EW, and with the specials around we can get money back for running 2nd if you just want to back him to win.

DIBAYANI ran really well first up behind The Cleaner and Mourinho last start. That was first up off a long break so he will have taken great benefit from that run and I'm expecting him to run a big race here; his best is still to come over 2400m. His price represents a bit of value.

BAGMAN, FORETELLER and BIG MEMORY are others that could be included as place chances.

Verdict: Backing MOURINHO each way at $7.00/$2.00.

 

Other selections

Randwick

Race 1 - Sasenkile EW
Race 3 - Cannyescent
Race 5 - Ball of Muscle
Race 8 - Start Wondering (best bet)

Moonee Valley

Race 1 - Kentucky Flyer
Race 4 - The United States
Race 5 - Strong Hand
Race 6 - Galaxy Pegasus EW

Morphettville

Race 5 - Lord Esprit

Belmont

Race 2 - Zarantz

 

Take note: Any of the tips in this article are simply the author’s opinion, so bet at your own risk and always gamble responsibly.  Also be sure to check out the Before You Bet Twitter Page for all our thoughts in the lead up to bets! Happy punting!

TIPS

Horse Racing Tips: Thursday, November 21st

Thursday is packed with horse racing action, with six provincial and country meetings across Australia! Luke Krahe has looked far and wide and come up with his best bets for Hawkesbury, Moe, Scone and Gatton here! read more

2019-20 NBA Betting Tips: Thursday 21st November

Massive 11 game slate in the NBA this Thursday, the 21st of November and we have a full preview and betting tips for some of the key games here including a big clash between the Celtics and Clippers read more

Australia vs Pakistan 2019-20: 1st Test Betting Tips

Australia will square off against Pakistan in the 1st Test match of the summer, starting on Thursday from the Gabba. We have a full preview and betting tips for the game courtesy of Jack Tobin here! read more

Horse Racing Tips: Wednesday, November 20th

The build up to Railway Stakes day in the West continues with some quality midweek racing throughout Australia today. We've scouted the form for the Sandown Lakeside, Rosehill and Ascot meetings today and picked out three best bets from each track here! read more

ARTICLES

Understanding Betfair Staking Plans

In the third instalment of our Betfair instructional series, we take a look at understanding staking plans and how they can be used to stay in control of your bank roll read more


Understanding the Betfair Markets

In our next strategy guide for the Betfair platform, we take a look at understanding how the Betfair markets work and what different types of backs and lays you can place with Betfair! read more


Understanding Back and Lay Betting on Betfair

Unlike your ‘normal’ betting agency where it’s you versus the Bookmaker, Betfair is a peer-to-peer wagering platform. Betfair allow you to both ‘back’ and ‘lay’ bets, which gives you complete control and a totally unique betting experience. View how full guide to backing and laying here read more


Major Harness Races in Australasia

There are approximately 90 Group 1 level harness races in Australia and New Zealand each year; we've highlighted some of most high profile races on the annual racing calendar here. read more


BLOGS

Boosted Odds For Melbourne Cup Punters

The Melbourne Cup has transformed from the race that stops the nation into the race that stops the world in recent years, and Palmerbet are giving punters more bang for their buck with boosted odds on all Melbourne Cup runners this Monday! read more


2019 Melbourne Cup Odds

The Melbourne Cup is known as the race that stops a nation, but is quickly becoming the race that stops the world! There's 42 horses left in contention for the 2019 Melbourne Cup, which will be held on the first Tuesday in November. Check out the latest betting odds for the race here! read more


Cox Plate Glory Awaits

Get fantastic odds of $4.50 for Te Akau Shark to finish in the top five in Saturday's Cox Plate thanks to Palmerbet. read more


The Luck of Playing the National Lottery

The lottery is one of the more fun ways to gamble, and who hasn't dreamt of one day striking it mega-rich by landing a jackpot! What are the odds of winning the lottery, and is there anything you can do to improve your odds? We take a look at the luck involved with playing the lottery! read more


PlayUp

Palmerbet