It’s finals time in the AFLW and there are four matches to look forward to in Week 1 with two qualifying finals and two elimination finals. Action begins on Friday night with the record-breaking North Melbourne taking on Hawthorn at IKON Park. Saturday night follows with Carlton vs West Coast, while Sunday will see a double-header play oout.
Check out our best bets for Week 1 of the AFLW finals below and if you’re keen to follow our tips, then consider joining Bet Right!
2025 AFLW Finals Week 1 Betting Tips
Hawthorn vs North Melbourne
Friday 7:15pm AEDT, IKON Park
The AFLW finals series gets underway with an intriguing First Qualifying Final as minor premiers North Melbourne host Hawthorn at Ikon Park. The Kangaroos are soaring, having clinched the minor premiership with a record-breaking 49-point demolition of these very Hawks just last week. Darren Crocker's team, led by the peerless brilliance of Jasmine Garner and the commanding presence of Tahlia Randall up forward, is the competition's undisputed flag favourite and will be fully refreshed from their week-long break. The focus for North will be maintaining their ruthless, high-pressure system against a side they've thoroughly dominated.
However, finals football is a different beast, and Hawthorn will be burning after their disappointing showing in Round 12. Coach Bec Goddard will have spent the week demanding significant tactical and mental adjustments, especially in the defensive pressure around the contest to stem the flow of North's fast ball movement. With nothing to lose and a finals double-chance secured, the Hawks will play with the intensity and desperation that saw them finish in the top four.
While North Melbourne's class and premiership pedigree should see them ultimately advance, the monster +40.5 point spread is simply too large for a high-stakes Qualifying Final. The Hawks will significantly tighten up their structures, making this a grittier, lower-scoring affair than their recent meeting. They will use the painful lessons from last week to make the Kangaroos earn every single goal.
Hawthorn +40.5
$1.80 (1.5 Units)
Carlton vs West Coast
Saturday 3:05pm AEDT, IKON Park
The first do-or-die clash of the AFLW finals sees Carlton host the West Coast Eagles in an Elimination Final at Ikon Park. The Blues secured the home final with a hard-fought, 20-point victory over the Eagles just last week, setting up this immediate rematch. That Round 12 win saw Carlton's key players stand tall in the final quarter, led by the reliable skills of Darcy Vescio and the strong work of the midfield group, cementing their spot in the top eight. With a clean bill of health, the Blues are primed to take advantage of their home ground.
For the Eagles, this marks a historic moment—their first-ever AFLW finals appearance. Despite the loss to Carlton last week, West Coast backed into the finals thanks to other results and will be keen to show their impressive season was no fluke. Coach Daisy Pearce's side has played with admirable consistency and ferocious pressure throughout the year, but they face a huge hurdle having to travel and overcome the team that just beat them. The task is made tougher by a massive blow to their forward line, with Mikayla Western suffering a season-ending ACL injury in the lead-up.
Given the recent form and the familiar surroundings of Ikon Park, the pendulum swings firmly towards the home side. Carlton showed they could weather West Coast's pressure before breaking the game open late, and the Eagles' injury list, coupled with the emotional drain of their anxious wait for the finals, will likely catch up to them. With a finals environment amplifying the intensity, the Blues' greater experience and scoring power should prevail. Carlton will cover the -10.5 point spread to secure their semi-final spot with a convincing, albeit hard-earned, victory.
Carlton –10.5
$1.88 (2 Units)
Melbourne vs Brisbane
Sunday 1:05pm AEDT, IKON Park
The second Qualifying Final pits two AFLW powerhouses against each other as Melbourne hosts Brisbane in a mouth-watering clash at Ikon Park, securing a double chance for the winner. This final is an immediate rematch of their Round 11 encounter, where the Lions triumphed by just nine points at home, showcasing the razor-thin margin between these two genuine premiership contenders. The Demons, having secured second spot on the ladder, boast a potent midfield led by Kate Hore and Tyla Hanks, and will look to take full advantage of the home ground advantage in this high-stakes contest.
Brisbane enters the finals in hot form, riding a seven-game winning streak and looking to replicate the effort that saw them overcome the Demons less than two weeks ago. The Lions' midfield, featuring the relentless Ally Anderson and Belle Dawes, has been dominant, but their forward line was incredibly wasteful in their last game against Collingwood. Coach Craig Starcevich will be demanding greater accuracy from his goal-kickers, particularly Dakota Davidson, if they are to overcome Melbourne's elite defensive unit.
Historically, matchups between these two sides have been fiercely competitive, often decided by less than a goal. Finals football tends to compress margins, and with a Preliminary Final spot on the line, neither team will give an inch. While the Lions have the recent psychological edge, the Dees' extra gear at Ikon Park and their superior scoring efficiency should prove decisive. Expect a brutal, high-pressure, low-scoring arm-wrestle that goes down to the wire, with the Demos coming away narrow winners.
Melbourne to Win
$1.98 (1.5 Units)
Adelaide vs St Kilda
Sunday 3:05pm AEDT, Norwood Oval
The final match of the opening week of the AFLW finals is a do-or-die Elimination Final as the Adelaide Crows host the history-making St Kilda Saints at Norwood Oval. The Crows, a powerhouse of the competition, scraped into the finals on the back of a vital final-round win and face a massive hurdle with co-captain Chelsea Randall and Niamh Kelly facing race-against-time battles to clear concussion protocols. Adelaide's premiership DNA, led by the relentless drive of Ebony Marinoff and Anne Hatchard, gives them a significant edge, particularly in the unforgiving environment of a home final.
For St Kilda, this is a monumental occasion—their first-ever AFLW finals appearance. Despite a disappointing final-round loss to the Western Bulldogs, the Saints' overall body of work in the home-and-away season has been exceptional, built on a foundation of intense pressure and a dominant midfield performance in contested possessions. They also have the benefit of a significant psychological win, having beaten the Crows convincingly by 22 points back in Round 1. Coach Nick Dal Santo has his team ready to prove they belong on this stage.
While the Crows are the rightful favourites at home, this match-up is shaping up to be a true grind. Finals pressure and the Crows' injury concerns, particularly without the guaranteed presence of a leader like Randall, will undoubtedly tighten the contest. The Saints' superior pressure game and midfield grit, evidenced in their earlier victory, suggests they have the blueprint to stifle Adelaide’s free-flowing attack. The +16.5 point spread is a relatively comfortable buffer for an Elimination Final. Expect the St Kilda Saints to cover the line in a tough, low-scoring battle that will showcase their defensive ferocity.
St Kilda +16.5
$1.90 (1 Unit)
