Morphettville Racing: South Australian Derby Preview & Betting Tips

May 13th 2016, 7:49pm, By: tim_tips

At Morphettville we have the running of the Group 1 South Australian Derby over 2500m before the conclusion of their carnival next weekend with The Goodwood. The track is currently rated a Good 4 and with clear weather predicted it will remain in the Good range for the Group 1 feature.

UBET South Australian Derby 2500m - Group 1

HOWARD BE THY NAME: Three wins on the trot leading up to this so he could hardly be in better form for a Group 1. His last start win in Group 3 company was impressive and the step up in distance doesn't look like it will pose much of a problem.

ROYAL RUMBLE: Very consistent galloper who won over 1200m earlier in the season and now steps up to 2500m after a solid 2nd behind Howard Be Thy Name last start! Draws beautifully but will get back, query over the distance obviously but he should be thereabouts.

TAARQUIN: Solid win in Melbourne last start which suggested the extra distance was beneficial. Draws to get a great run behind the leaders and the way he went through the line suggests extra distance will once again be fine. Chance.

ETYMOLOGY: Ran 2nd over 2800m behind Cool Chap at Flemington last start in a race where you really would have expected him to be winning. The positive for him is we know he is sure to run out the 2500m, but I would have liked to have seen him win last start.

COOL CHAP: Won over 2800m very comfortably last start but previous to that he was beaten comfortably by Charleviox over 2400m. Drops back in distance here and draws wide but he can go well.

CHARLEVOIX: Pretty impressive win at Sandown last start over Cool Chap when obviously relishing the step up to 2400m. We saw Mick Kent produce Abbey Marie in a Group 1 last week and it could very well be the same result with this lightly raced colt. 

MAIL IT IN: Beaten nearly 5 lengths by Howard Be Thy Name last start but his form previous to that was actually quite good. He'll get a cozy run so if you forgive him for last start he isn't the worst.

RONG DOOR REGGIE: Has been terrible at his past two starts despite some okay efforts previous to that. Very hard to make a case for him off recent runs.

MANHATTAN BOSS: Decent effort to run 3rd behind Howard Be Thy Name last start but would need to improve significantly once again to win this.

BULLISH STOCK: Decent effort behind Cool Chap last start but the drop back to 2500m from 2800m probably doesn't favour him. Sure to get all the favours from barrier 1 but has to improve again.

ASCOT RED: Big win over 2400m last start but he's been doing all his racing in Class 1 company so this is at a whole new level altogether. Each way at best.

TUFF BICKIE: No issues with the 2500m but he's been nowhere near the winner recently despite finishing 5th and 4th at his past two starts. Hard to see him winning this.

ARCADIA DREAM: Thought her run in the Oaks last week was terrific coming from well back in the field to finish 5th. Unfortunately she draws horribly once again but the step up in distance is sure to suit her. Genuine each-way chance.

SACRED EYE: Showed some improvement last start to run 4th in the Oaks. She was another that got back and finished off well and the step up in distance will also suit her. Good track is the key for her and the better barrier is also a big plus.

FIRST IMPRESSIONS: Reared and missed the start in the Oaks so had to come from last which was an impossible task. Still finished off relatively well and with the better draw she can settle much closer if she jumps. 40/1 is a big price.

DROPPED: Not going anywhere near well enough.

Summary

Charlevoix clearly had the upper hand over Cool Chap when they met. Howard Be Thy Name was impressive last start and looks as if he will handle the trip, while Arcadia Dream was one of the runs of the race in the Oaks. Sacred Eye was better in the Oaks and gets the run of the race here, while First Impressions shouldn't be 40/1. Tarquin was good and looks an obvious chance.

1st CHARLEVOIX
2nd ARCADIA DREAM
3rd HOWARD BE THY NAME
4th SACRED EYE

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Take note: Any of the tips in this article are simply the author’s opinion, so bet at your own risk and always gamble responsibly.  Also be sure to check out the Before You Bet Twitter Page for all our thoughts in the lead up to bets! Happy punting!

 

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