Welcome to our horse racing preview and betting tips for racing at Rosehill on Saturday, September 26th.
The Group 1 Golden Rose headlines the program as we back up from Group 1 racing at the Valley on Friday night! The track is currently rated a good 4 with the rail in the true position. Along with the Group 1, we also have two Group 2s and two Group 3s on the card.
Find Tim Geers' preview and betting tips for the day's action below!
Best Bet: Race 4 – (3) Love Tap
Best Value: Race 6 – (8) Scarlet Dream
The Highway opens the card and this is anyone’s guess. (3) Cosmic Haze has improved with each run this preparation and comes into this third up. Third up last prep she ran 2nd but that was when she stepped up from 1500m to 2200m. They keep her at 1500m today and with some luck from barrier 13 she looks a decent chance at each way odds. (13) Sumdeel ran well first up at Gundagai which should be a nice pipe-opener for today. She can run well at double figure odds.
This is a Group 3 by name but it’s a pretty poor field assembled here. (5) Attorney has returned in good enough style to suggest he’ll be hard to beat today. He ran 2nd first up and then 4th behind Badoosh last start over 1800m. He steps up sharply to 2400m today which is the only concern, but he draws barrier 1 for a suck run and looks to be the improving horse in the race, whereas many of these have been going around every fortnight or are just plain out of form. If you operate on the basis of Waller in staying races, (2) Carzoff is the one that should be challenging. He comes out of two Group 3 races, both won by Mugatoo, and should find this significantly easier. He’s been struggling to get his head in front but this is the kind of race he could pop up in. (6) Exemplar comes up from Melbourne and is rock-hard fit, but I just wonder if his best racing is done on softer ground.
Going to give (14) She’s Ideel one more chance today. She really has no excuses here third up at 1900m. She was only about a head off them last start and she comes into today’s race undefeated from two prior starts when third up. Drops to 53.5kg and with any luck from the wide draw she should be right in the finish again. (9) Entente is another that looks suited third up from a spell. He didn’t get all that much luck last start and the winner of that race backed up and won again a week later. He draws tricky in 17 so it wouldn’t surprise to see them be aggressive early. (4) Masaff has had two runs back and now steps up in distance with JMac going on board, which looks a positive lead.
Even more keen on (3) Love Tap now after the scratching of Lion’s Roar, who looked to be his biggest danger. Not often do you see a horse come up as the even money favourite in a Group 3 at Rosehill having won three races at Nowra and Goulburn, but he couldn’t have been more impressive in what he’s done to date. He’s just got better with each start and looks to still be relatively unexposed. Draws barrier 1, Nash Rawiller keeps the ride after making the effort to ride him at Goulburn last start, the stable is going well and this race looks to lack genuine A-graders. Think he wins again and he’s my best bet of the day. (4) Bucharest jumped poorly and had to work early last start and that told in the straight, as he was the first horse beaten. He steps up from midweek grade to a G3 today but JMac sticks with him and I feel it’s worth forgiving him for that last-start failure. (5) Cadennabia next best.
(1) Wild Ruler returns from a spell today with James McDonald booked straight away for the Snowden stable. First up last prep he was beaten narrowly by Macroura and then went on to be competitive behind Rothfire, which obviously looks an elite formline. He’s trialled well leading into his return today and looks the one to beat. (10) Forbidden Love won first up and then ran well in the Furious Stakes last start behind Dame Giselle and Hungry Heart, who came out and ran the quinella again last weekend. That looks a reliable form reference and from barrier 3 she’s going to put herself on speed and get every chance once again. (8) Sixgun is going to be ridden further forward today and he comes into this having finished behind Anders and then Joviality in his past two starts. (2) Destination next best.
Very keen to butter up on (8) Scarlet Dream here and she’s my best value bet of the day. There is only one time to back her and that’s first up from a spell. She’s had four starts when first up for four 2nd placings. The margins of her defeats have been 0.1L, 0.2L, 0.1L and 0.1L. She should have won first up last prep in Melbourne, she gets good ground which is what she needs, Berry is booked for the Hawkes stable and with any luck from barrier 14, she looks at least a terrific place bet with $5.00 on offer (as much as $6.50 was bet during the week). I’m already on at $26/$6.50 so give her strength. (6) Looks Like Elvis has had no luck at all in his two runs back from a spell, going to the line untested first up behind Roheryn and Probabeel, before being stuck three-wide the trip behind Dreamforce last start. This is a much easier race and with any luck he goes close. (5) I Am Superman was impressive first up in Melbourne but does need to replicate that in Sydney. (12) Nudge next best. Will be having a 1x4 sort of bet on Scarlet Dream here, heavy on the place.
The day’s feature race is the Group 1 Golden Rose for the three-year-olds. (1) Rothfire couldn’t have been more impressive in the Run To The Rose a fortnight ago, chasing a hot speed set by Farnan and still proving way too strong for everything else in the race. That took his record to seven wins from eight starts and it’s hard to see anything he beat being able to turn the tables. He normally is the quickest horse out of the gates, so it will be interesting to see how this plays out, whether he can get across from his outside draw to lead and control the race, or whether something inside him kicks up. In any case, he’s versatile and just looks too good, with the only little query being whether that first up run flattened him. I think the huge improver here will be (2) King’s Legacy and he’s the clear value in the race at $17. He ran last in the Run To The Rose, but that’s about where I expected him to run. He’s showed he normally takes good improvement from his first run back, and he was always going to be run off his feet at 1200m, especially with the pace they set. Last prep he finished down the track in the Golden Slipper first up, and then came out second up and won the G1 Sires’ Produce over 1400m. He looks much better suited today, Bowman jumps back on and he’s the forgotten horse. (4) Ole Kirk has been good in his two runs back and no doubt this is his grand final. He’s crying out for 1400m. The interesting thing early in the race will be to see the tactics employed by (7) Peltzer. He was at his best when he could lead and control races from the front, but he’s been unable to do that so far this prep. With no Anders and Farnan in the race, could we see him kick up from barrier 2 to try and hold Rothfire out? I think it’s very possible.
(2) Haut Brion Her was outstanding first up off a long spell, winning the G2 Sheraco Stakes over 1200m here at Rosehill. She’s now had nine starts for six wins and three 2nds. You’d think she will only improve off that first up run given she was 49 weeks between races and we should see similar tactics from a wide draw again today. She looks very hard to beat again. (3) Positive Peace is the horse at big odds that can improve. She has an average first up record but is undefeated second up from a spell. She has three wins from five starts at the track, five wins from six starts at the distance, and should do no work from barrier 1. (8) Seasons hasn’t had any luck in her two runs back from a spell. She shouldn’t be held up from barrier 9 today so with clear air, she can be right in the finish. (6) Evalina and (7) Jen Rules not hopeless.
Surely, surely today is the day for (5) Masked Crusader. He was ridden cold behind Varda first up and then sat three-wide the trip last start when beaten a length by Fituese and Hilo. That looks a really strong form reference. Tommy Berry has been replaced by James McDonald, he draws well in barrier 2 and steps up to 1400m. This looks his race and he needs to win to justify the hype. (8) Rocha Clock has trialled well but gets Glen Boss on today as Bowman wouldn’t be able to make the weight. I’d prefer to back her next start when Bowman is back aboard but I expect her to run well. That looks the race.
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