Welcome to our preview and horse racing betting tips for Cox Plate day on Saturday, October 27th.
We have an eight-race card to kick off the Cox Plate Carnival ahead of Saturday’s huge day of racing. The track is rated a Good 4 with the rail in the True position.
Best Bet: Race 3 Savatiano
Best Value Bet: Race 8 Who Shot Thebarman
Hard race to bet into confidently to start things off with a field containing a number of debutants. Wedgetail was sound on debut and gets blinkers applied for today’s race. He and Biscara ran in the placings behind impressive winner Champagne Boom and that horse looks well above average based on what we saw there so the form may prove strong. Biscara was pretty solid in the market in that race and might settle a touch closer from barrier 1 today. Espaaniyah is on debut for the Waterhouse yard with Tim Clark in the saddle. She settled back in the field in her trial but it won’t surprise to see her ridden aggressively here and there’s a good chance the track will favour leaders early.
Four that interest me. Thermal Current was sound first up in a good form race behind Runson, who won dominantly again last night. He’s got a good second up record with four wins from nine starts and has a decent record at the track. D Lane on from barrier 1, hard to beat. Ashlor looks a good price at $8.50. Resumes here and has a very good first up record. Also gets the blinkers reapplied today which suggests he’s forward enough to win. Barrier 10 and Daniel Stackhouse are both negatives but he’s got a good record at the track and looks a good each way play. Desert Lashes has changed stables to Tony McEvoy and returns after four weeks off with bar plates off and tongue tie on. Two big gear changes and her best form would make her very competitive here. Invincible Al is a horse I’ve got plenty of time for and Craig Williams riding for Patrick Payne is a notable jockey booking. Hard to beat.
If Savatiano can settle close enough from barrier 4 and get even luck in the run, she’ll be awfully hard to beat. I think she’s short enough at $2.10 but she does look the standout on paper. Mrs Gardenia started a $5.00 chance last start and although she was disappointing, she has the ability to bounce back. She ran well for 2nd behind I Am A Star two starts back over this track and distance and Lane goes on today. Bring Me Roses is a mare I’ve been keen on for a few weeks now but she keeps being scratched. I think she’s short enough in the market here. Barrier 1 is unlikely to suit her at the Valley. Shoko and Silent Roar are the two likely leaders in the race and the way the Valley played last night will enhance their chances if it’s the same early in the day. Quilate the blowout.
Not a race I like. Causeway Girl appeals at some sort of each way odds after a win at Mornington last start. She’s won both starts when she has led, and the other two starts when she was ridden cold, she hasn’t performed in. If they take her forward from barrier 6, I think she can be competitive. Assertive Play comes out of some strong races but she’s been jumping slowly and if she does that here, she’s going to really struggle. Rainbow Girl has won both starts this prep and bolted in at Bairnsdale last start, where she ran quick time. Large query over the form from that race at Bairnsdale and how it will line up here. Lane riding Into The Abyss for John Thompson second up is a notable jockey booking.
Sunset Watch returned with a strong win at this track and distance first up, taking his career wins to three from five starts. From barrier 2 he’s a good chance of leading this and he’ll be hard to run down. Ringerdingding ran 2nd to Sunset Watch three starts back and backed it up with a win at Bendigo. Did nothing last start but gets the blinkers back on today. Whether the track will suit him is the issue. Wagner struggled at his first start in Melbourne, hanging badly around the home turn at Caulfield. If he struggled there he will probably struggle at Moonee Valley too. Damian Lane takes over on Big Night Out, who has had no luck in recent starts and gets blinkers on for the first time today. Looks a good price at $11. Bleu Roche not hopeless.
Mystic Journey looks a pretty smart filly. She’s won five of her eight starts, including a dominant performance at Caulfield last start. Prior to that she was luckless over 1200m here behind Mutalja and Sweet Rockette. Up to 1600m now which looks to suit and the track by this stage should allow for runners to make ground from back in the field. EL Dorado Dreaming, Fundamentalist, Krone and Anjana all come out of the Thousand Guineas and it’s hard to split all of them. You’d think El Dorado Dreaming probably has more improvement left given she’s only third up but she was disappointing last start. With that said, she did win a G1 third up last prep.
Sir John Lavery was luckless on his Australian debut when checked at a crucial stage in the straight and held up for the most part of it. Second up and up to the mile now, which is the distance of his two career wins. Drawn well in barrier 5, can sit behind a good tempo and be hard to beat at each way odds. Cliff’s Edge is likely to lead and if he gets there comfortably, he’ll be hard to run down. He was very brave in the Toorak Handicap last start when overracing outside the leader. He’s much better suited here and will take plenty of beating. Siege Of Quebec ran 3rd in G1 company last start but he’s been getting back in his races rather than being ridden for speed. If they ride him cold here it probably makes it a bit tough for him but he’s a classy horse with solid Sydney form and can’t be underestimated. Sovereign Nation the blowout third up with blinkers on.
Instead of listing the possible chances (there are any number of those), I’ll single out one I thought was over the odds. Who Shot Thebarman appeals at 20/1. He’s got a terrific record at this distance and his two starts over the track and distance have resulted in a win and a 2nd placing. He’s had some excuses this prep and can be a smokey at big odds.
The Cox Plate. Obviously, they won’t beat Winx but Benbatl is a serious horse and will give her something to chase from out the front. But let’s not be silly, he isn’t in the same league as her and she’ll win and win comfortably. Humidor gets the blinkers on for the first time this prep, the same tactic they used in last year’s race. Avilius could be a decent place bet at $3.40 but whether the inside part of the straight is the place to be come this race is the query. Kings Will Dream gets the blinkers on for the first time after a forgettable Caulfield Cup.
Another very open race to finish off with. Aramayo ran 2nd in the Spring Champion Stakes last start and we’ve seen that form franked through the likes of Thinkin’ Big. Barrier 14 is a query at this track though. Savoire went way too hard out the front last start but if he’s rated a bit better today he can bounce back, especially if the track is still favouring those close to the speed. Approach Discreet has been earmarked as Weir’s Derby horse all prep. He’s been disappointing in recent starts but I probably won’t be dropping off given his grand final is still to come. I’m wary of him improving significantly. Savvy Oak has been finishing a fair way off the leaders recently but hasn’t been running badly. The sectionals from him have been sound; he’s just had things against him. Don’t rule him out at odds.
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