Welcome to our preview and horse racing betting tips for Randwick Guineas Day at Randwick on Saturday, March 10th.
We have a nine-race card on a track that’s currently rated a Soft 5. That could improve to a Good 4 come raceday. The rail is out 6m from the 1600m to the winning post, and out 4m for the remainder.
We have betting tips and comments for every race on the card below.
Best Bet: Race 4 #2 Performer
Best Value: Race 6 #6 Invincible Gem
Two I’ll be backing here. (6) The Pinnacle is suited here third up from a spell and up to the mile. She’s been close up in two starts back from a spell and gets Corey Brown back on board after Christian Reith took the ride last start. Juice out of the track is no problem and I suspect she will be hard to beat here at $3.25. (1) Oklahoma Girl should also appreciate juice in the track, and she looks suited third up and up to the mile, but she does need to improve. The inside barrier isn’t necessarily a good thing, especially with Hugh Bowman on at the moment (he rides poorly when Winx is around). But she does have a great record and is undefeated from two previous third up starts, so we’re getting a good enough price to have a nibble in my opinion. $9 available and could start longer. (4) Nettoyer is on the one-week back up and if she handles that she can be very competitive. Drops back in class today and wasn’t far away in a good field last start.
TIP: (6) The Pinnacle / (1) Oklahoma Girl EW
Two I really want to back here, and another one I’ll be keeping safe. I’m firmly with (6) I Am Excited who returned from a spell in excellent style with a good win over 1100m at Rosehill. She’s got a good second up record, draws ideally here and Kerrin McEvoy takes the ride – all positives. Locking in $3.75. I think the value is (7) Acqume who ran well first up behind She Will Reign before a very poor performane last time out. The blinkers go back on third up today and if she returned to how she ran first up she’ll go close in this at $19. (4) Jorda trialled well and definitely has the ability to win this. She actually beat I Am Excited last time we saw her, at the back end of last preparation down in Melbourne. Bowman goes on from a wide-ish draw which is fine, and she should be very competitive. Taking on (3) Houtzen.
TIP: (6) I Am Excited / (7) Acqume EW
(2) Estijaab is a very short-priced favourite, and deservedly so, but you couldn’t back her here at the price. She had a very tough run last start and there’s always the concern with how much that took out of her, given she’s only a two-year-old. I think she’ll win but can’t back her at $1.35. I suspect (3) Gongs will improve quite significantly on what we saw her do first up. (1) Outback Barbie showed plenty in her first campaign, with a 3rd placing behind Sunlight in the Magic Millions. Based on that she’ll be thereabouts. (5) Pure Elation is a filly I’m not sacking yet.
TIP: (2) Estijaab
Only one horse I’m interested in backing here and that’s the favourite (2) Performer, who I’ve had earmarked for the Slipper ever since he trialled before his debut. He’s done nothing to change my mind yet, and although his last start win was only by a small margin, I still think he’s the one to beat here. Hugh Bowman gave him a huge wrap during the week and I suspect we’ll see a much improved horse here on what we saw first up. (1) Ef Troop throws a bit of intrigue into the race. He was the horse that cannoned down half the field in the Magic Millions. He had to do way too much work that day so if he gets an easier time of it in front here he will certainly give Performer something to chase. (3) Prairie Fire ran well in the Blue Diamond from an unsuitable barrier. I love the barrier draw for him here, which will allow him to get to the outside and wind up on the big track. (13) Tchaikovsky was backed off the map on debut but ran poorly. Big odds today with the winkers going on first time. I wouldn’t sack him just yet based on the stable he’s in. (10) Aylmerton a knockout hope.
TIP: (2) Performer
Obviously (1) Redzel picks himself here and will be winning. I’m very excited to see (9) Viridine return to the track. He’s a colt I’ve got a lot of time for and he could be a serious Group 1 horse this preparation, or in the Spring. I highly doubt he’ll be able to roll Redzel first up here but he’s certainly one to keep an eye on going forward. Worth noting that (6) English has won at this corresponding meeting for the past three years straight.
TIP: (1) Redzel
(2) Clearly Innocent goes on top here after a luckless run first up in the G3 Southern Cross Stakes behind Kaepernick. He arguably should have won that after being flattened at the 300m. He’s got a good second up record and if the track is somehow still Soft, his chances are even better because he’s undefeated on wet ground. Bowman jumps off (5) Foxplay to ride him which tells you most of what you need to know – it’s rare he jumps off a Waller runner to ride another horse in a G1. Taking $5. Also backing the stablemate (6) Invincible Gem, who beat Le Romain first up last preparation over 1200m. She follows a similar path into this race with three trials, the latest of which she won, and she could really stamp herself in this race. I think $6.50 is a good price for her. (9) Tulip is an interesting runner coming up from Melbourne. She was very good when winning the Typhoon Tracy last start but Kerrin McEvoy jumps off her to ride Foxplay here which is a query. Happy to take on (7) Global Glamour.
TIP: (2) Clearly Innocent / (6) Invincible Gem EW
I think there’s only two chances here but there’s some others worth mentioning. (3) Kementari is clearly the one they all have to beat after his performance in the Hobartville Stakes, which backed up a phenomenal win first up. My only tiny concern for him is the mile, but the good barrier draw should really help him see it out. His biggest danger, and the only other winning chance in my opinion, is (10) D’Argento, who will certainly see out the mile, but will be coming from a long way back given he’s drawn barrier 14. His run in the Hobartville was outstanding, motoring home from well back in the field to be beaten a length on the line back in 3rd. He’s a very, very good horse, and the step up in distance may be what he needs to turn the tables on the Godolphin colt. (2) Trapeze Artist was convincingly beaten in the Hobartville but I don’t think leading is his go, and he also comes into this third up from a spell, which is when he produced a demolition job in the Golden Rose last prep. (5) Pierata ran very well in the Hobartville but draws poorly in barrier 1. (7) Peaceful State ran a huge race in the Australian Guineas last weekend and comes into this on the quick back-up, with blinkers applied for the first time. (12) Kaonic gets a step up in distance and blinkers for the first time – he’s always showed a lot but hasn’t lived up to expectations this prep. (14) Tangmere an absolute blowout. Backing Kementari, saving D’Argento.
TIP: (3) Kementari
Only two I’m really interested in here. The favourite (9) Sugar Bella has been dominant all prep, winning by more than 2L in all three of her starts. She’s won five of her six career starts, draws well here and carries a light weight, which makes her hard to beat, despite her stepping up considerably in class. Currently $3 and could start shorter. Her only danger for mine is (7) Slow Burn, who is first up from a spell. She’s always shown plenty. Should roll forward from barrier 13 to lead or at least be very handy, is undefeated first up from a spell and has the in-form Tim Clark on board. $6.50 looks a good price as I’ve got her the one to beat outside of Sugar Bella. (1) Ravi bolted in first up last prep in similar company. Has to shoulder top weight here with a couple of handy fillies down in the weights, so that’s the big concern.
TIP: (9) Sugar Bella / (7) Slow Burn EW
Tough race to finish. (8) Alward was the flashing light firs tup when he was absolutely murdered. He should have won without doubt, and he comes into this race second up at 2000m, which is a much more suitable distance for him. I don’t like the fact he is 1500m up to 2000m, especially after not being tested for a large part of his race first up, but he might just be better than all these horses, and Kerrin McEvoy takes over from Lee Magorrian, so he goes on top. Willing to give (3) Singing another go after he dropped out of the race with cardiac arrhythmia last start. He’s since trialled very well, and his form before that was outstanding. We’re getting double figure odds this time around and it’s make me sick if he won and I jumped off. Avdulla and Ford swap rides here, with Avdulla taking over on (7) Liapari, which indicates he’s the better chance from that stable. (1) Auvray the blowout.
TIP: (8) Alward / (3) Singing EW
1, 2, 6, 8, 9
2, 3, 7, 10
1, 4, 7, 8, 9
1, 3, 7, 8, 12
$100 = 20%
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