Morphettville Racing Tips: Saturday, May 18th

May 17th 2019, 4:05pm, By: tim_tips

Welcome to our preview and horse racing betting tips for racing at Morphettville on Saturday, May 18th.

Saturday marks the final week of the SA carnival, with the Group 1 The Goodwood headlining the meeting. The track is currently rated a Good 4 with the rail out 4m. 

We've got tips and comments for every race on the card below!

Morphettville Racing Tips: Saturday, May 18th

Best Bet: Race 1 - (3) Absolute Flirt

Best Value: Race 5 - (11) Vinland

Race 1

Two-year-old race to kick things off and it looks a competitive little race, much the same as it was two weeks ago on Sangster Stakes Day. Sticking with the winner of the race on that day, which was (3) Absolute Flirt. She was a well-backed favourite and fought strongly despite racing wide without cover on speed throughout the race. I don't think the 1200m will pose a problem and she should get an easier run from barrier 2 today. (5) Ginny Ann was a dominant debut winner during the Warrnambool carnival, charging home to win by 2.5L over 1000m. She'll be coming from the back of the field but appears the value at $8.50.

TIP:

(3) Absolute Flirt
$2.60

BET NOW AT TAB

Value: (5) Ginny Ann $8.50

Race 2

Sticking with (1) Clearly who was desperately unlucky over the mile in the G2 Queen Of The South Stakes last start. She was badly held up from the 500m-200m mark and hit the line well once she eventually got clear. That was just her second Australian start, following another luckless run on debut at Caulfield. Up to 2000m suits and with any luck she'll go very close. (3) Snogging was a huge run in defeat in that same race, hooking extremely wide and running home strongly to be beaten a nose. She looks primed third up at 2000m. (10) Lady Young would have won with another stride or two in the Adelaide Guineas, so she rates as some hope, while (2) Remember The Name was a dominant last-start winner in Melbourne. 

Race 3

(11) Nashville Sound has been dominant in his past two starts and still looks open to plenty of improvement given he's had just eight career starts. The horse is flying and comes into this 2500m race with a good grounding, having won over 2350m last start. He's the most progressive horse in the race so I'll stick with him. The value in the race could be the old boy (2) Olympic Academy at $26. He's had two starts at this track and distance for two wins and getting back onto firm ground should help him go better than he did last start. He beat Thunder Cloud two starts ago. (1) Rock On went very well at Caulfield last start, beaten a nose over 2400m. That was his first start in Australia since April 2017, but he always races well when he comes here so expect him to be very competitive. (13) Future Score won well at the midweeks in Melbourne last start and can measure up. 

TIP:

(11) Nashville Sound
$4.80

BET NOW AT BetEasy

Value: (2) Olympic Academy $26

 

Race 4

Another staying race. Sticking with the favourite (2) Nordic Symphony, the $2.25 favourite. She didn't get a lot of luck in the Oaks two weeks ago and prior to that she won at Flemington. She steps up from 2000m to 2500m but I'm confident the stable will have her fit enough for this and she might just have a class edge on the rest of the field. (1) Rock Dove just keeps turning up and running well. This is her 11th run of the preparation. She was 2nd in the VRC St Leger last start behind Transact, so she will have no problems with fitness or the distance, but the form out of that race is questionable. (4) Prism and (15) Skyway Star aren't hopeless. 

Race 5

Three of interest here. (3) Fastnet Tempest got the job done for me last start over 1400m at Flemington and prior to that he ran well in Group company behind Streets of Avalon. He seems to have come good this prep and he finds a winnable race once again today. The clear value is (11) Vinland, who had absolutely no luck whatsoever in defeat last week. He was badly held up until the 150m mark but hit the line hard once he got clear. He's drawn awkwardly but I think the horse is flying and shouldn't be $18. Stablemate (14) East Indiaman looks the big danger to those, with a good run for 3rd in the Adelaide Guineas last start. Drops in weight, Vorster goes on and draws well. Backing Fastnet Tempest and Vinland, saving on East Indiaman.

TIP:

(3) Fastnet Tempest
$4.00

BET NOW AT Sportsbet

Value: (11) Vinland $18

Race 6

Borderline impossible race to have any confidence in but there's two at good odds that stand out as bets for me. (6) Nariko was good without much luck first up in Melbourne. She was beaten 1.25L by Milwaukee down the Flemington straight. She's got a good second up record and I think she'll be better suited around a bend. Oliver goes on for Mick Price, she's drawn a touch wide but it's a big field and hopefully that means she's out of trouble. She's capable of winning this at double figure odds. (15) Magna Bella has had the least number of starts in the field but she's a winner. She proved she had a good amount of ability with an impressive victory last weekend. She's another that's drawn wide and she steps up in distance to 1200m, but she's clearly open to plenty of improvement and should run well again. 

TIP:

(6) Nariko
$11

BET NOW AT Bet365

Value: (15) Magna Bella $18

Race 7

Happy to get back on the wagon of Spright here after her dominant win in the Sangster Stakes two weeks ago (of course the day I jumped off her). She brought the best formlines to the race on that day but I was just worried that she continued to get herself in trouble and get herself beat, but she proved me wrong. The big field should suit her and I think she's the best sprinter in the race, so if she can get to the outside again, she'll probably win again. (1) Booker is the value at $10. She was the winner of the G1 Oakleigh Plate first up last prep and her overall first up record is outstanding. (10) Iconoclasm is a horse I've always had a big opinion of and I think he can measure up at this level. He won his first start for new trainer Danny O'Brien and there's surely improvement to come. I'd be keeping him very safe. (7) Valour Road proved me wrong with his victory two weeks ago. He will put himself on speed and as he showed last start, he'll keep digging in when horses come at him. (14) Jamaican Rain has won four of her five starts when first up from a spell. (3) Despatch and (8) Cool Passion not hopeless.

TIP:

(2) Spright
$4.00

BET NOW AT Ladbrokes

Value: (1) Booker $10

Race 8

Wide-open race to finish off with. 19 runners going around so good luck if you're still in the quaddie! (2) Indian Thunder goes on top for me. He was beaten less than half-a-length by Milwaukee at Flemington last start and returns to Morphettville today - a track he is undefeated at from two starts. He's drawn in barrier 12 but that's not a bad draw in a field like this. Dean Holland and Paul Preusker have proven a deadly combo, particularly in Adelaide. He'll be hard to beat. (3) Dexelation is first up from a long spell but won his last four starts last prep. He's had a stable change so watch the market with him. (9) Extreme Thrill is making its way through the grades, with consecutive wins in recent starts. Jamie Kah takes the ride from a good barrier here so he can continue to progress. (14) Skillful Steps another one to watch at double figure odds.

TIPS

Flemington Racing Tips: Saturday, July 4th

It's Flemington Finals day at headquarters in Melbourne this Saturday, July 4th, with a number of big fields and wide open betting markets. Trent Crebbin is looking to continue his good form with his preview and betting tips here! read more

EPL 2019-20: Matchday 33 Preview & Betting Tips

Big weekend of EPL action coming up! The games kick off at 9.30pm on Saturday night and continues until Tuesday morning! We have a full preview and betting tips for the key games across Matchday 33 in the EPL here. read more

Bookie Bag Best Bets - Belmont: Saturday, 4th July

The team at Palmerbet are back with their best bets for Belmont this Saturday, using the Price Push and Race Rescue products available for all Palmerbet customers in The Bookie Bag! read more

AFL Round 5: Saturday Preview & Betting Tips

Round 5 of the AFL season continues on Saturday with a great four game throughout the day! As usual, we have a full preview and betting tips for all four games here read more

ARTICLES

Performance Ratings & Pricing with Julian Vallance with Sportsbet

Julian Vallance from Sportsbet takes us through some of the key factors which he uses with pricing upcoming horse races such as performance ratings. Check out his video from Sportsbet here. read more


What is Over-Round and How do Sportsbooks Make Money?

Over-Round is an important concept for both punters and sportsbooks. It's how Australian sportsbooks make money! All punters should understand over-round, how to spot it, and how to find better value on the Betfair Exchange. read more


Betfair Commissions and Charges

Ever wondered why you can get such great odds at Betfair in comparison to other online bookmakers? We break down why that is the case and why Betfair isn't just for professional punters here read more


What is Lay Betting?

Lay betting is when you’re betting against an event to occur. You’re betting that a horse won’t win a race, a team won’t win a match or your player will lose to their opponent. Find out more about lay betting at Betfair right here. read more


BLOGS

AFL Announces Round 6 & 7 Fixture

With Victoria recently suffering another surge in COVID-19 cases, the AFL has had to restructure the next few rounds of the season. They have officially released the fixture for both Rounds 6 & 7, which can be viewed in full right here read more


2020 AFL Brownlow Medal Votes Round 4

A full round of nine matches are in the books for Round 4 of what has been a crazy 2020 AFL season. Here's our break down of each match and our Round 4 Brownlow vote predictions, as well as a couple of Brownlow betting tips. read more


2020 AFL Round 5 Odds

The Saints beat the Tigers in the upset of the round and after a shuffle of the schedule due to COVID-19 restrictions, they will be back in action in the opening game of Round 5 on Thursday night against the Blues! See the odds for all of the games in Round 5 HERE read more


2020 AFL Brownlow Medal Votes Round 3

We saw some standout performances for Round 3 of the 2020 AFL season with a couple of our early Brownlow betting plays rising to the top of the early Brownlow Medal leaderboard. Check out our AFL Round 3 Brownlow vote predictions here. read more


PlayUp