Welcome to our horse racing preview and betting tips for racing at Royal Randwick on Saturday, May 23rd.
It's a pretty stock standard nine-race card in Sydney this week, but it's set to be run on a very wet track, with the surface currently rated a Heavy 9. The rail is out 6m.
Tim Geers has previewed every race on the card at Randwick below.
Best Bet: Race 4 - (8) New Arrangement
Best Value Bet: Race 9 - (6) MIsteed
Looks a two-horse race here between (2) Peltzer and (7) Overlord. Peltzer is two from two to start his career, winning on debut at Kembla Grange before leading all the way over 1200m here at Randwick, where he beat Overlord by 1.8L. It's important to consider the pattern of the day when these two met last start. Peltzer led, while Overlord settled last. The rail was red hot, and it was a smart ride by Bowman on Overlord, as he just stuck to the rail and made good ground on Peltzer, but that was the place to be all day. The horse Peltzer beat on debut was Anders, who came out and won by 6.6L at his next start, so that's a pretty good sign. He'll have to get across from barrier 11, and Overlord should get a nice run just off the speed from barrier 5, but I think Peltzer is still the horse to beat and I'm surprised he's not favourite. (1) Not An Option makes his stable debut for Richard and Michael Freedman, having previously been under the care of NZ trainer Tony Pike. He was last seen finishing 6th in the G1 Champagne Stakes behind King's Legacy. (8) Supremo has trialled well and shouldn't be underestimated at $17.
This race is anyone's guess. (4) Keen Power is undefeated from two career starts and resumes today with a trial under the belt. He draws well and should be able to hold a spot on speed with Tim Clark aboard. (3) Tejori won a similar race last start but that was over 1200m and he drops back to 1000m today which is some query. Drawn wide in a race with quite a bit of speed is another query so I might have to take him on here. (8) Tallis resumes and he won well first up last prep on heavy ground. He's got a good record at the distance and gets the tongue tie on for the first time today. (2) Glamour Cat started favourite in a similar Highway two starts ago and has never missed the top two from three starts on wet ground. Include him with McDonald booked.
I've looked at this race plenty of times and have still struggled to come up with something. I almost landed on the Waterhouse/Bott runner (5) Reinvest by default as it's probably got the most upside and is undefeated from two starts, and comes into this off a very strong SP profile, but it fell in last start and the horse it beat came to town and was beaten convincingly, so it's hardly an inspiring form line. (3) Foxborough goes on top because there's not much else. She comes into this off a 5.5L win in the Wagga Guineas on heavy ground, and prior to that she had raced well in some races in town, so she's up to winning a race like this. The main thing standing in my way was the fact John Sargent has had just two winners from 37 runners at Randwick this season. (4) Mocambo can be included as the value at $9.50. He started close enough to favourite last start and prior to that wasn't far off All Time Legend on heavy ground. He gets blinkers on for the first time today.
(8) New Arrangement really gets his chance to win here. He hasn't had a great deal of luck in any of his four starts in Australia and with clear running, he probably would have won last start. The genuine heavy ground is a slight query but that can be said about pleny of runners in this race. JMac jumps back aboard, he's drawn well, should be clear of traffic, and up to 2000m suits. This looks his race. (9) California Longbow has only been fair in his first two runs back from a spell but he's won two from three when third up and the blinkers come off today. The genuine heavy is again a query but at $15 he looks a bit of value. (10) Lord Gododdin is another to include at big odds. Bowman goes on for his third run back from a spell, he's won his only previous start on wet ground and his breeding suggests he'll handle the heavy ground. $17 is a good price.
(5) Southern Lad goes on top basically by default here. He was beaten as favourite first up in the Wagga Town Plate, and he probably was a bit unlucky on that occasion. He finds a very winnable race here, one that lacks a bit of depth. He handles the wet conditions, James McDonald takes over today and he should prove hard to beat. (3) Coruscate comes here in good form having been in Melbourne for his past three starts. He also handles the wet and there's no reason he can't run well again. (1) Passage Of Time may well need 1400m and could find 1100m too sharp first up, but he's a very good horse on his day and has a good record in the wet. (8) Murillo should be peaking.
(10) Miss Einstein looks a good bet here at $4.00. She's had two runs back from a spell now and she should have finished closer last start with a bit more luck. Her only run ona heavy track came at this stage of her last preparation when she won by 6.8L. If she were to reproduce that sort of effort, she'd be winning this. Stablemate (2) Bold And Wild was good winning first up at Warwick Farm over 1200m. He should be better suited stepping up to 1500m now and his only run on rain-affected ground was a 6.6L win. (4) Adana looks a knockout hope at big odds and should be included. He's got two wins and a 2nd from five starts on wet ground and he was only beaten 2.3L last start. Third up now, gets wet ground and looks to find a suitable race, though he doesn't win out of turn. (8) Opacity should come on from his first up run.
Keen on (2) Enfleurage here who was entered to run against Fituese last week but was scratched and saved for this instead. She won three of her five starts last prep, has trialled well leading into her first up run today and Bowman goes straight on. Should be very competitive. (3) Kylease was disappointing first up but might be worth giving another chance to. She started $6.00 first up behind Dirty Work and was well beaten, but she's actually never won first up so she might come on plenty from that. She beat (13) Switched last prep and meets her better at the weights here, yet Switched is $4.00 and Kylease is $9.00. (11) Longbottom has obvious claims. Competitive race!
This is a super competitive race. I'm going with another horse that doesn't win out of turn in (4) Dealmaker. He's building up to another win with some good runs in recent starts, beaten 0.3L and 0.1L in his last two starts. He's placed in eight of his 11 starts at the track, including three from three at this distance, and all of his career wins have been on wet ground. He hates sticking his neck out but he draws well, should get a good run and looks as if he should be somewhere thereabouts at the finish. (12) Man Of Peace is a bit of value at $13. He carries just 49kg here after running 3rd in the Wagga Town Plate first up, and that form could be franked through Southern Lad earlier in the day. He has a good record here at Randwick and handles the wet, so with no weight on his back, he can run well. I'd love to see them ride him aggressively and lead from the wide gate. (1) Redouble ran well in a strong race first up and JMac goes straight on but he has a very poor second up record.
(6) Misteed is a terrific each way bet here and the best value of the day in my opinion. She's had three runs back from a spell now and she ran 3rd behind Masked Crusader in her most recent one. He could be anything and I'd expect that form to really stand up. There's no Masked Crusader to worry about today. She's never missed a place at this track and distance and all three career wins have been on wet ground. She's only ever placed three times from 11 starts on good ground so she'll get things to suit here. $12/$3.80 available. (12) Jay Jay D'ar comes off a midweek win and should only keep improving. JMac goes on. Stablemate (13) Voila isn't hopeless either.
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