Welcome to our preview and horse racing betting tips for racing at Morphettville on Saturday, May 18th.
Saturday marks the final week of the SA carnival, with the Group 1 The Goodwood headlining the meeting. The track is currently rated a Good 4 with the rail out 4m.
We've got tips and comments for every race on the card below!
Best Bet: Race 1 - (3) Absolute Flirt
Best Value: Race 5 - (11) Vinland
Two-year-old race to kick things off and it looks a competitive little race, much the same as it was two weeks ago on Sangster Stakes Day. Sticking with the winner of the race on that day, which was (3) Absolute Flirt. She was a well-backed favourite and fought strongly despite racing wide without cover on speed throughout the race. I don't think the 1200m will pose a problem and she should get an easier run from barrier 2 today. (5) Ginny Ann was a dominant debut winner during the Warrnambool carnival, charging home to win by 2.5L over 1000m. She'll be coming from the back of the field but appears the value at $8.50.
Sticking with (1) Clearly who was desperately unlucky over the mile in the G2 Queen Of The South Stakes last start. She was badly held up from the 500m-200m mark and hit the line well once she eventually got clear. That was just her second Australian start, following another luckless run on debut at Caulfield. Up to 2000m suits and with any luck she'll go very close. (3) Snogging was a huge run in defeat in that same race, hooking extremely wide and running home strongly to be beaten a nose. She looks primed third up at 2000m. (10) Lady Young would have won with another stride or two in the Adelaide Guineas, so she rates as some hope, while (2) Remember The Name was a dominant last-start winner in Melbourne.
(11) Nashville Sound has been dominant in his past two starts and still looks open to plenty of improvement given he's had just eight career starts. The horse is flying and comes into this 2500m race with a good grounding, having won over 2350m last start. He's the most progressive horse in the race so I'll stick with him. The value in the race could be the old boy (2) Olympic Academy at $26. He's had two starts at this track and distance for two wins and getting back onto firm ground should help him go better than he did last start. He beat Thunder Cloud two starts ago. (1) Rock On went very well at Caulfield last start, beaten a nose over 2400m. That was his first start in Australia since April 2017, but he always races well when he comes here so expect him to be very competitive. (13) Future Score won well at the midweeks in Melbourne last start and can measure up.
Another staying race. Sticking with the favourite (2) Nordic Symphony, the $2.25 favourite. She didn't get a lot of luck in the Oaks two weeks ago and prior to that she won at Flemington. She steps up from 2000m to 2500m but I'm confident the stable will have her fit enough for this and she might just have a class edge on the rest of the field. (1) Rock Dove just keeps turning up and running well. This is her 11th run of the preparation. She was 2nd in the VRC St Leger last start behind Transact, so she will have no problems with fitness or the distance, but the form out of that race is questionable. (4) Prism and (15) Skyway Star aren't hopeless.
Three of interest here. (3) Fastnet Tempest got the job done for me last start over 1400m at Flemington and prior to that he ran well in Group company behind Streets of Avalon. He seems to have come good this prep and he finds a winnable race once again today. The clear value is (11) Vinland, who had absolutely no luck whatsoever in defeat last week. He was badly held up until the 150m mark but hit the line hard once he got clear. He's drawn awkwardly but I think the horse is flying and shouldn't be $18. Stablemate (14) East Indiaman looks the big danger to those, with a good run for 3rd in the Adelaide Guineas last start. Drops in weight, Vorster goes on and draws well. Backing Fastnet Tempest and Vinland, saving on East Indiaman.
Borderline impossible race to have any confidence in but there's two at good odds that stand out as bets for me. (6) Nariko was good without much luck first up in Melbourne. She was beaten 1.25L by Milwaukee down the Flemington straight. She's got a good second up record and I think she'll be better suited around a bend. Oliver goes on for Mick Price, she's drawn a touch wide but it's a big field and hopefully that means she's out of trouble. She's capable of winning this at double figure odds. (15) Magna Bella has had the least number of starts in the field but she's a winner. She proved she had a good amount of ability with an impressive victory last weekend. She's another that's drawn wide and she steps up in distance to 1200m, but she's clearly open to plenty of improvement and should run well again.
Happy to get back on the wagon of Spright here after her dominant win in the Sangster Stakes two weeks ago (of course the day I jumped off her). She brought the best formlines to the race on that day but I was just worried that she continued to get herself in trouble and get herself beat, but she proved me wrong. The big field should suit her and I think she's the best sprinter in the race, so if she can get to the outside again, she'll probably win again. (1) Booker is the value at $10. She was the winner of the G1 Oakleigh Plate first up last prep and her overall first up record is outstanding. (10) Iconoclasm is a horse I've always had a big opinion of and I think he can measure up at this level. He won his first start for new trainer Danny O'Brien and there's surely improvement to come. I'd be keeping him very safe. (7) Valour Road proved me wrong with his victory two weeks ago. He will put himself on speed and as he showed last start, he'll keep digging in when horses come at him. (14) Jamaican Rain has won four of her five starts when first up from a spell. (3) Despatch and (8) Cool Passion not hopeless.
Wide-open race to finish off with. 19 runners going around so good luck if you're still in the quaddie! (2) Indian Thunder goes on top for me. He was beaten less than half-a-length by Milwaukee at Flemington last start and returns to Morphettville today - a track he is undefeated at from two starts. He's drawn in barrier 12 but that's not a bad draw in a field like this. Dean Holland and Paul Preusker have proven a deadly combo, particularly in Adelaide. He'll be hard to beat. (3) Dexelation is first up from a long spell but won his last four starts last prep. He's had a stable change so watch the market with him. (9) Extreme Thrill is making its way through the grades, with consecutive wins in recent starts. Jamie Kah takes the ride from a good barrier here so he can continue to progress. (14) Skillful Steps another one to watch at double figure odds.
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