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NRL State of Origin 2024: Game 1 Preview & Betting Tips

June 4th 2024, 12:03pm, By: Scooby

State of Origin Betting Tips

The 2024 Origin season is here, and it begins on Wednesday night at Homebush with the Blues hosting the Maroons. With the second fixture in Melbourne, this is a crucial clash for the home team in establishing the upper hand in the series. The visitors will be aware of this and with a Game 3 showdown in Brisbane, they will know that a win here will go a long way to helping their cause. The action is always exhilarating, and this should be no different. Before You Bet is here to take a comprehensive look at the action ahead with the aim of finding you a winner or two to add to your viewing enjoyment. 

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2024 NRL State of Origin – Game 1 Preview & Betting Tips

New South Wales vs Queensland

Accor Stadium – Wednesday 5th June – 8:05pm (AEST)

Squads

New South Wales

1. James Tedesco 2. Brian To’o 3. Stephen Crichton 4. Jospeh-Aukuso Sua’ali’i 5. Zac Lomax 6. Jarome Luai 7. Nicholas Hynes 8. Jake Trbojevic 9. Reece Robson 10. Payne Haas 11. Liam Martin 12. Angus Crichton 13. Cameron McInnes Interchange: 14. Isaah Yeo 15. Haumole Olakau’atu 16. Spencer Leniu 17. Hudson Young Reserves: 18. Matt Burton 19. Luke Keary

Queensland

1. Reece Walsh 2. Xavier Coates 3. Valentine Holmes 4. Hamiso Tabuai-Fidow 5. Murray Taulagi 6. Tom Dearden 7. Daly Cherry-Evans 8. Reuben Cotter 9. Ben Hunt 10. Lindsay Collins 11. Jaydn Su’A 12. Jeremiah Nanai 13. Patrick Carrigan Interchange: 14. Harry Grant 15. Moeaki Fotuaika 16. J’maine Hopgood 17. Selwyn Cobbo Reserves: 18. Felise Kaufusi 19. Brendan Pikura

Preview & Prediction

After 2 consecutive series losses, the Blues parted ways with coach Brad Fitler and chose to hire Michael Maguire. A new coach has delivered a change in preparation, staff and players. For fans of New South Wales, they will be hoping that Maguire can turn the tables on the Maroons and deliver a series victory. 

Meanwhile, the Maroons have been quietly going about their preparation and plotting the downfall of their opponents. Despite injuries to key players on both sides, the series has not been robbed of quality; this is the pinnacle of rugby league for a reason and every player will be out to deliver a peak performance. 

Despite a home ground advantage to start the season, momentum is certainly with the Maroons, and this is slightly reflected in the odds also. Both teams are at opposite ends of the spectrum too; with the Blues a new-look outfit, the Maroons have combinations which are tried and tested. The stage is set for a terrific contest with many questions to be answered after 80 gruelling minutes of rugby league action. 

Breaking news on Sunday has seen Tedesco rushed into the squad to replace Dylan Edwards; he has a point to prove now that Edwards was originally named over him. He is a quality player, and this set of circumstances may bring the best out in him. The team named by the Maroons is stronger on paper; this has seen them listed as slight favourites ($2 vs $1.80) with a 1.5 line on offer. 

The uncertainty around the Blues and how they will ‘click’ together means they are shorter than they probably deserve. The concerns around their squad centres around the absence of a reserve hooker/outside back/utility. Cam McInnes will likely fill this role at some stage and, while he is a quality option, having Koroisau in the team would’ve provided them with a different edge. The Maroons have that with Grant coming into the game at some stage. Elsewhere, the experience which comes from having DCE in the team at halfback will offer stability; he is combines well with others to lead his team around. With a point to prove, the Blues will put themselves in a winning position and are capable of saluting, but it will take a monumental and complete 80-minute effort. 

There is a lean towards the Maroons winning this contest but avoiding that option altogether in terms of finding a winner. History shows that Game 1 matches are always tight; since 2011 the average margin of victory is 9.7 points, with the average for games in Sydney being 4.3 points. Use this to your advantage and invest accordingly. 

Either Team 8.5 or less

$1.95 (2 Units)

 

Origin Game 1 Prop Bets

Our NRL expert, Scooby provides his best prop bets for Origin Game 1 below; however, Picklebet are running a ton of promos for Game 1 of the State of Origin, including a mixture of combo multis and Same Game Multi’s. If any of the below bets tickle your fancy, then make sure to head over to Picklebet and join the fun!

1. Any 2+ Of Xavier Coates, Murray Taulagi Or Reece Walsh To Score A Try $3.00 at Picklebet
2. Either Team To Win 13+ $3.00 at Picklebet
3. Any 2+ Of Zac Lomax, Brian To'o Or Stephen Crichton To Score A Try $3.00 at Picklebet
4. Either Brian To'o Or Xavier Coates To Score The FIRST Try $5.00 at Picklebet
5. Either Reece Walsh Or James Tedesco To Score The FIRST Try $7.00 at Picklebet
6. Either Stephen Crichton Or Valentine Holmes To Score The FIRST Try $8.00 at Picklebet
7. Reece Walsh, Hamiso Tabuai-Fidow AND James Tedesco All To Score A Try $20.00 at Picklebet

Picklebet

 

First Try Scorer/Try Scorer

Since 2011, a forward has only scored once in the series opener (Cordner, NSW, 2016). Wingers have scored 4 times, centres 4 times (4 of the past 5 years to be exact), halves twice and a fullback once. It is a good sign for the eventual winner too, with 7 of the teams who have scored first going on to win the match. This could be useful for punters who are interested in a live bet. 

New South Wales

Best Bet = Stephen Crichton ($17 at Picklebet) – Crichton has crossed as many times as he would’ve liked this season for the Bulldogs but a change in the quality of play makers delivering him early ball will make a difference. The rejoining with Luai will also provide him with an edge. 

Value = Angus Crichton ($19 at Picklebet) – Crichton (the forward one) has crossed several times this season for the Roosters. His ability to hit a good line, chase a kick or contest one in the air makes him an attacking threat in numerous positions on the field. 

Queensland

Best Bet = Reece Walsh ($13 at Dabble) – Walsh has been in dynamic form for the Broncos. He takes the ball to the line with confidence and isn’t afraid of targeting the best defenders in the competition. Also great with his support game, he will trouble the Blues all night. 

Value = Hamiso Tabuai-Fidow ($15 at Ladbrokes) – The Hammer has an amazing record this season of 8 tries in just 7 matches. Moving from fullback to centre will mean that he is limited to attack just one side of the field but that has hardly worried him in the past; he crossed for the first try in Game 1 last year. 

 

Man of the Match

This is a betting market which comes with a warning; usually, the best player doesn’t always win the award and controversy reigns once it is named. This is a market which you would be encouraged to stay away from or invest no more than 0.5 units. However, we will provide an insight if you wish to have an investment. 

In the 13 Game 1 Origin matches since 2011, players from the spine (1, 6, 7 or 9) have a 54% success rate; interestingly, a forward (Cotter – QLD) won for the first-time last year since 2017. Look at the key players for each side. There is greater value on players who may not play in the spine but will be influential to the outcome of the contest; given this should be a tight contest, perhaps a middle forward will be influential to the outcome of this game. The obvious selections are the shorter ones, with those players needing to have strong games if their teams are to win. 

New South Wales

Best Bet = James Tedesco ($10 at Neds) – He has been rushed back into the NSW team and is such a quality player, that he will be out to prove a point in this match. If the Blues are to win, he will have a large impact on the result.

Value = Jake Trbojevic ($34 at Dabble) – The NSW captain is likely to play long minutes and will be effective on both sides of the ball. His defence will be crucial in the middle, leading with action. In attack, Trbojevic offers another dimension with second phase play and will provide options to the Blues if they are able to create a fast ruck speed. 

Queensland

Best Bet = Patrick Carrigan ($12 at BlueBet) – A defensive style contest will mean that Carrigan’s influence will be critical to the Maroons. He is a natural leader and is a strong chance of being the next Maroons captain. The only limiting factor to him playing well is that he may not play the full contest. 

Value = Reuben Cotter ($21 at BlueBet) – Similar to the choice above, Cotter will be front and centre on either side of the ball. He has an engine which means he is involved as much as possible, while being just as effective in attack as he is in defence. 

 

Total Points/Margin

The average points scored in Game 1 Origin fixtures since 2011 is 29.5 points. They are traditionally tight, defensive orientated encounters. There has been only two times since 2011 that games were won by a 13+ margin also (2017 & 2021 – both won by NSW). This game look headed for the same outcome as each team doesn’t take the usual number of risks that would come at an NRL level. You need to factor this into your decision making prior to an investment. 

Total Points – Under 36.5 ($1.90 at QuestBet) – Use in a SGM or other sports multi 

Margin – QLD 1-12 ($3 at QuestBet) 1 unit or include in a SGM

 

Good luck!

 

Scooby is our NRL guru with over ten years experience writing about rugby league with Before You Bet and previously at The Profits. His background is in playing and coaching but he's enjoyed the switch to share his knowledge through his articles, as well as sharing his thoughts on Twitter.

Scooby's strength is assessing the overall team - what they offer across the field in a match and how the ethos of a club contributes to their success. Momentum also has a major impact on sports, and Scooby likes to explore this, while underpinning his judgement against a solid basis of statistical analysis. When combined with the aforementioned points, it combines for a holistic approach towards betting on rugby league.

Other sports he enjoys include Cricket, Horse Racing and NFL. There is a reason why Scooby ‘clicked’ with BYB from Day 1 - he loves his sport as much as we do.

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