Six teams remain in the NRLW competition and with a revamped Finals series, 2 teams have the week off while 4 battle it out in sudden death matches. It has been one of the best seasons of the NRLW and the expanded format gives more teams an opportunity to capture the 2025 Premiership. Fans also benefit with the on-field action exhilarating to say the least. With everything to play for, another exciting week of matches is ahead. With tensions high, Before You Bet is here to take a detailed look at each match with the aim of finding you a winner or two to add to your enjoyment.
Check out our preview and NRLW tips for Week 1 of the finals below, and if you're looking for a new Australian sportsbook to try, then why not check out TradieBET for a great range of markets and excellent odds!
NRLW 2025 Finals Week 1 Betting Tips
Newcastle Knights vs Gold Coast Titans (Saturday 2:30pm AEST)
Preview
The Knights finished 3rd on the competition ladder and closed out the regular season nicely with a strong 30-22 victory over the Dragons at home. The 6-try display which ensured home ground advantage this week demonstrated resilience as they were forced to overcome a 16-8 HT deficit. The backbone of this was their 84% completion rate as well as making 8.8m per carry. Their defence was strong too, missing just 24 tackles. The Titans hosted the Raiders and scraped home 17-16 in Golden Point. Far closer than expected, the Titans overcame the exact same HT deficit as the Knights. They too had a strong completion rate (81%) and dominated with 9.1m per carry and 6 line breaks. Their defensive structure was also good, missing just 27 tackles.
Stats that matter
- The Knights have won 5 out of the 6 matches between these two sides.
- The Titans have a better defensive record in season 2025 (17ppg vs 18ppg) but are dangerously outplayed in attack. The Knights average 23ppg compared to the Titans 15ppg.
- The Knights have a 75% strike rate at home; meanwhile, the Titans have never won here in 4 attempted.
Prediction & Tip
The Knights are strong favourites for this game and rightly so. The Titans struggle to score points in attack and are still waiting for the perfect catalyst to spark them in this area. It doesn’t appear forthcoming this week and a team like the Knights has plenty of attacking weapons. The home side will be without key players on the edges but that should matter little the longer this game goes on. The Knights build pressure with pinpoint accuracy in attack and while the Titans are strong in absorbing pressure, this will be relentless over 70 minutes. It will be close though and the Knights should only pull away late, with their superior attack covering the line on offer.
Knights -8.5
$1.90 (2 Units)
North Queensland Cowboys vs Cronulla Sharks (Saturday 4:15pm AEST)
Preview
The Cowboys were dealt an untimely reality check at the hands of the Broncos, defeated 50-4 on the road. The less said about that game, the better; trailing 30-nil at HT, they had to wait until the final 10 minutes to score. This result was no surprise given their 43% share of possession and 75% completion rate, compounded by 13 line breaks conceded and 61 missed tackles. It will take a monumental effort to move past that performance. The Sharks were also defeat on the road, out played 40-10 by the Roosters. Like the Cowboys, they trailed by a large deficit at HT (24-nil) and were struggling for any momentum. They had minimal ball (46% possession) and completed at just 63%. Worse still, they conceded 8 line breaks and missed 36 tackles. Neither team can be please with their Round 11 effort.
Stats that matter
- The Sharks have won 2 out of the 3 games played between these two sides. The Cowboys won for the first time this season over the Sharks 16-14 on the road.
- The Cowboys average the same total of points on both sides of the ball (16ppg). This makes them superior defensively (Sharks 17ppg) but they trail their opponents significantly in attack (Sharks 19ppg).
- Both sides have a 50% record at this ground with the Sharks only playing here twice.
Prediction & Tip
This game is too close to call. Both teams have their positives heading into this game. It is surprising to see the Cowboys make the call to change their halves in such an important game; Tillett is the new halfback replacing Kelly. The Cowboys also receive an important boost with Whitfield returning at fullback; she will add another (previously missing) dimension to their attack. The Sharks are not without their personnel concerns but appear more settled than the Cowboys. In a game like this, that is too close to call, the preferred selection is investing on this game to be a close contest. Either team could win this match, and each may look the possible winner with less than 10 minutes to go. Therefore, much like the previous 2 matches (2-point winning margins), invest on this game being decided by less than a converted try.
Either team by 6.5 points or less
$2.40 (1 Unit)
