NRL Prelim Finals: Panthers v Rabbitohs Preview & Betting Tips

October 16th 2020, 8:16pm, By: Scooby

NRL Prelim Finals Betting Tips

The Panthers will take on the Rabbitohs in the second NRL preliminary final on Saturday night from 7.50pm! As usual, we have you covered with a full preview and betting tips for the clash from our Rugby League expert, Scooby!

Penrith Panthers v South Sydney Rabbitohs

Stadium Australia, Saturday 7.50pm (AEDT)

The Panthers headed into the Finals after wrapping up the Minor Premiership and faced a tough test in Week 1 against the Roosters. It was a real acid test for this team as questions were being asked about how mature they were with so many young players within their squad. Those questions were certainly answer following their 29-28 victory, coming back from a 10-nil deficit after just 10 minutes. They scored 28-unanswered points from the 15th minute until the 63rd and looked very dangerous. A fightback from the Roosters narrowed the gap, as did a late try but the composure of Clearly assisted in their 1-point victory. The Panthers were superb with the ball; they completed at 95% with just 49% possession and controlled the speed of the match. They didn’t have things all their own way though; their opponents were superior in just about every other area including metres, line breaks and tackle breaks. They also had 42 missed tackles, ensuring that defence would’ve been a focus last week.

The Rabbitohs head into this game on a 3-game winning streak; most recently, they defeated the Eels 38-24 in exciting fashion. They too found themselves behind after jumping to an 8-nil lead, with the Eels finishing the better of the two sides to lead 18-8 at HT. they scored 24-unanswered points in 25 minutes to completely turn the game on its head and all but decide the outcome. While it took some luck, the Rabbitohs performed well in most areas. With 55% possession, they ran for more metre, more post contact metres, had more line breaks and tackle breaks compared to their opponents. They also had fewer missed tackles (22) but will want to improve on their 71% completion rate that could be used against them by their opponents. Both sides have proven themselves as dangerous attacking teams and this game promises to be a very fast and exciting contest.

The Stats

This game promises to be an exciting one and the statistics support this; the Panthers average 3.8 try assists per game (equal 1st) and the Rabbitohs are just behind them with 3.4 (4th). The result switches around when it comes to line breaks, but only just, with the Rabbitohs averaging 5.1 per game (3rd) ahead of the Panthers 5.0 (4th). When it comes to running metres, the Panthers average 1,888.7m per game (1st) and 660.3pcm (1st) and the Rabbitohs 1,769.8 (4th) and 606.5m (6th). Expect each team to attempt to dominate the middle as much as possible to gain an advantage. 

Of the 32 times these two sides have played one another, the Panthers have the slight edge, winning 17 matches. Going on their last 10 matches (dating back to Round 6 2014), the result is split 5-a-piece and with a 60/40 split in favour of the home team. The average winning margin in the 10-game period is 8.2 points, with 7 out of the 10 margins being by 8 points or less. As for wins at this venue, being their home ground, the Rabbitohs have a 56% winning record compared to the Panthers 46%. This is also the first time these two teams have met in the NRL Finals.

Verdict

Much like the first Preliminary Final this weekend, it is so surprising to see the difference between these two sides in betting markets. The Rabbitohs ($2.75) are arguably the form team of the competition and while they have issues they need to improve upon (errors and right side defence), they have a form line running through the Roosters which suggests this game will be a close one. The Panthers are also without Kikau, which is sure to limit the potential attacking threat on their left edge. The game will not solely be won or lost in this area.

When you look at influencing factors, these two sides are similar. They both have (confident) ball running halves, play with speed generated by their hooker and have a fullback that adds an impact that has been somewhat overlooked this season. A win to either side would not surprise, which make the +6.5 line to the Rabbitohs ($1.85) worth some consideration. Rather than invest there and also taking into account the statistics above, the recommendation is to have either side winning this match by 8-points or less. For what it’s worth, the defensive errors that the Rabbitohs are prone to could be too big or a hurdle to get over in the head-to-head stakes.


TIPS

Champions League 2020-21: Matchday 2 Betting Tips

Big week coming up in the Champions League as the group stage continues with the 2nd round of games. There were some thrilling matches in week one and we are hoping that continues as we provide some of our best bets for the key matchups this week here read more

ESports Betting Tips: Monday, October 26th

Our Esports betting guru Michael Lee is back for his best bets from around the Esports world for Monday, October 26th. Today, we head to the BLAST Premier: Fall 2020, as well as the DOTA Summit Online 13: Americas. read more

NRL Grand Final: Panthers v Storm Preview & Betting Tips

What a season it's been so far in the NRL and now just two teams remain! The Penrith Panthers will square off against the Melbourne Storm in the NRL Grand Final this Sunday night and as usual, Scooby has you covered with a full preview and betting tips for the clash here read more

2020 Cox Plate Preview & Betting Tips

The 100th running of the G1 Cox Plate takes place this Saturday at Moonee Valley, with a star-studded capacity field of 14 lining up over the famous 2040m. Check out our preview and tips for the feature race here! read more

ARTICLES

Best Australian Sports Betting Sites

The best Australian sports betting sites ensure safe and successful online betting for punters. Here's our list of the best betting options in Australia. read more


Performance Ratings & Pricing with Julian Vallance with Sportsbet

Julian Vallance from Sportsbet takes us through some of the key factors which he uses with pricing upcoming horse races such as performance ratings. Check out his video from Sportsbet here. read more


What is Over-Round and How do Sportsbooks Make Money?

Over-Round is an important concept for both punters and sportsbooks. It's how Australian sportsbooks make money! All punters should understand over-round, how to spot it, and how to find better value on the Betfair Exchange. read more


Betfair Commissions and Charges

Ever wondered why you can get such great odds at Betfair in comparison to other online bookmakers? We break down why that is the case and why Betfair isn't just for professional punters here read more


BLOGS

Caulfield Hoodoo a Plus for Camelot

History tells punters that they should not be discouraged by the defeat of Russian Camelot in the Caulfield Stakes, and if you like his chances to bounce back in the Cox Plate then Palmerbet have a brilliant price for you. read more


Palmerbet's 40 Days of Value is Here!

The weather’s getting warmer and the horse racing schedule is heating up – that means Spring is here. Palmerbet is doubling down on the best time of the year with ‘40 Days of Value’, spring-loaded with bigger odds, hot tips and other offers to make it a Spring Carnival season to remember for punters. read more


2020 AFL Brownlow Medal Votes Round 18

That's it! The 2020 AFL regular season has come to an end and Brisbane's Lachie Neale has surely done enough to secure the 2020 Brownlow Medal with another brilliant game in Round 18. Let's take a closer look at our Round 18 Brownlow Medal vote predictions! read more


2020 AFL Brownlow Medal Votes Round 17

There's just one more round to go in the 2020 AFL season. Round 17 has completed and the Brownlow votes are locked away. It was a quiet round for those at the top of our Brownlow leaderboard, but there were a couple of stand out performances this weekend. Let's take a closer look at each match with our Round 17 Brownlow vote predictions. read more


PlayUp

BetDeluxe