Welcome to our horse racing preview and betting tips for racing at Rosehill on Saturday, May 30th.
Sydney racing returns to Rosehill this Saturday, with the track currently rated a heavy 9. With minimal rain I would expect an upgrade before race day, but it won't be anything significant. The rail is out 6 metres, which generally plays fairly at Rosehill.
Rosehill Racing Tips: Saturday, May 30th
Best Bet: Race 1 - (1) Anders
Best Value: Race 3 - (4) Edison
Not often I'm too keen to bet into a two-year-old race that opens the program but I think this is the best bet of the day. (1) Anders should be winning this. He ran well on debut behind Peltzer at Kembla Grange, beaten 1.3L, and Peltzer remains undefeated having come out and won twice more in town since then. Anders further franked the form with a dominant win at Wyong last start, bolting up by 6.6L on soft ground. It looks a very good form line and the Maher/Eustace stable's two-year-olds have been flying this season. The stable have a good record at Rosehill, JMac goes straight on today and the horse is by Not A Single Doubt, so is bred to handle the wet conditions. Looks very hard to beat and $2.60 is a great bet. I think there's one danger, who also represents a bit of value, and that's (5) Supremo, on debut for John Thompson and Nash Rawiller. He was entered to run on Wednesday but they come here instead. He's trialled well leading into his debut and draws barrier 1 for a soft run. Provided he handles the heavy ground, I think he'll run a good race at double figure odds. (11) Proud Mia next best. Very happy to have a good bet at Anders here and also take the $11 for Supremo for a positive result if he does win.
A Class 2 Highway and as per usual with these races, it's a tough one to work out. (7) Art Cadeau should be able to take up a good position on speed, which is always a positive at Rosehill. He's had two runs back this prep and has been beaten a nose in both. First up he was unlucky at Moruya and then last start he led all the way bar the post, when nailed right on the line by Godolphin filly Chanting. That's not a bad form line and the horse that ran 3rd behind them has since come out and won. The heavy track is some query but he'll be on pace and hard to get past so $7.00 looks a decent each way price. (6) Leg Work bolted in by 3L+ two starts ago on a bog track at Wagga and then ran well in a similar race to this last start here at Rosehill. Looks a good chance again. James McDonald is booked to ride (9) Deepwood Vale for Paul Messara. She was given a pipe-opener first up at Scone when she settled last from the wide gate and didn't get a great deal go her way. Darlbeb has come out of that race and was unlucky not to win on Wednesday in town, so the form looks OK. Wide gate a problem again and the heavy track is an unknown but I would think she would be popular in the betting. (5) Izzy Looking Good is a wet tracker and is in good form, albeit in weaker races, while (2) Ready To Humble has obvious claims.
Tricky little race. (4) Edison returns as a gelding today and he couldn't have been strangled any harder in his recent trial at Warwick Farm. He was never let go at any stage and was kept in behind horses the entire straight. He had plenty more to give but they haven't bothered with another trial, instead sending him straight to the races today. Nash Rawiller is booked and he has a 24% strike rate when riding for Bjorn Baker this season. I think he'll run a big race at $8.00. (3) Mo's Crown started $5.50 behind Masked Crusader last start and had no luck, caught wide throughout. JMac goes on today which is a notable jockey change. (9) Sally's Day won well first up and then ran a good race behind the very talented Fituese last start. Draws well and should run well again. Hugh Bowman jumps off (7) Hulk to ride (8) Bring The Ransom, who won first up on heavy ground, so keep an eye on betting there. Chances don't end there.
(4) Trumbull is becoming a bit costly and a combination of poor barrier manners and bad luck have cost him in all three runs this prep. First up he sat five-wide the trip, second up he jumped slowly and went down very narrowly, and last start he bombed the start again and did a good job to get as close as he did. That was a tougher race than what he faces today, with Ranier and Brave Song both well accomplished horses. With any luck (and some good behaviour) he surely goes close to winning. The pivotal part for him is jumping on terms, if he can manage that then he really gets his chance. (2) Sure Knee gets JMac on replacing Glyn Schofield, about as big a jockey change as you can get in Sydney. Schofield is excellent at finding bad luck on this horse early in its preps, which was case in point first up when held up the majority of the straight. He did the same last prep before K McEvoy took over in Melbourne and she bolted in. Drops in grade here, JMac on, handles the wet and can go very close at $6.50. Those are the two I'm with, though I don't really have any knocks on the favourite (11) Soldier Of Love.
Also backing: (2) Sure Knee $6.50
Looks another very good race for (8) Fituese who has returned in sublime order. She bolted in by 2.8L first up at Kensington before another impressive win here at Rosehill last start, posting a 1.3L margin against her own sex in the Denise's Joy Stakes. She's now won five from seven, but as I've said all prep, she arguably should be undefeated. She takes on the boys today and she also tackles a heavy track for the first time in her career, but she looks to have a class edge and should be winning again.
This is probably the hardest race on the card. I'm in the corner of (13) Threeood at each way odds. She's flying this campaign. She won her first two, then had no luck third up when very well backed, and last start was beaten a nose by Blazing Miss. I think that's a decent form line and it was on a heavy track, so she'll handle today's conditions. Rachel King is back aboard and so long as they are able to make ground down the outside at Rosehill, I think she'll be competitive at double figure odds. (6) Miss Einstein was run down late by Opacity last week and backs up quickly this week. We know she handles the heavy ground but she'll need luck from barrier 2. (5) Statuesquely has trialled well and should find the front. That will make her tough to run down and the stable have a 25% strike rate here at Rosehill. (11) Bound To Win steps up in grade after saluting in midweek company last start. Chances don't end there.
Competitive field for the Lord Mayors Cup. No real knock on the favourite (18) Bottega who gets a run after some scratchings. He's been in good form and comes off a convincing win in BM78 company, though the race did pan out absolutely perfectly for him. He now steps up in grae to a Listed race against the older horses and he draws wide, so it's a completely different set of circumstances to what he faced last start. He can win but he looks short enough and there's a few in the race I think look value. (1) Sixties Groove might just find this one run too soon but he's certainly not without hope at $10. He ran well first up in the Scone Cup over a mile, beaten 3.3L at huge odds. He always needs his first up run but he has a good second up record, and further to that, he's won four of his five starts at the distance. Seems to handle wet ground OK and Hugh Bowman is a strong jockey booking. (8) The Lord Mayor must be included at $21. It would be apt for him to win the Lord Mayors Cup. He's got a phenomenal third up record, with three wins from four starts, so this is when he really starts to peak. He won his only start on heavy ground and has a good record at the track and distance. He looks a crazy price but does have to overcome a horror draw. (2) Yulong Prince has claims, as does the Scone Cup winner (4) Dr Drill. Something small on Sixties Groove and The Lord Mayor.
Value: (8) The Lord Mayor $21
Big field and a wide-open race. I think there's probably five horses to highlight. (1) Irish Songs comes off back-to-back wins in the bush, the latest of which was the Wagga Town Plate where he defeated Southern Lad on heavy ground. (2) Spencer didn't get much luck first up behind Masked Crusader. He won second up last prep in a similar race to this over 1400m here at Rosehill. Nash rode him that day and sticks with him here after riding him first up. The big query is his two failures on the heavy ground but that was much earlier in his career when he was racing poorly. He might be worth giving another go here at the big odds. (4) Ljungberg loves heavy ground so will relish the conditions here. He's yet to win at Rosehill but he did run 2nd at his only start at this track and distance. The track needs to be in the heavy range for him to win - if it gets upgraded to soft he probably isn't a winning chance. (8) Mr Dependable is progressive and he returns today for the first time since failing on heavy ground back in January. He trialled well enough to suggest he can be very competitive here and the question is whether he really doesn't handle the wet, or if he was just gassed and at the end of his preparation. I'm happy to stick with him today at $5.50 and find out the answer. (15) Bergen is bred to love the wet ground and his best would see him competitive here. I'll be with Mr Dependable on top here, but will be having something on Spencer at $21. If it remains heavy then a bet on Ljungberg is essential, however he won't stay $9.00 if the track is heavy come race time, so it might be worth taking the price and just hoping it's still heavy. You can form a book around those three at $5.50, $9.00 and $21.
(6) Adelong bounced back from her first up defeat to score dominantly at this track and distance last start. That took her career tally to four wins and two 2nds from six starts, and she should be open to further improvement. That would make her very hard to beat today, assuming she handles the heavy ground. Most interestingly, James McDonald has been forced to jump off her to ride another horse, but she loses nothing with Hugh Bowman taking over. She looks quite clearly the horse to beat. JMac jumps on (3) Superium first up for Joe Pride. He won first up last prep and he's had three trials to make sure he's ready to go first up here. JMac has ridden him in all three trials and he wasn't let off at all in his latest one, coasting to the line under a stranglehold. He obviously terrifies me. (4) Broken Arrows didn't have everything go her way behind Adelong first up and can improve. (1) Agent Pippa isn't hopeless if she can find the rail in front.
