Moonee Valley Racing Tips for Saturday, August 26th

Racing finally returns to Moonee Valley after a few months racing at Flemington and Caulfield. We've seen differing reports this week about how the track will play. One report has said the track will favour leaders, while another has said the rail will be off and lanes 3-6 will be favoured. It may take a few races to determine if any pattern arises.

The track is currently a Good 4, and the weather has no rain forecast so we should remain in that range.

We have betting tips and comments for every race below.

Moonee Valley Racing Tips for Saturday, August 26th

Race 1

Keen to back two Weir runners here but not the favourite YOGI. I'm not convinced this track is going to favour Yogi's racing style. From barrier 9 he will probably settle last, and he's going to have to make a very long and wide looping run, similar to last start, on a track that really won't be easy to do it on. He steps up in grade here to take on some pretty decent horses and at $2.90 I think he's short enough. Keen to back MASTER ZEPHYR. I was against him last start but he convinced me that he's rediscovered his best form, chasing down Kilmanjaro over this distance at Flemington. Before that win he hadn't won at Flemington from nine starts there, while his record at this track is fantastic. Over this track and distance he's won twice and placed once from four starts, so we could even see him improve further today. Should get a sweet run from the good gate, and with the track now a Good 4 it only helps him further. Good price now at $4. I think LORESHO is ready to win, or at least go very close. He took a few runs to get fit and finally showed something last start when only beaten 1.15L behind Aloft in a strong race. He steps up from 2000m to 2500m now, a distance he's only missed a place at once from five starts. He's suited here at $7.50. CHARLEVOIX was the best thing beat last start that you'll ever see. If you backed him there you probably have to back him again, but he failed at his only start at this track and I'm not sure this track suits his racing style. He's another that needs to wind up, though he should be able to sit right up on pace from the good gate. He can go well again. Early money has come for CISMONTANE who will lead.

TIP: Master Zephyr / Loresho EW

Race 2

Very competitive race here for the mares. I'm interested in a few here but I ended up with MERRIEST on top after her sizzling trial at Cranbourne, where she won hard held by 5L. I'd prefer her second up rather than first up but she has won first up before and that trial suggested she is ready to go. From two starts at the track and distance she's won and placed, and the only concern is the wide gate, because there looks to be plenty of speed on here and if she gets caught wide on the speed her chances will be gone. $4.80 is a nice price. FRAGONARD is the horse I'm most scared of. She's first up here and James Cummings is in great form. She won first up in Sydney last prep and went on to be competitive in Group 2 and 3 races. Williams takes the ride from the inside barrier and I'm expecting her to be competitive, but I just wonder whether 1200m is her best distance? She raced up to 1600m last prep and resumed over 1300m last prep, so the query is whether there may be one or two too sharp for her over the shorter trip. The same can be said about LOVANI who is flying, but her recent wins have come over 1600m so the drop back to 1200m is enough for me to avoid her. O'RACHAEL and CHIAVARI are the two value chances in the race. O'Rachael ($11) drops from 1400m back to 1200m which is a big plus, and they will ride her a bit quieter this week so if the early pace is on she can run over the top of them late, while Chiavari ($11) has never missed a place first up. If this were a Soft track I'd be very keen on her but she can still go well on the firm ground. 

TIP: Merriest / O'Rachael EW

Race 3

Small field of seven runners but there's four pretty good fillies involved here and the race could really go to any of them. Landed with TULIP on top who I know will be wound up enough to win this, whereas we don't really know what Limestone and Garrard have done leading into the race. Tulip trialled and finished alongside Formality and Catchy, and we saw both of those come out and perform very well last weekend. That gives me confidence that she's ready to win here, and she's probably got the best credentials on paper. She's won at the track which is a big plus. Short enough at $2.75 in a very competitive race. LIMESTONE is first up here since February - 196 days off the track - and it's hard to know how forward she will be. She actually beat Tulip over 1000m at Caulfield last prep before running 2nd to Catchy by a nose. First time at 1200m and with that time away from the track, she may just find one too sharp. But Weir trains her so she won't be going to the track if she's not ready to run a big race. GARRARD's form stacks up the further you go into it. Last prep she ran 2nd to Catchy, 2nd to Houtzen, beat Sebfire (who is 2/2 this prep), and then ran 2nd to Shoals. Don't underestimate how good that form is. She is also first up from a decent spell (161 days dating back to March) and looks to get a really sweet run from barrier 4. She will probably be the one I save on after backing Tulip. ROOMOOZ flew around in a Flemington jumpout leading into this. I think she's probably a slight bit below the others in terms of class but there's really no knowing how they return in their three-year-old year. This race is definitely one that you could sit out of and watch, because there's so many unknowns, but Tulip is top pick.

TIP: Tulip

Race 4

Really keen on SIN TO WIN here. His Australian debut was eye-catching, steaming home into 3rd over 1400m. The step up to 1600m is ideal and he draws perfectly in barrier 7 to get a good run in midfield. He'll probably be better over 1800m or even 2000m next start, but there's plenty to like about how he profiles for this race. $2.80 for him. I've got SPUNLAGO as the hardest to beat. He charged home behind Jaminzah and Rebellious Lord last start, beaten 0.3L, and gets a 4kg and 1.5kg weight swing on both of those respectively. Should get a great run in midfield from barrier 6 and the horse looks to be flying. REBELLIOUS LORD should go well if he manages to gain a run. Gets a 4kg weight swing on Jaminzah for a 0.2L defeat last start, but his big issue here is the barrier, which sees him map poorly. JAMINZAH has plenty against him today including weight and the barrier, but he's going very well and can run well again. I'll be backing Sin To Win and Spunlago here.

TIP: Sin To Win (Best Bet)

Race 5

Really keen on PACODALI here and I think the $3.80 is a big price. The horse has won three from five this prep, with the only two he lost coming on heavy tracks. He's won his past two starts over 2000m at Flemington, with Master Zephyr franking the form by winning last start. First go at Moonee Valley but the way he races (up on speed) will help him and if we look through the other horses in the market here, it only gives me more confidence. ALMANDIN is first up since winning last year's Melbourne Cup. He's heading towards the Cup again this year so will they have him fit and ready to win first up in August? Doubtful, though I think he will run well enough. SECOND BULLET ran well first up but has only placed twice from eight starts when second up. HANS HOLBEIN is similar to Almandin, but has only placed once from five starts first up. He always improves out of sight second up so wait to back him next start. BLING DYNASTY failed at his first go at 2000m last start so happy to take on again. KILLARNEY KID is the one I think can challenge Pacodali here. Two starts ago he went down by 0.9L  Pacodali and gets a 2kg weight swing on him here. Comes out of a strong race last start, is a winner at the track and distance and draws well. $7.50 is a good price. 

TIP: Pacodali / Killarney Kid EW

Race 6

Really competitive race, and I could make a case for several of these. I've gone with BANDIPUR on top, who has won two from three this prep and bumped into a very smart one in I Did It Again for his only defeat. Last start he went to Adelaide and won in Listed company, can lead or take a nice sit from the good barrier, and looks suited over the 1200m unlike one or two others. I do think there's a bit of value in the race and it wouldn't surprise me to see something at longer odds win. I think CAO CAO profiles really well for this race. He's had a big spruik for a long time and he hasn't delivered on that, but his first up run was reasonable, and the step up to 1200m should suit him here. Gets a small weight swing on Azazel, and his only win came at this track when bolting in by 2.75L. Ridden cold, he can win at $14. The other at double figures who I'm really keen to see is FRANKEL MY DEAR. He was hammered in betting on debut behind Azazel, but the 1000m was clearly too short for him. He hit the line really nicely, though, and 1200m will at least give him more of a chance. I've got him rated a much better chance than $15 so he looks over the odds. AZAZEL was sound when winning first up. First time at 1200m here but can go close again. Several others that could go close.

TIP: Bandipur / Frankel My Dear EW (Best Value)

Race 7

Looks a race in two between HEATHERLY and MISSROCK. Heatherly has a tremendous record at this track and distance, with three wins and three placings from six starts. From the gate she'll probably go straight to the front and she;ll be very tough to run down from there. She is short enough at $2.30 though. At the prices, I'd rather be backing MISSROCK each way given we are getting $7.50 and $2.45 for the place. She's won three out of four when first up from a spell, has got a reasonable record at the distance, and last start ran 2nd in Group 1 company to Vega Magic, beaten 0.7L. We know how good Vega Magic is, so that form lines up very well for this. Draws well and pretty keen at the odds. Look for very sharp improvement from KEEN ARRAY, definitely one to include at $12. He went backwards on the heavy track first up but he can turn that around on the firm ground here. 

TIP: Missrock EW

Race 8

I hate the jockey booking and would much rather have seen a senior jockey on board here, but DUKE OF BRUNSWICK goes on top. He's had two good runs behind Ability to start the prep and now gets out 1500m at his third run back. his third up record is very good with three wins and two placings from five starts. Barrier 10 is tricky and that's why with the 3kg apprentice on I'm slightly concerned, but $3.90 is a reasonable price all things considered. Half of the field is first up from a spell here and there's a few completely out of form, so he's got race fitness and form on his side. RAW IMPULSE is the big watch. First up for 317 days. 1500m is about as short as he'd want it and there's no doubt his best will be over further, but he's got plenty of talent and started $8 in the Group 1 Turnbull Stakes behind Hartnell and Jameka last prep. NOZOMI, HERE TO THERE and NESBO are value chances. Plenty to watch in this race going towards the Spring!

TIP: Duke Of Brunswick

Race 9

Keen to take on the favourite OAK DOOR here and there's two I'm interested in. The first is OBERLAND who I thought would run a big race first up (and the market suggested so too) but he was held up the entire straight and went to the line under a strangehold. Drops heavily in weight here with the rise in class, but he gets Damian Lane on board for Weir and he won second up last prep. Expecting him to give this a real shake at $4.80. ROCKET TOMMY was my best bet last start but he was slow away and his race was all over after that. He wasn't fully tested to the line and I think we can excuse him. He needs to jump straight to the front and lead, and if he can do that here he will be very tough to run down. First time at 1200m is a query but the horse is very talented. $8 looks a nice price. HAY BALE can't be ruled out. He should have gone close last start and the jockey change is a big plus.

TIP: Oberland / Rocket Tommy EW

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