The final game in Wild Card Weekend sets the stage for a fascinating AFC showdown as the Houston Texans travel to Pittsburgh to face the No. 4 seed Steelers at Acrisure Stadium. Houston is back in the postseason for the third straight year and arrives as one of the league’s hottest teams, while Pittsburgh continues to defy expectations behind veteran quarterback Aaron Rodgers. With two contrasting paths converging under the lights, this matchup feels primed for a memorable playoff battle.
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NFL Wildcard Round: Texans at Steelers Betting Tips
Tuesday, 12:15pm (AEDT)
Pittsburgh Steelers
Pittsburgh enters the playoffs as the No. 4 seed after crafting one of the more unlikely seasons in the league. Behind Aaron Rodgers’ experience and composure, the Steelers found ways to win tight games and stay afloat in a rugged AFC. They are not flashy, but they are resilient, leaning on situational football, defensive toughness and Rodgers’ ability to manage moments rather than dominate them. At home, in a playoff environment, that formula has historically served them well.
Defensively, the Steelers remain physical and opportunistic. They thrive on pressure, winning first down and forcing opponents into uncomfortable third down situations. Mike Tomlin is coaching in his 20th playoff game, and that experience matters in games where momentum swings quickly. Pittsburgh will aim to slow the Texans early, turn this into a trench battle and rely on Rodgers to capitalise when opportunities arise.
Houston Texans
Houston arrives red hot. The Texans closed the regular season with nine straight wins, finishing Week 18 with an impressive 38–30 victory over the Colts. Any early-season rust is long gone, and they are playing their best football at exactly the right time. Under head coach DeMeco Ryans, Houston has built a reputation for peaking late and embracing the postseason stage rather than shrinking from it.
CJ Stroud has been at the centre of that confidence. His playoff résumé is already impressive, having delivered two dominant Wild Card performances in consecutive years. He has remained poised, decisive and largely mistake-free, even against aggressive defenses. Houston’s offense has also found balance through the emergence of rookie running back Woody Marks, who has provided stability, ball security and versatility out of the backfield. Expect the Texans to lean on Marks to keep Pittsburgh honest and allow Stroud to operate in rhythm.
Prediction
This matchup shapes up as a contrast between experience and momentum. Pittsburgh has the veteran quarterback and home-field advantage, but Houston enters with far more offensive rhythm and confidence. DeMeco Ryans has proven he can coach effectively in playoff environments, and his teams have consistently been physical, disciplined and aggressive in these spots.
If the Texans protect Stroud and establish Woody Marks early, they should be able to control tempo and force the Steelers out of their comfort zone. Rodgers will have moments, and Pittsburgh will make this uncomfortable, but over four quarters Houston feels like the more complete and in-form team. My pick is Texans 27, Steelers 20, with Houston’s balance and composure proving decisive under the Monday night lights.
Texans -3
$1.90 (2 Units)
Player Prop
CJ Stroud 250+ Pass Yards ($2.05 at Ladbrokes)
Stroud has shown he elevates in the postseason and this line sits right on his season average, which makes the over appealing in a playoff setting. He finished the regular season with just over 3,000 passing yards, averaging around 217 yards per game, and has been even better in Wild Card games, posting 274 yards in 2023 and 282 yards in 2024. Houston’s nine-game winning streak has still relied on Stroud to sustain drives through the air, and against a Steelers defense that focuses on pressure rather than blanket coverage, this shapes up as another calm, efficient performance where he clears this number without needing a shootout.
Stroud 250+ Pass Yards
$2.34 (1 Unit)
