Before You Bet's horse racing tip provider @Tim_Tips is back to offer his thoughts on a big night race at Mooney Valley this Friday, March 18th!
William Hill Alister Clark Stakes 2000m - Group 2
Tonight sees the running of the Group 2 Alister Clark Stakes at Moonee Valley for the three-year-olds over 2000m, which acts as a great lead up to Golden Slipper Day at Rosehill tomorrow
The race looks short of depth, mainly due to the strength of those runners at the top of the market. Palentino heads the market at $1.80 to follow up his impressive win in the Group 1 Australian Guineas two weeks ago, with his main competition seemingly coming in the form of progressive Godolphin galloper Tally, who's bidding to win his fourth race in succession. They remain the only two runners under double figures.
There is up to 25mm of rain predicted throughout the day in Melbourne so the track will definitely remain in the Soft to Heavy range.
PALENTINO: Big win in the Australian Guineas and the step up to 2000m here looks no problem. Has previously won on a Soft 6 and being bred by Teofilo he will have no problems with the rain. Drawn well and his form looks much too strong for this lot. Very well weighted under the set weight conditions.
TALLY: Very progressive horse that has won his last three races, the latest of which was at Group 2 level. He won it fairly comfortably and the step up to 2000m will definitely suit him. By Street Cry so should handle the wet. Awkward draw so will need a good ride but he looks right in the mix.
FLYING LIGHT: Racing very well recently, having run top 3 in his last 5 runs. From the good draw he should be able to settle just off the leaders and I expect him to be competitive here. Place chance again.
AYER'S ROCK: Struggling this prep and doesn't look to be going well enough to be able to feature here.
PATCH ADAMS: His last two runs have actually been okay. Two starts back he was held up in the last 100m so should have finished closer and last start he finished 4th despite pulling up lame. Could be a place chance from the inside barrier.
HARDERN: Has been comfortably beaten at his past two and won't be turning the tables on the likes of Tally here. Gets the blinkers back on but would need to improve out of sight.
JADEER: Should be peaking fitness-wise third up from a spell and from barrier 4 it looks like he will lead or sit outside of Top Ravine but he's not in the same league as the top 2 and he hates wet ground.
TOP RAVINE: Backed up consecutive victories with a 3rd placing in the Group 2 behind Talley and Flying Light last start. From barrier 2 he may kick up to hold the rail so expect him to lead or be one back on the rail. Expect him to go well.
WAR LEGEND: Won in benchmark 64 grade last start but this is a huge step up. 2000m will suit him better and he has placed both times on Heavy ground but looks outclassed.
CHARLEVOIX: Pretty interested in this horse.Won on debut at Sandown before taking on Tally and co in a Group 2 last start. He was steadied at the 200m and worked home strongly to finish midfield. The step up to 2000m will be great for him and he rates as a nice each way chance.
Summary
Struggling to see anything beating Palentino here who drops back to Group 2 company following his big win in the Australian Guineas. He's previously won on a Soft 6 and his breeding suggests he will relish the wet ground so I have no concerns there. Well drawn and at set weights he is clearly the one to beat.
Tally is the obvious danger after a convincing win in Group 2 company last start. The wide draw makes things a little tricky for him but he's flying and looks the obvious danger to Palentino. Top Ravine and Flying Light filled the placings behind Tally last start and from their good draws they definitely rate as place chances once again, while Charlevoix will appreciate the step up to 200m and is one to follow going forward.
1st PALENTINO
2nd TALLY
3rd CHARLEVOIX
4th TOP RAVINE
Take note: Any of the tips in this article are simply the author’s opinion, so bet at your own risk and always gamble responsibly. Also be sure to check out the Before You Bet Twitter Page for all our thoughts in the lead up to bets! Happy punting!
