Rosehill Racing: BMW & Vinery Stud Betting Tips

March 25th 2016, 11:19pm, By: tim_tips

The Championships is just one week away but we've got dual Group 1's at Rosehill Gardens this weekend with the running of the BMW and Vinery Stud Stakes - all of which I offer racing tips for.

The track received a bit of rain throughout the week which saw it rated a Soft 5 o Thursday night but that has since been upgraded to a Good 4 and with minimal rain forecast for Friday and Saturday the track should stay in the Good range.

We will have tips for every race, which include two Group 2's and four Group 3's in addition to a full runner-by-runner analysis of the two Group 1's.

Rosehill Racing Tips - Saturday, March 26th

Race 1

Competitive race to start with four main chances. Going to go with an eachway bet on Dragon Flyer at the $8 mark. Was very unlucky last start when he got held up and the winner of that race has since won again. Draws beautifully and has never missed a place at his third run back from a spell. Good each way chance. Federal, Roaring To Win and Rockolicious the obvious dangers.

Race 2

Interested in the price about Moqueen here who has its third start and looks suited stepping up to 1400m. Ran on strongly over 1100m on debut to finish half a length off Omei Sword, then worked home nicely again in a Group 2 last start over 1200m to finish a length off the winner. Up to 1400m looks ideal, draws the rail and the booking of Damien Oliver catches the eye. $8 looks a good price each way.

Race 3

Tough to oppose It's Somewhat here but with the speed in the race he might not get things as comfortable as he did last start and this is his first time at the 2000m so there are a few question marks. Definitely has the best form in the race but at the prices I'd prefer to be on Sir John Hawkwood who traditionally improves sharply at his 2nd run back from a spell which means he's due to improve on his last start win. Proven at 2000m and his price is more appealing than the Godolphin horse.

Race 4

Looks to be a race in two between Alberto Magic and Malaguerra. Going to stick with the Melbourne horse Malaguerra who looks to have come back in superb order and has plenty of upside. Draws the inside and looks hard to beat. If he isn't at his best Alberto Magic can certainly win.

Race 5

Happy to back both Old North and Man Of Choice here. Old North is only having his 6th career start but he was good last start without a lot of luck and he hit the line well. Will get a great run from barrier 4. Man Of Choice was equally as good in the same race and he placed in the Spring Champion Stakes behind Vanbrugh over 2000m last prep so should relish the step up in trip. He's a nice price at $7.50.

Race 6 - Vinery Stud Stakes 2000m - Group 1

JAMEKA: Think she is probably looking for 2400m but she stuck on pretty well to finish 3rd in the Rosehill Guineas last start which is a strong formline. Gets a great run from barrier 1 here and rates highly.

STAY WITH ME: Racing this prep like she is really looking for the 2000m so it will be interesting to see how much she impoves. Will go back from the wide barrier and has a big job to run them down.

VALLEY GIRL: New Zealand Group 1 winner over 2000m two starts ago and was only beaten half a length in the NZ Derby over 2400m last start. 3 weeks between runs here, draws well and has a strong jockey booking with Brett Prebble on board. Should go well.

HONESTA: Another one that is racing like she needs further and will appreciate stepping up to 2000m. Should be peaking at her third run back and could be value at $18.

RISQUE: New Zealand Group 1 winner over 1600m and then scored an impressive win over 1200m on her Australian debut. Ran well behind Palentino and Tarzino over 1600m last start which is strong form. Steps up to 2000m for the first time but draws to get every chance.

AMBIENCE: Won a Group 2 over 2000m convincingly last prep but is struggling this time in and looks up against it here.

SINGLE GAZE: Flying at the moment and recorded a good win over 1600m in Group 3 company last start. Blinkers come off in an attempt to get her to settle to run the 2000m for the first time. Place chance.

CAPELLA: Group 2 winner over 1600m in NZ and ran 4th in the NZ Derby over 2500m last start. Drawn well and should run well at double figure odds.

ASINARA: Ran 3rd in Group 3 company behind Single Gaze last start and finished off nicely. First go at 2000m but looks like she should get the trip. Tricky barrier and I prefer others.

SAILING BY: Terrific run first up behind Mahuta but was outclassed in the Australia Guineas last start. Could be over the odds at 30/1 but would need to improve considerably.

SELF ESTEEM: Racing consistently in benchmark grade but this is a huge step up and looks to be outclassed despite the strong combination of Team Snowden and Hugh Bowman.

BELIEVE: Won his first two starts and then measured up in Group 2 company last start in the Phar Lap. Will probably lead the field from barrier 11. The 2000m in this company might come a bit too soon for him.

CHABAUD: Went to Tasmania last start and won the Tasmanian Oaks in good fashion. Will go back from the wide barrier - proven at the distance but this is a step up in grade.

HEARTLINGS: Well beaten in the Group 3 Keith Nolan last start but pulled up with poor post race recovery. She would still need to improve on what she did before that though.

HAPPY HANNAH (E): Seems very short in the market to me on the back of a maiden win and a win in Benchmark 67 grade, despite them both being convincing. 2000m for the first time at her 4th start against Group 1 winners is a huge step up. Should run well but not sure she is quite ready.

LONELY ORPHAN (E): 4 wins from 6 starts in the country but looks outclassed here.

PEGGY'S COVE (E): Looks outclassed.

Summary

Tough race and one I'm not overly keen on getting involved in. Going to back the Hayes runners Risque and Stay With Me who both look strong chances.

I think the two Kiwi horses Valley Girl and Capella are right in this, while Jameka will get the run of the race from barrier 1 and comes out of a strong race. Honesta could be the improver.

Not overly confident here.

1st RISQUE
2nd STAY WITH ME
3rd VALLEY GIRL
4th JAMEKA

Race 7 - The BMW 2400m - Group 1

OUR IVANHOWE: Has come back very well this prep and looks to be crying out for 2400m now. Would be pretty keen on him but there were reports he has had a little hoof problem through the week. Still rates highly.

WHO SHOT THEBARMAN: Gets out to a distance where he should be very competitive. Can't get any fitter than what he is now and the last time he was at 2400m he won by 7 lengths. $8.50 isn't a bad price.

ALMOONQITH: Despite finishing last in the Australian Cup he finished off with the second fastest final 200m. His form over this distance is strong - he won the Geelong Cup over Dandino the last time he raced over 2400m. Draws well, good chance but concerning that he's never placed 3rd up from a spell.

GRAND MARSHALL: Actually going pretty well but will be better suited over 3200m in the Sydney Cup. There might be a few too slick for him over 2400m here.

ARAB DAWN: Very disappointing last start in the Canberra Cup where he failed to back up his impressive win in the Paramatta Cup. Good form behind the likes of Jack Hobbs over 2400m. Don't want to rule him out but wanted to see him perform better last start.

MONGOLIAN KHAN: Doesn't seem to be going as well this prep but he's on the quick back up here and steps up to 2400m which he remains undefeated at. Could be set to improve sharply.

PREFERMENT: Winner of the Australian Cup last start on protest. The stable have some query over the 2400m but I don't think it will be a problem and from barrier 4 he gets every chance to run it out strong. Comes into this third run back from a spell where he's never finished outside the top two. Deserved favourite.

STORM THE STARS: Brought over very strong form from the UK but has been a touch disappointing in his first two Australian starts. They are going to lead here and that could see him improve sharply. Might be better next prep.

RISING ROMANCE: Ran well in the Australian Cup as she normally does at this level. Draws barrier 1 here so she will land in the box seat and get the run of the race. Strong place chance but not sure if she can win it.

MONTAIGNE: Unbelievably still in his first preparation and steps up to the 2400m at WFA level after running 2nd to Tarzino in the Rosehill Guineas. Reports suggests he's flying on the track and he gets weight off every other horse but it's a tough ask to throw a 3YO into a WFA Group 1 over 2400m against these horses. Place chance.

Summary

Looks a very even race without any standouts. Preferment is the one to beat and is a deserved favourite. Despite some worries over the 2400m I think he'll get it comfortably and from barrier 4 he will get every chance to do so.

Our Ivanhowe, Who Shot Thebarman and Mongolian Khan will relish the step up to 2400m and that brings them right into it, while Almoonqith is going better than his form on paper suggests and he looks a value chance at double figure odds.

Rising Romance is always thereabouts, while Montaigne is going superbly but faces a big task in this grade as a 3YO.

1st PREFERMENT
2nd WHO SHOT THEBARMAN
3rd OUR IVANHOWE
4th RISING ROMANCE

Race 8

Going to go with Badawiya here at $5 after her ultra impressive win first up. Draws to get a perfect run from barrier 4 and I think she can go on with it. Solicit is obviously the one to beat - she is flying this prep but might not get it as easy out front from barrier 13. Zanbagh is also going very well and has a strong winning chance.

Race 9

Excess Knowledge was huge first up and his record second up is just as good. Needs luck from barrier 1 but he comes out of a strong race and rates a huge chance. Beaten Up, Rock Sturdy and Havana Cooler are the dangers and I give all of them a good chance.

_ _ _ 

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_ _ _ 

Take note: Any of the tips in this article are simply the author’s opinion, so bet at your own risk and always gamble responsibly.  Also be sure to check out the Before You Bet Twitter Page for all our thoughts in the lead up to bets! Happy punting!

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