The concluding game of the NRLW State of Origin series will take place on Wednesday night. With their victory in Game 2, the Blues won the series to continue their dominance over the Maroons. A ‘dead rubber’ in Game 3 will hardly excite fans but there is still plenty to play for. Aside from pride, there are spots on the line for the Jillaroos at the end of the season and other players will be desperate to build form ahead of the NRLW season. Another high-quality and exciting game is expected and Before You Bet is here to guide you through the contest.
Check out our full preview and tips for Game 3 of the State of Origin below and if you’re keen to play along with our tips, consider joining UpYaGo!
2026 NRLW State of Origin Game 3 Predictions & Tips
Letting themselves down
It has been a challenging series for the Maroons and performances like the one in Game 2 is hardly going to assist them in upsetting their opponents. Again spirited, they were let down by their execution. With just 46% possession, they completed at a horrendous rate of 57%. Despite averaging 8.9m per carry and having the same total line breaks as their opponents (3), they were unable to generate enough momentum to pressure the Blues when it mattered. The fact that they only lost by 4 points highlights how close they are to their opponents. Their attitude in defence was great also, missing just 20 tackles over 70 minutes. If they can fix their execution, they could be a chance of causing an upset.
Doing enough and allowing their quality to shine
The formula for the Blues has been simple throughout the series: limit their opponents scoring opportunities and taking their chances. They were again strong in pressuring the Maroons where it mattered. Their chances were aided by the fact that their opponents had a poor completion rate; they weren’t significantly better (64%) but compared to the Maroons, it gave them greater attacking opportunities. Their class to finish attacking sets mattered in positive field position. While kept to a lower-than-expected score, they appeared to also play within themselves. Greater fluency is needed in their attack because they can only rely on experience and talent for so long.
Stats that matter
- The Maroons won the Game 3 ‘dead-rubber’ decider 18-14. They have won both Game 3 ‘dead rubbers’ since the match was introduced in 2024.
- The Blues have won 4 out of the past 5 NRLW State of Origin fixtures, while the Maroons have lost 4 of their last 5 games played in Queensland.
Time for the Blues to cash in
They have sealed the series, played within themselves, and face an opponent who is battling a mounting injury toll. The Blues will be out to also make amends for their loss in Game 3 last year. The ‘clean sweep’ has eluded them and there would be no better way to finish than with a commanding victory in this game on their opponents home turf. The Maroons have been spirited in each contest and have played above themselves. Missing Upton at fullback and Robinson on the wing impacts their attack; Weale is also ruled out in the forwards, limiting their defence in the middle. The unchanged team for the Blues is another positive and a show of confidence within this team. They haven’t been far away from breaking the Maroons down and running away with the contest. As the series is concluding and the players are finding consistency, we may about to see that happen. The most recent point is an integral one; the timing of this game means that most players are ‘underdone’. Being the third game of a tough series, the highest quality rugby league is expected. Despite not saluting by a large margin in the first two matches, this will ultimately be the time for the Blues to leave their mark on this series.
Blues -10.5
$1.90 (1.5 units)
NRLW State of Origin Game 3 Same Game Multi
Leg 1 = Total points over 34.5 – despite last game being a low scoring affair, another match will offer greater stability for these players to find their best and finish off attacking movements with poise.
Leg 2 = Sergis to score – she continued her dominance at this level with a try in Game 2 to go with her one in Game 1. Always dangerous, Sergis will again make her opponents miss at key moments and offers great value on the edge.
Leg 3 = Chapman to score – also scoring in Game 2, Chapman is one player benefitting from more time on the field and is growing in confidence. You can expect to see her best in this game and will be a threat on the right edge for the Blues.
Queensland vs New South Wales Betting Odds & Match Info
Date: Thursday 28th May
Location: Cbus Super Stadium, Gold Coast
Time: 7:45pm (AEST)
Odds: Queensland $3.50 vs New South Wales $1.30
Line: +10.5
Points: 34.5
