Welcome to our preview and horse racing betting tips for racing at Morphettville on Saturday, May 1th.
Saturday marks the middle week of the SA carnival, with the Group 1 SA Derby headlining the meeting. The track is currently rated a Soft 7 with the rail out 2m.
We've got tips and comments for every race on the card below!
Best Bet: Race 8 - (3) Parsifal
Best Value: Race 2 - (1) Arkham Knight
Tony McEvoy has a strong hand in the opener with four of the nine runners. Going with (7) You Had Me At Hello on top, who started $5.50 on debut in Listed grade before breaking his maiden by 7L at Gawler last start. Barend Vorster jumps off last-start winner and stablemate (3) Hinchpin to take the ride on You Had Me At Hello, which is a good indicator. Drawn well in barrier 4 and looks hard to beat. ((6) She Shao Fly is the current favourite another stablemate. She's been huge without much luck in her past two starts and looks well suited to the step up to 1400m based on her closing sectionals of late. She'll be hitting the line hard again. Pretty confident the winner will be one of the two market leaders; wouldn't be shocked to see You Had Me At Hello start favourite either.
Four clear standouts here. (1) Arkham Knight looks the best value in the race at $11. He worked home nicely last start to grab 3rd and comes into today third up from a spell. He's got a solid third up record and a solid record at the track too. More importantly, he's proven to go well on wet ground, which is highly likely what he's going to get here. From 13 starts on wet tracks, he's won four and placed in a further five. His only start in this class was a win too. (3) Vinland ran 2nd first up and followed that with a good win last start. He got badly hampered at the 100m mark and still drove through hard to get his nose in front. He's up in grade today but drops heavily in the weights and draws well. His two previous efforts on soft ground can both be ignored and he's won on Heavy, so the wet won't worry him. (4) Debt Collector also comes into this third up after two good efforts. He's failed in two previous third up runs but both can be forgiven. Barrier 1 appears nice but I have a few queries with where he ends up in the run. He's likely going to need plenty of luck, but if it comes he should be right in the finish. (5) Tan Tat Trusting resumed with a 2nd placing at Oakbank and should strip fitter second up here. He should really appreciate the wet ground; he's yet to win from seven starts on Good ground but has three wins and three placings from nine starts on wet tracks. Drawn wide but looks a decent bet at $6.00. Going to take on the two favourites here - both can win but both will need good rides from back in the field. Small plays on Tan Tat Trusting and Arkham Knight.
(1) Tequila Time could turn out to be the best horse in the race but he's up against it here, first up from 12 months off the track and carrying at least 2.5kg more than any other horse. To add to that, there looks to be a fairly hot pace on over the short course here, which could test him out if they choose to get involved with that from barrier 1. That leaves me with (5) Assertive Play on top. It's been a while between drinks - she hasn't won since her debut prep - but she started favourite last start at Flemington and finds a race that suits her today. From six starts on Good ground, she hasn't placed once (they've also been hard races) but she's won both starts on wet ground. This is the first time she's struck a wet track since those two wins in her first preparation, which were also both at this track and distance. Can sit off the hot speed and run over the top of them. (6) Magna Bella could be the value at double figure odds. She only comes off a BM64 win but she's on the rise, draws well and handles the soft ground.
Absolutely nothing stands out here as we've got a lot of horses that have just been battling away without winning. I could potentially entertain a bet on (2) Mazurek at $7.00. She did nothing first up but that was a strong race and she produced a similar sort of performance first up last prep before bouncing back with a win second up. She started from barrier 1 on that day and she gets barrier 1 again here, so expect an aggressive ride out of the gates to have her leading or sitting just behind. (5) Chapel City is a place chance at decent odds. He's placed in all five previous starts when third up from a spell. Outside of that, you could make a case for just about every runner, but it's not a race to get heavily involved in.
If the real (2) Ocean Waltzer turns up today, this race is his. He was a well-backed favourite first up at Oakbank but failed to fire a shot, beaten 11.6L. He was first up from a 21-week spell and resumed at 1900m, so realistically he should be much better suited second up today with the run under his belt. He gets blinkers on for the first time today and with just 11 starts to his name, he really does have the most upside in a race full of well-exposed horses. Given the market support for him first up, it may pay to stick with him today at much better odds. (3) Lostarc took plenty of time to win another race but has now put two wins together in succession. He is rock-hard fit and should take up a position on speed. (4) Tahnee Tiara had no luck whatsoever behind Lostarc last start and should have been right in the finish.
Tricky race. Keen to have something on (3) Muswellbrook at each way odds. His first up run was very good and he pulled up lame last start after sitting wide throughout, so can be forgiven for that performance. That was also a strong race he competed in. He's run 2nd in both previous starts when third up from a spell and his only win came on soft ground so that should suit him. Drawn well, Oliver on board, looks a good hope. (4) Tongsai Boss is also worth having something on. He's undefeated over the mile and gets blinkers reapplied today. The wide gate is some concern but expect him to run well. (11) So We Are drops back to the mile after failing in the Schweppervescence last start. Her form leading into that was good so she shouldn't be discounted. The blowout could be (18) Birdwing for John Sadler. She's only had four career starts and despite still being a maiden, she's showed a bit of talent.
I've been on (2) Mr Quickie at just about every start of his career so it'd be rude to jump off today. He's won eight of his 11 career starts and comes off a comfortable victory at Caulfield over 2000m last start. It's his first attempt at 2500m but he just knows where the winning post is. (6) Classic Wei Wei looks the clear value in the race at $21. The past five winners of this race have all come through the G3 Chairman's Stakes at their previous start; Classic Wei Wei ran third in that race last start and had won three on the bounce prior to that. (3) Declarationofheart was the winner of the Chairman's Stakes. He draws well again today and has to be rated highly based on the strength of the Chairman's in recent years. (5) Secret Blaze has won his past two, and his most recent win was over 2400m, so the distance isn't a concern with him. The horse he beat then came out and won its next start in the VRC St Leger. Backing Mr Quickie and Classic Wei Wei with savers on the other two.
These big fields can sometimes cause boilovers but it looks a race in two between (3) Parsifal and (8) Illumicon. Parsifal has won his first two starts for new trainer Will Clarken, including a fairly dominant performance on soft ground at Warrnambool last start when he was backed off the map. Third up today, conditions no issue and draws well in barrier 4. Looks hard to beat again. Illumicon was desperately unlucky first up. He arguably should have won but was badly held up until the 100m mark. He charged through late when he finally got clear. He's won second up before and his only two wins have both been on soft ground so he'll get things to suit here. The obvious concern is barrier 17 here, but I'd expect to see him go forward from out there. Tough to split the two but the draw puts Parsifal on top for me.
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