Welcome to our horse racing preview and betting tips for racing at Randwick on Saturday, August 1st.
The first NSW metro meeting of the new season takes place at headquarters this Saturday, with nine races at Randwick on what will be a very wet track. Last time we raced with the rail in the 9m position, riders were doing all they could to get as wide as possible, and I suspect it may be a similar case today.
Tim Geers has previewed every race on the card and picked out his tips and best bets below!
Best Bet: Race 3 – (7) Kordia
Best Value: Race 8 – (9) Etheridge
Very tricky start to the day. Interested in (4) Badoosh here but there are a few concerns, mainly barrier 1 on the heavy track and the fact he comes into this first up. I do like his form behind the likes of Vanna Girl in Brisbane though, and we saw this stable train a metro double in Sydney on Wednesday. (3) Syncline was my best bet on Wednesday but was scratched in favour of this. He should sit outside the leader from the gate and that will allow him to come wide in the straight, where the best ground is likely to be. He hasn’t put a foot wrong this prep so no surprise to see him go close again. (7) Bazooka looks set to peak third up from a spell but trainer David Payne hasn’t trained a single winner at Randwick in the past 12 months. (9) Fling will lead and with 49kg on her back will take plenty of catching.
Happy to stick with the favourite (15) Mr Magical in the Highway. He won well first up at Nowra and then ran 2nd in a similar race to this last start on the Kensington track. He was beaten just a nose on that occasion and he’s still only very lightly-raced so should have more room for improvement. Will take up a spot on speed, handles the wet ground and looks the one they all have to beat.
(7) Kordia is my best bet of the day and has been very well backed in the last 24 hours. He was around $2.20 yesterday but is already into $1.80 this morning. He won very well first up at Rosehill before putting in one of the better runs of the day in defeat last start. He settled at the back of the field and came wide in the straight on a day where it was impossible to make ground from back and wide. The race was also run at a slow tempo, so his effort to be beaten 1.7L was very good. He gets in with just 52kg today and looks very hard to beat. (4) Cinquedea is first up but it’s a horse I’m wary of from an in-form stable. It’s form behind the likes of Trumbull, Rocha Clock and She’s Ideel from last prep all stacks up. (1) Noble Boy can be forgiven for his run last start and can go well.
(10) Emanate goes on top here but again the query is barrier 1 on this track and the fact she’s first up from a spell. She’s only lightly-raced but her form behind Dirty Work at the end of last prep stands out for a race like this. She’s trialled well leading into her return today and she should be hard to beat if she finds the front early. (4) Karaja is another from the Dunn stable who comes to the races first up today. She didn’t come up last preparation but her form the prep prior to that was good. (5) Escaped won first up at Hawkesbury and can take the next step from that today. The horse he beat could only manage 4th at the midweeks at his next start, so there is some query over the strength of the form. Interesting to see how (6) Look Only measures up.
Happy to stick with (1) Zourhea here despite the fact she gives a 4kg weight swing to the horse she beat last start. Her run two starts back when 5th was actually very good, coming from last on a day where you had to be on speed to win. The margin says she was beaten 6L but the run had far more merit than that suggests. She proved that last start by completely defying the pattern of the day to win. It was a red-hot on speed day at Kensington and she was about the only runner to come from back in the field and wide in the straight to win. So I’ll stick with her here because I think she’s going very well. (8) Derbari was the horse she ran down last start and as mentioned, he gets a 4kg weight swing in his favour today. He deserves respect as the market is demonstrating.
Going to take on (2) Kiss The Bride who does look set to peak, but has also had his chance to win recently. JMac takes the ride for Bjorn Baker which is obviously a good hint but he’s short enough at $2.15. (5) Orcein doesn’t win out of turn but he’s racing particularly well at the moment and can go close again. He won three starts ago when very well backed to do so, then ran 2nd despite being caught three-wide the trip, and last start ran well again on a day where it was nearly impossible to win if you weren’t hard on the speed. Would rather take the $4.60 for him than the short quote for the favourite. Watch the market with (3) Night Of Power. One of these days he will be firm in the market and will be ridden on speed rather than being anchored out the back. That’s probably the day he’ll win.
Sticking with the in-form (2) Inanup here, who comes into this third up from a spell. He ran 2nd to Adelong first up and then won over 1200m at Rosehill last start. The drop back to 1100m is some query but he won third up last prep, loves the heavy ground, has race fitness on his side and looks hard to beat again. (4) Black Magnum was a hard luck story first up. He should have won. It was a day where you couldn’t leave the rail so the jockey tried to take a gap that wasn’t there and the horse got cut in half. With any luck he would have won but that’s the way they had to ride him due to the track bias on the day. He goes well in the wet and should find a more even track today so has to be included. (6) Grimoire looks the value first up from a spell. He won first up at Canterbury last prep and his only run on heavy ground was a win as well. (7) Sangria could just blow them away but the heavy track first up remains a little query.
(9) Etheridge is my best value bet of the day here at big odds. Forget she went around first up, she always needs that run to blow out the cobwebs. She’s only ever won once from six starts when first up, but she’s had three runs when second up and has never finished out of the top two. She’s got a win on heavy ground to her name and I’m expecting sharp improvement from her today. (10) Montefilia is also worth backing in my opinion. She came from last and came wide on a day where it was red hot on pace. It was a very good return and she clearly has plenty of talent given they ran her in the Baillieu last prep.
With (5) Steel Diamond to close out the day here. She keeps improving with every run. She strung two wins together at Kembla and Rosehill before running 3rd at Rosehill last start in the worst part of the track. Forgive her for that and give her another chance today because there’s a few suspects in this race. From barrier 13 she probably ends up in the best part of the track come race 9 on the card. (9) Charretera is a nailed on place bet but really struggles to get his head in front. He will run his usual honest race but he’s a bit short on the win line for my liking. (2) Julian Rock an interesting runner first up.
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