Welcome to our preview and horse racing betting tips for racing at Sandown Lakeside on Sunday, August 4th.
The track is rated a Soft 6 and the rail is in the true position.
Best Bet: Race 4 - (10) Pinyin to win
Best Value: Race 7 – (6) Lazy Bear
I am very keen on (1) Wells to start off Grand National day on a winning note for us. He shows up when it matters this horse, he is getting no younger at 12 years of age and his effort to win a third straight Mosstrooper Steeple at Pakenham was huge. He is the sentimental favourite to win again, his jumping career has had highlight after highlight, he handles all conditions and hopefully can get the job done again. It looks an open race on paper and he is no moral by any stretch, (5) Slowpoke Rodriguez was ok resuming and will be fitter for the run, (4) Lucky Tonight is a Kiwi who was good behind the top pick last time but hard to see him turning the tables. Should be a great spectacle!
(10) Pinyin has only missed a placing once in her 9-start career, that was at Flemington last time up the straight in a harder race than this. She had been running on well prior to that, winning two in a row earlier in her prep before a couple of solid placings at Sandown and Caulfield. She returns to the Lakeside track where she was victorious last time, she will be giving them a start but should be too strong late. (12) Gina’s Hope may well be woth a small bet to save on as she looks a threat, she is a winner at her only other second-up run and looks to have come back well. At Bendigo threes ago she was fresh over 1100m on the heavy track and flew home and although she never looked the winner, the gap to third was significant.
The feature of the day and what a cracking race it is shaping up to be. (1) Killarney Kid started at flip of the coin odds in the lead-up at Pakenham, he was well back in the run as is customary with him before improving into the race on the turn the last time but knuckled badly over the second last jump and didn’t finish. He bolted in at the Bool prior to that and am happy to forgive him last time. THe main opposition will come from the Kiwis. (3) Gobstopper was the winner of that race at Pakenham at his Australian debut, he will be making his own luck out in front. (2) Tallyho Twinkletoe is having his first run here in Oz, he bolted in two back to win his maiden steeple and then was outclassed on the flat last time. His record over the jumps is good but he may not be as strong on the flat as the top two.
A tough race to start the Quaddie but am very confident in the race and have narrowed it down to two. (6) Lazy Bear has been up for a long time but has been really good at his last couple. He sat on the speed to win at Geelong on the heavy track then went to the synthetic at Ballarat and had no luck when held-up to the furlong pole and ran on hard late when clear. He gets the goo gate and should settle behind the leaders with plenty to offer late. (3) Aroha Te Mana was super winning a similar race resuming, he was straight to the 1400m fresh and had to sit wide on the speed without cover throughout but was still too strong in the straight. He maps better here and should be on the speed, he has showed he can work so the spot outside the leader wouldn’t be the worst position for him. He has won second-up previously also.
(6) Think We’re Due will start a clear favourite in this and I expect that he will be well backed. He was only fair resuming then went to Moe and was tough but went down narrowly, a fortnight later he was at Sale up to the mile in this grade and bolted in. He sat up outside the speed before taking over in the straight and cruised in to win by almost 6 lengths. He does have Kah coming off for the claiming apprentice which is a little negative, but if they ride him like the best horse in the race and take luck out of it, he will be too good for these. He could start as short as even money in my opinion, that would still be worth taking!
A lot will depend on how the track is playing at this stage of the day, we know that it can be very favourable to be on the speed on both the hiilside and here on the lakeside on certain days. If that is the case, the (3) Smart Elissim looks the play. He was on the leaders back two starts ago at Caulfield before getting a rails run and bolting in, then was there again last time where he led and kicked hard into the straight only to be run down late. That was against his own age group and there was some smart opposition, if he can control the tempo from in front here, he will be very hard to run down. (4) Shot OF Irish will also be looking for the front and can be put in to as a chop-out, the Tasmanian visitor was good here on the outer track last time when he got a little further back in the run. I expect if these two are the first pair in running, they will not attack each other and may get away with a few cheap sectionals, making it hard for those back in the field to make ground.
(4) Mr Tipla should have the fitness edge over his main rival (9) La Tigeresa here. she is first-up and is yet to win at three fresh runs. Mr Tipla has been very consistent since resuming, he is a backmarker so he will need everything to go right. He was easy in the market two back on the Hillside rack but finished too well for the win, then was again on the outer track here last time when he again was good from the back but narrowly missed. The big field should ensure a genuine tempo, if he gets to each-way odds he looks a great win and place bet to nothing. (7) Sam’s Image looks the leader and will be hard to run down if it gets its own way in front, once again, assess how the track is playing to determine if that pattern is more favourable.
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