Saturday evening at Accor Stadium gives us one of the best games of NRL Round 25, with South Sydney hosting the Warriors in a matchup carrying major finals implications at both ends of the top eight. The Rabbitohs sit seventh and are trying to lock away their finals position, while New Zealand remain third and level on competition points with Penrith as they chase a top 2 finish and a home final.
Both teams therefore have plenty to play for, but I still lean toward the Warriors despite the disruption in their spine. Luke Metcalf is sidelined with a hamstring injury, Charnze Nicoll-Klokstad is suspended, and Andrew Webster has named Chanel Harris-Tavita at halfback alongside rookie Luke Hanson, who plays just his second NRL game. Taine Tuaupiki moves to fullback. South Sydney are far healthier than earlier in the season, however Latrell Mitchell will not take his place after being named on the extended bench, he has been ruled out.
That inexperienced Warriors halves combination keeps this from becoming a large bet, but their forward pack and season long profile still make Warriors -4.5 the side I want, with their advantage in the forwards and outside backs enough in my opinion.
Rabbitohs vs Warriors Prediction & Tips: 2026 NRL Round 25
Rabbitohs Building Momentum at the Right Time
South Sydney continued their late season surge with a convincing 22-6 victory over Canterbury last Friday, another crucial step toward securing a finals berth after a season that has contained more than its fair share of disruption. The Rabbitohs controlled the contest defensively, restricting the Bulldogs to a single try and again showing that Wayne Bennett has this side peaking at the right stage of the year.
Matt Dufty has been one of the success stories of South Sydney’s resurgence. Against Canterbury he produced 250 running metres, four tackle breaks, a try and a try assist, giving the Rabbitohs the type of support play and yardage they desperately needed during their injury riddled middle of the season.
The bigger improvement has come through the return of their forward leaders. Cameron Murray and David Fifita have both made an immediate impact since returning, and South Sydney look far more capable of sustaining pressure through the middle rather than asking Cody Walker to manufacture everything himself. Souths have won eight consecutive games at Accor Stadium, which makes this a far tougher road assignment for the Warriors than the ladder alone suggests.
The team news is also encouraging. Cody Walker and Jayden Sullivan remain the halves, Brandon Smith starts at hooker and Murray locks a pack featuring Junior Tatola, Keaon Koloamatangi and Fifita. Latrell Mitchell was named to return on the extended bench; however, he is being given one more week before his return next week.
South Sydney are dangerous enough to win this game. The question is whether they can contain a Warriors pack that remains close to full strength despite the disruption in the backline.
Warriors Keep Rolling Despite Injury Setbacks
The Warriors reinforced their premiership credentials last weekend with a dominant 40-6 victory over Brisbane at Suncorp Stadium, controlling the defending premiers from the opening exchanges and never allowing the Broncos into the contest.
That performance was particularly important because the Warriors have continued to absorb injuries without losing their underlying identity. Their season has been built around middle third dominance, strong yardage from their back three, and defensive consistency, and those areas remain intact even with Metcalf and Nicoll-Klokstad unavailable.
James Fisher-Harris and Mitch Barnett give New Zealand one of the best starting prop combinations in the competition, while Wayde Egan remains the crucial link at hooker. Kurt Capewell and Jacob Laban start on the edges, with Erin Clark at lock.
The concern is obvious: Harris-Tavita and Hanson are not the halves combination the Warriors expected to be taking into a major late season clash. Hanson has played only one game of first grade, while Harris-Tavita is being asked to take greater control of the side. That creates some uncertainty around their attacking execution, particularly if South Sydney win the field position battle.
However, the Warriors do not need their halves to dominate for 80 minutes. They need them to complete sets, kick to corners and allow the forward pack to control the tempo. Fisher-Harris, Barnett and Egan can do much of the heavy lifting structurally, while Tuaupiki, Dallin Watene-Zelezniak and Alofiana Khan-Pereira provide plenty of strike out wide.
New Zealand are also chasing something tangible. They sit level with Penrith and are desperate to secure a home final, so there is no danger of this becoming a flat late season road trip, with a top 2 finish well within reach.
Rabbitohs vs Warriors Recent History
The Warriors won last season’s meeting 36-30 at Accor Stadium, jumping to a large lead before South Sydney mounted a late comeback. Roger Tuivasa-Sheck’s 73rd-minute try eventually gave New Zealand enough breathing room to survive.
Recent results:
• 2025 Round 13: Warriors def Rabbitohs 36-30
• 2024 Round 5: Warriors def Rabbitohs 34-4
• 2023 Round 18: Rabbitohs def Warriors 28-6
• 2022 Round 21: Rabbitohs def Warriors 48-10
• 2022 Round 10: Rabbitohs def Warriors 32-30
Warriors Still the Better Side
There is enough uncertainty around New Zealand’s halves to stop me getting carried away here. Harris-Tavita and Hanson will be tested by a South Sydney side that has found confidence, plays well at Accor Stadium, and now has most of its forward pack back together. But the Warriors remain the better all round football team.
Their path to victory does not require Hanson to play like an established first grade half. New Zealand can win through Fisher-Harris, Barnett and Egan controlling the middle, forcing South Sydney to defend repeated yardage sets and allowing Harris-Tavita to play a simple game.
The Rabbitohs’ attack is dangerous enough that I do not expect this to be comfortable. Walker can create opportunities from nothing, Dufty is in strong form and South Sydney’s edges become far more dangerous when Murray is connecting through the middle.
The Warriors’ defensive structure is the difference for me. They have been more reliable across the full season, and their forward pack gives them a better chance of controlling field position when the game tightens.
At Warriors -4.5, I think there is just enough value. I would not be interested in chasing this number much higher because of the inexperienced halves pairing, and the desperation the Rabbitohs are sure to show.
Still, New Zealand are chasing a top 2 finish and have repeatedly found ways to win through disruption this season. They should be able to absorb the current injuries and get the job done.
Not a massive wager, but I’ll back the Warriors to win by more than a try.
Warriors (-4.5)
$1.95 (1.5 Units)
Rabbitohs vs Warriors Player Prop Bet
Johnson sits just two tries behind Tom Jenkins in the leading try scorers department, and has been in tremendous form, with seven over the past five games. Outside Tallis Duncan, AJ looks like scoring every time Souths go left.
A Johnston (2+ tries)
$4.50
Rabbitohs vs Warriors Same Game Multi
Leg 1: Warriors ML – See above best bet, I expect the Warriors to get the win, this is just with a little more margin for error.
Leg 2 A Johnston (2+ tries) – See above best prop bet.
Leg 3: A Khan-Pereira (1+ try) – The right edge is the weaker side defensively for the Rabbitohs, and AKP knows his way to the line.
Rabbitohs vs Warriors Better Odds & Match Info
Date: Saturday 22nd August
Location: Accor Stadium – Sydney Olympic Park
Time: 5:30pm AEST
Weather: Clear, 19 degrees
Odds: Rabbitohs ($2.50) vs Warriors ($1.55)
Line: Warriors (-5.5)
Points: 45.5
Where to Watch Rabbitohs vs Warriors
Watch the Rabbitohs vs Warriors clash live and ad free on Kayo Sports.
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