Welcome to our horse racing preview and betting tips for racing at Moonee Valley on Saturday, August 1st.
The first Melbourne race day of the new season takes place at Moonee Valley, as we build towards the Cox Plate carnival in the Spring! The track is currently rated a Soft 5 with the rail in the true position. Expect an upgrade throughout the day.
Trent Crebbin has previewed every race on the card below!
Best Bet: Race 1 - (6) Victoria Star
Next Best: Race 7 - (7) Polly Grey
Best Value: Race 6 - (1) Wagner, (also backing (4) Sir Kalahad)
First race of the new season. Tactics and the track will be key in the field of seven. I’ve seen a lot of people keen to take on (6) Victoria Star and I hope they do, because we’ll only get a better price. The horse is flying and ticked the 1600m box last start in my opinion, running 3rd in the Winter Championship final after settling back in the field. Narrowly behind him was (1) Vassilator who tried to make his run with Victoria Star but was tight for room. It’s hard to say who would’ve finished in front, but Victoria Star was comfortably holding Vassilator through the line. Victoria Star was only 3rd up there and with the mile run under his belt, along with a generous 3kg advantage from that race, it’s hard to see Vassilator turning the tables. Newitt should be able to roll forward with the long run to the first turn and lob one out one back. He’d prefer it wet, but I still think Victoria Star wins and happy to play late. Next best (2) Al Galayel who was good last start but looks short at $3.60.
Tricky one. The obvious is (4) Theresabearinthere over from SA. The horse is 2/3, both wins over the 1000m with a failure in between when caught wide on speed. Neindorf should take him straight to the front, and any on pace bias around The Valley would only help. I’m not particularly keen on taking even money, but outside of him it’s tough. (1) Hard Landing likely sits outside the favourite. His debut run down the straight was very good beating Tagaloa. He failed in the Blue Diamond Prelude and was spelled. (2) Tanker is a big watch off a gelding operation. His debut win at Caulfield over 1000m was excellent but will go back from the barrier. Expect (8) Diesel ‘n’ Dust to take a sit as he did when dominant last start at Wodonga. Really struggled to find an angle here. If Theresabearinthere got to $3 on the day I’d be interested, otherwise I’ll side with Tanker who might be able to get moving early and descend off a hot speed.
Over the short course again here, this time for the fillies. It’s hard to look past the favourite (8) Peggy Selene. Her two runs this preparation have been outstanding. First up against a field of debutants she led and gave nothing else a look, winning by nearly 4L. She then drew the carpark at Sandown and sat 5 wide on speed, looking home 200m out before getting nabbed on the line by Parlophone, who then came out and won very impressively in the Lightning Stakes at Morphettville. With a kinder run there, Peggy Selene would’ve won comfortably. Mcneil jumps back on and from barrier 4 she should get every chance. Keeping her company on speed will be (5) Clean Machine who was run down at Caulfield over 1100m on a leader’s track. I thought (4) Miss Bosetti had her chance in the Sandown race. She was tight for room over the concluding stages, but there was a gap for her in the straight and she couldn’t accelerate when needed.
Easily the most interesting runner of the day in the form of (4) Brooklyn Hustle. She looked a superstar in the making on debut at this track and distance, jumping slowly before settling last on the fence. She picked her way through the field before exploding at the 200m and winning by 2L eased down, running the fastest sectionals of the day and beating a handy enough Everest winner in Yes Yes Yes. Put simply, she’s lengths better than these and if half wound up and with clear air, she wins. Her jumpout was very quiet which scares me, as does barrier 4. I’d much prefer her drawn out and take luck out of the equation, but I still think she’ll be too good. Plenty of pace in the race from (1) A Good Yarn, (6) Fill The Flute and (3) Iknewshewasmine. Count me out of (7) Propelle. I haven’t backed her all preparation and she’s given no reason to do so because she simply doesn’t win. (2) Fight second pick off a good run behind the handy Bumper Blast at Flemington. Brooklyn Hustle or bust for me.
No real interest in backing (3) Sovereign Award, although there is a lot to like. She was dominant first up, Olly sticks and she draws perfectly. These mare’s races are always so open and she’s not much better than these. I think the play is (7) West Wind, who actually beat home the favourite and (2) Arctic Shock at Flemington last preparation. West Wind led for the first time in her life last start and raced greenly with a 3kg apprentice on board, basically throwing the race away. Teo Nugent jumps on here for a bit more experience, and from barrier 2 she should get a nice run behind the speed at over double the price of the favourite. (8) Brimm is very consistent and isn’t the worst place bet. She probably leads and will be in it for a long time. The Boomstock form lines up well through the mare Ocean Miss, who started $5.50 in the Rivette Final. Backing West Wind, and having something on Brimm, mainly the place.
I was keen on (10) Wilmot Pass last start at Flemington and he got the job done at $4.50, but I have to be against here in a harder race at half the price. He looks too short but is the horse to beat. There are two I want to make a case for at double figure odds. The first is (4) Sir Kalahad at $12. He did get an easy lead at Sandown and had the favours, but he won by a dominant 5 lengths and the form out of the race is excellent with More Than Exceed winning the Mildura Cup next start and Global Gift running a narrow 2nd to the handy Howlowcanyougo. There’s more pressure here, but he draws to have first use of the rail and will give a huge sight. The second horse I think is value is (1) Wagner. This horse has a few convictions and has gone under at short odds numerous times, but I can’t work out why he’s $21 here. He’s at his best on good tracks and has won at The Valley before. He did start $51 last start but was beaten under 2L and beat home the likes of Great Again and More Than Exceed. Barrier 1 probably isn’t ideal but with a bit of luck he looks a great price. (7) Titan Blinders is a promising sort who will try and come across from out wide. He wasn’t far off King Of Hastings over 1200m last preparation which is good form for this. Not sure if he’s an out and out sprinter, and first up I’d rather just watch but wouldn’t be shocked if he won.
Over the Cox Plate trip here. Good to see Damien Lane back in Australia, and I think (7) Polly Grey can give him his first winner. The horse has been building fitness with two solid runs before being given a poor ride by Thornton over 2000m, getting shuffled back and held up before running the fastest last 400/200m of the race. Fourth up now for Chris Waller is usually a recipe for success, she just needs a good steer and clear air from Lane to be too good here. Any rain on the day would help too. (4) Mirimar maps well on pace and beat Sirrconi last start, who Polly Grey ran 2nd to in the Winter Final. (1) Mahamedeis is on the backup and down nearly 400m in distance but will be positive again. No reason he can’t continue winning, but with 4kg less I’m pretty confident Polly Grey gets over the top and the $4.40 available is more than fair.
Good luck. If you’re a quaddie punter, go wide because this is very tough. I’m hoping Lane got the last winner and is up and about, because (8) Falls isn’t hopeless at big odds. Both runs this preparation on wet ground have been average, pulling up with issues last start. The horse won 3rd up last preparation in a handy enough race, and the return to firmer ground should help. He’ll need a bit of luck from the barrier but shouldn’t be too disadvantaged at this point in the day. His form from last preparation actually ties in easily with SA galloper and current favourite (2) Winning Partner. He’s an obvious hope but Will Price will have a tough ride from barrier 2 and looks more than short enough. An interesting runner is (1) Skelm first up who will be better over further but did take on some good races last time in, only beaten 2.2L by Oceanex and King of Leogrance. (5) Tatunka is absolutely flying, his first loss in four runs coming at the hands of Tavidance when carrying 59kg. He maps nicely midfield from barrier 5 and is racing too well to ignore. Backing both Tatunka and Falls in a very tough race.
Interesting race. The resuming (2) Sebrakate ran 2nd to Bivouac first up last preparation, albeit beaten over 4L. His form around Dalasan and Super Seth is also lengths better than this. If he’d drawn a few barriers out I’d be keener, because I’m not sure where he gets to from the inside. I expect the first couples of lanes to be chopping up towards the end of the day which won’t suit. I don’t think he has the speed to lead those, although he has led/raced on pace before. The favourite (19) Hypersonic probably won’t get a run as 5th emergency and if he does make the field, I’d be more than happy to lay him up to 1200m. (9) Proper Rogue was unlucky first up before being well backed at Flemington and putting in an average run behind Wilmot Pass. Not sure about him and he’s tough to back off last start. One that can improve lengths is (7) Montenegro Man. First up he struck a heavy track behind Alfa Oro, second up he ran down the straight over 1000m which brings a lot of horses undone and last start struck another very heavy track. His dry track 1200m form is good enough to win this, including a huge run from near last behind Lord Von Costa and a win over Bam’s On Fire. He draws wide here but with a bit of luck and a cart into the race I reckon he’s a great chance. I’ll be backing Montenegro Man and having something on Sebrakate late in the betting.
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